Two decades of mortality change in rural northeast South Africa.
Identifieur interne : 000817 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000816; suivant : 000818Two decades of mortality change in rural northeast South Africa.
Auteurs : Chodziwadziwa W. Kabudula ; Stephen Tollman ; Paul Mee ; Sizzy Ngobeni ; Bernard Silaule ; F Xavier G Mez-Olivé ; Mark Collinson ; Kathleen Kahn ; Peter ByassSource :
- Global health action [ 1654-9880 ] ; 2014.
Abstract
Background The MRC/Wits University Agincourt research centre, part of the INDEPTH Network, has documented mortality in a defined population in the rural northeast of South Africa for 20 years (1992-2011) using long-term health and socio-demographic surveillance. Detail on the unfolding, at times unpredicted, mortality pattern has been published. This experience is reviewed here and updated using more recent data. Objective To present a review and summary of mortality patterns across all age-sex groups in the Agincourt sub-district population for the period 1992-2011 as a comprehensive basis for public health action. Design Vital events in the Agincourt population have been updated in annual surveys undertaken since 1992. All deaths have been rigorously recorded and followed by verbal autopsy interviews. Responses to questions from these interviews have been processed retrospectively using the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy standard and the InterVA-4 model for assigning causes of death in a standardised manner. Results Between 1992 and 2011, a total of 12,209 deaths were registered over 1,436,195 person-years of follow-up, giving a crude mortality rate of 8.5 per 1,000 person-years. During the 20-year period, the population experienced a major HIV epidemic, which resulted in more than doubling of overall mortality for an extended period. Recent years show signs of declining mortality, but levels remain above the 1992 baseline recorded using the surveillance system. Conclusions The Agincourt population has experienced a major mortality shock over the past two decades from which it will take time to recover. The basic epidemic patterns are consistent with generalised mortality patterns observed in South Africa as a whole, but the detailed individual surveillance behind these analyses allows finer-grained analyses of specific causes, age-related risks, and trends over time. These demonstrate the complex, somewhat unpredicted course of mortality transition over the years since the dawn of South Africa's democratic era in 1994.
DOI: 10.3402/gha.v7.25596
PubMed: 28672454
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Two decades of mortality change in rural northeast South Africa.</title><author><name sortKey="Kabudula, Chodziwadziwa W" sort="Kabudula, Chodziwadziwa W" uniqKey="Kabudula C" first="Chodziwadziwa W" last="Kabudula">Chodziwadziwa W. Kabudula</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tollman, Stephen" sort="Tollman, Stephen" uniqKey="Tollman S" first="Stephen" last="Tollman">Stephen Tollman</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mee, Paul" sort="Mee, Paul" uniqKey="Mee P" first="Paul" last="Mee">Paul Mee</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ngobeni, Sizzy" sort="Ngobeni, Sizzy" uniqKey="Ngobeni S" first="Sizzy" last="Ngobeni">Sizzy Ngobeni</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Silaule, Bernard" sort="Silaule, Bernard" uniqKey="Silaule B" first="Bernard" last="Silaule">Bernard Silaule</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="G Mez Olive, F Xavier" sort="G Mez Olive, F Xavier" uniqKey="G Mez Olive F" first="F Xavier" last="G Mez-Olivé">F Xavier G Mez-Olivé</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Collinson, Mark" sort="Collinson, Mark" uniqKey="Collinson M" first="Mark" last="Collinson">Mark Collinson</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kahn, Kathleen" sort="Kahn, Kathleen" uniqKey="Kahn K" first="Kathleen" last="Kahn">Kathleen Kahn</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Byass, Peter" sort="Byass, Peter" uniqKey="Byass P" first="Peter" last="Byass">Peter Byass</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2014">2014</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:28672454</idno><idno type="pmid">28672454</idno><idno type="doi">10.3402/gha.v7.25596</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000817</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000817</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Two decades of mortality change in rural northeast South Africa.</title><author><name sortKey="Kabudula, Chodziwadziwa W" sort="Kabudula, Chodziwadziwa W" uniqKey="Kabudula C" first="Chodziwadziwa W" last="Kabudula">Chodziwadziwa W. Kabudula</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tollman, Stephen" sort="Tollman, Stephen" uniqKey="Tollman S" first="Stephen" last="Tollman">Stephen Tollman</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mee, Paul" sort="Mee, Paul" uniqKey="Mee P" first="Paul" last="Mee">Paul Mee</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ngobeni, Sizzy" sort="Ngobeni, Sizzy" uniqKey="Ngobeni S" first="Sizzy" last="Ngobeni">Sizzy Ngobeni</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Silaule, Bernard" sort="Silaule, Bernard" uniqKey="Silaule B" first="Bernard" last="Silaule">Bernard Silaule</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="G Mez Olive, F Xavier" sort="G Mez Olive, F Xavier" uniqKey="G Mez Olive F" first="F Xavier" last="G Mez-Olivé">F Xavier G Mez-Olivé</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Collinson, Mark" sort="Collinson, Mark" uniqKey="Collinson M" first="Mark" last="Collinson">Mark Collinson</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kahn, Kathleen" sort="Kahn, Kathleen" uniqKey="Kahn K" first="Kathleen" last="Kahn">Kathleen Kahn</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Byass, Peter" sort="Byass, Peter" uniqKey="Byass P" first="Peter" last="Byass">Peter Byass</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Global health action</title><idno type="eISSN">1654-9880</idno><imprint><date when="2014" type="published">2014</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Background The MRC/Wits University Agincourt research centre, part of the INDEPTH Network, has documented mortality in a defined population in the rural northeast of South Africa for 20 years (1992-2011) using long-term health and socio-demographic surveillance. Detail on the unfolding, at times unpredicted, mortality pattern has been published. This experience is reviewed here and updated using more recent data. Objective To present a review and summary of mortality patterns across all age-sex groups in the Agincourt sub-district population for the period 1992-2011 as a comprehensive basis for public health action. Design Vital events in the Agincourt population have been updated in annual surveys undertaken since 1992. All deaths have been rigorously recorded and followed by verbal autopsy interviews. Responses to questions from these interviews have been processed retrospectively using the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy standard and the InterVA-4 model for assigning causes of death in a standardised manner. Results Between 1992 and 2011, a total of 12,209 deaths were registered over 1,436,195 person-years of follow-up, giving a crude mortality rate of 8.5 per 1,000 person-years. During the 20-year period, the population experienced a major HIV epidemic, which resulted in more than doubling of overall mortality for an extended period. Recent years show signs of declining mortality, but levels remain above the 1992 baseline recorded using the surveillance system. Conclusions The Agincourt population has experienced a major mortality shock over the past two decades from which it will take time to recover. The basic epidemic patterns are consistent with generalised mortality patterns observed in South Africa as a whole, but the detailed individual surveillance behind these analyses allows finer-grained analyses of specific causes, age-related risks, and trends over time. These demonstrate the complex, somewhat unpredicted course of mortality transition over the years since the dawn of South Africa's democratic era in 1994.