Modelling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on stroke mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa
Identifieur interne : 000F13 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000F12; suivant : 000F14Modelling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on stroke mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa
Auteurs : Mercy Manyema [Afrique du Sud] ; Lennert J. Veerman ; Aviva Tugendhaft [Afrique du Sud] ; Demetre Labadarios [Afrique du Sud] ; Karen J. Hofman [Afrique du Sud]Source :
- BMC Public Health [ 1471-2458 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
Stroke poses a growing human and economic burden in South Africa. Excess sugar consumption, especially from sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), has been associated with increased obesity and stroke risk. Research shows that price increases for SSBs can influence consumption and modelling evidence suggests that taxing SSBs has the potential to reduce obesity and related diseases. This study estimates the potential impact of an SSB tax on stroke-related mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa.
A proportional multi-state life table-based model was constructed in Microsoft Excel (2010). We used consumption data from the 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own and cross price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations to estimate changes in daily energy intake and BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Stroke relative risk, and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study, were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on the burden of stroke.
Our model predicts that an SSB tax may avert approximately 72 000 deaths, 550 000 stroke-related health-adjusted life years and over ZAR5 billion, (USD400 million) in health care costs over 20 years (USD296-576 million). Over 20 years, the number of incident stroke cases may be reduced by approximately 85 000 and prevalent cases by about 13 000.
Fiscal policy has the potential, as part of a multi-faceted approach, to mitigate the growing burden of stroke in South Africa and contribute to the achievement of the target set by the Department of Health to reduce relative premature mortality (less than 60 years) from non-communicable diseases by the year 2020.
The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-016-3085-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/s12889-016-3085-y
PubMed: 27240422
PubMed Central: 4886444
Affiliations:
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Veerman</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff2">School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland Australia</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Queensland Australia</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tugendhaft, Aviva" sort="Tugendhaft, Aviva" uniqKey="Tugendhaft A" first="Aviva" last="Tugendhaft">Aviva Tugendhaft</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="Aff1">PRICELESS-SA, MRC/Wits Rural Public, Health and Health Transitions Research Unit, School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>PRICELESS-SA, MRC/Wits Rural Public, Health and Health Transitions Research Unit, School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université du Witwatersrand</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Johannesbourg</settlement><region type="region" nuts="2">Gauteng</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Labadarios, Demetre" sort="Labadarios, Demetre" uniqKey="Labadarios D" first="Demetre" last="Labadarios">Demetre Labadarios</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff3">Population Health, Health Systems and Innovation (PHHSI), Human Sciences Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Population Health, Health Systems and Innovation (PHHSI), Human Sciences Research Council, Cape Town</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Cape Town</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hofman, Karen J" sort="Hofman, Karen J" uniqKey="Hofman K" first="Karen J." last="Hofman">Karen J. Hofman</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="Aff1">PRICELESS-SA, MRC/Wits Rural Public, Health and Health Transitions Research Unit, School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>PRICELESS-SA, MRC/Wits Rural Public, Health and Health Transitions Research Unit, School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université du Witwatersrand</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Johannesbourg</settlement><region type="region" nuts="2">Gauteng</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">BMC Public Health</title><idno type="eISSN">1471-2458</idno><imprint><date when="2016">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>Stroke poses a growing human and economic burden in South Africa. Excess sugar consumption, especially from sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), has been associated with increased obesity and stroke risk. Research shows that price increases for SSBs can influence consumption and modelling evidence suggests that taxing SSBs has the potential to reduce obesity and related diseases. This study estimates the potential impact of an SSB tax on stroke-related mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>A proportional multi-state life table-based model was constructed in Microsoft Excel (2010). We used consumption data from the 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own and cross price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations to estimate changes in daily energy intake and BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Stroke relative risk, and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study, were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on the burden of stroke.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Our model predicts that an SSB tax may avert approximately 72 000 deaths, 550 000 stroke-related health-adjusted life years and over ZAR5 billion, (USD400 million) in health care costs over 20 years (USD296-576 million). Over 20 years, the number of incident stroke cases may be reduced by approximately 85 000 and prevalent cases by about 13 000.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Fiscal policy has the potential, as part of a multi-faceted approach, to mitigate the growing burden of stroke in South Africa and contribute to the achievement of the target set by the Department of Health to reduce relative premature mortality (less than 60 years) from non-communicable diseases by the year 2020.</p></sec><sec><title>Electronic supplementary material</title><p>The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-016-3085-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Krishnamurthi, Rv" uniqKey="Krishnamurthi R">RV Krishnamurthi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Feigin, Vl" uniqKey="Feigin V">VL Feigin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Forouzanfar, Mh" 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E" uniqKey="Wentze Viljoen E">E Wentze-Viljoen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tollman, S" uniqKey="Tollman S">S Tollman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hofman, K" uniqKey="Hofman K">K Hofman</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Afrique du Sud</li></country><region><li>Gauteng</li></region><settlement><li>Johannesbourg</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université du Witwatersrand</li></orgName></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Veerman, Lennert J" sort="Veerman, Lennert J" uniqKey="Veerman L" first="Lennert J." last="Veerman">Lennert J. Veerman</name></noCountry><country name="Afrique du Sud"><region name="Gauteng"><name sortKey="Manyema, Mercy" sort="Manyema, Mercy" uniqKey="Manyema M" first="Mercy" last="Manyema">Mercy Manyema</name></region><name sortKey="Hofman, Karen J" sort="Hofman, Karen J" uniqKey="Hofman K" first="Karen J." last="Hofman">Karen J. Hofman</name><name sortKey="Labadarios, Demetre" sort="Labadarios, Demetre" uniqKey="Labadarios D" first="Demetre" last="Labadarios">Demetre Labadarios</name><name sortKey="Tugendhaft, Aviva" sort="Tugendhaft, Aviva" uniqKey="Tugendhaft A" first="Aviva" last="Tugendhaft">Aviva Tugendhaft</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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