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">28672454</PMID><DateCreated><Year>2017</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>04</Day></DateCreated><DateRevised><Year>2017</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>04</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1654-9880</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>7</Volume><Issue>1</Issue><PubDate><Year>2014</Year><Month>Dec</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Global health action</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Glob Health Action</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Two decades of mortality change in rural northeast South Africa.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>25596</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.3402/gha.v7.25596</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Background The MRC/Wits University Agincourt research centre, part of the INDEPTH Network, has documented mortality in a defined population in the rural northeast of South Africa for 20 years (1992-2011) using long-term health and socio-demographic surveillance. Detail on the unfolding, at times unpredicted, mortality pattern has been published. This experience is reviewed here and updated using more recent data. Objective To present a review and summary of mortality patterns across all age-sex groups in the Agincourt sub-district population for the period 1992-2011 as a comprehensive basis for public health action. Design Vital events in the Agincourt population have been updated in annual surveys undertaken since 1992. All deaths have been rigorously recorded and followed by verbal autopsy interviews. Responses to questions from these interviews have been processed retrospectively using the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy standard and the InterVA-4 model for assigning causes of death in a standardised manner. Results Between 1992 and 2011, a total of 12,209 deaths were registered over 1,436,195 person-years of follow-up, giving a crude mortality rate of 8.5 per 1,000 person-years. During the 20-year period, the population experienced a major HIV epidemic, which resulted in more than doubling of overall mortality for an extended period. Recent years show signs of declining mortality, but levels remain above the 1992 baseline recorded using the surveillance system. Conclusions The Agincourt population has experienced a major mortality shock over the past two decades from which it will take time to recover. The basic epidemic patterns are consistent with generalised mortality patterns observed in South Africa as a whole, but the detailed individual surveillance behind these analyses allows finer-grained analyses of specific causes, age-related risks, and trends over time. These demonstrate the complex, somewhat unpredicted course of mortality transition over the years since the dawn of South Africa's democratic era in 1994.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kabudula</LastName><ForeName>Chodziwadziwa W</ForeName><Initials>CW</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>b INDEPTH Network Accra , Ghana.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Tollman</LastName><ForeName>Stephen</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>b INDEPTH Network Accra , Ghana.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>c Umeå Centre for Global Health Research, Division of Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine , Umeå University , Umeå , Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Mee</LastName><ForeName>Paul</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>c Umeå Centre for Global Health Research, Division of Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine , Umeå University , Umeå , Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ngobeni</LastName><ForeName>Sizzy</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Silaule</LastName><ForeName>Bernard</ForeName><Initials>B</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gómez-Olivé</LastName><ForeName>F Xavier</ForeName><Initials>FX</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>b INDEPTH Network Accra , Ghana.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Collinson</LastName><ForeName>Mark</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>b INDEPTH Network Accra , Ghana.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>c Umeå Centre for Global Health Research, Division of Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine , Umeå University , Umeå , Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kahn</LastName><ForeName>Kathleen</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>b INDEPTH Network Accra , Ghana.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>c Umeå Centre for Global Health Research, Division of Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine , Umeå University , Umeå , Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Byass</LastName><ForeName>Peter</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>a MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , South Africa.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>b INDEPTH Network Accra , Ghana.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>c Umeå Centre for Global Health Research, Division of Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine , Umeå University , Umeå , Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>Glob Health Action</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101496665</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1654-9880</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Africa</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Agincourt</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">HIV/AIDS</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">INDEPTH Network</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">InterVA</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">mortality</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">non-communicable diseases</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">rural</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">tuberculosis</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">verbal autopsy</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2017</Year><Month>7</Month><Day>5</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2014</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>1</Day><Hour>0</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2014</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>1</Day><Hour>0</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">28672454</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.3402/gha.v7.25596</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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