The Age Pattern of Increases in Mortality Affected by HIV: Bayesian Fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to Data from the Agincourt HDSS Field Site in Rural Northeast South Africa.
Identifieur interne : 000624 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 000623; suivant : 000625The Age Pattern of Increases in Mortality Affected by HIV: Bayesian Fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to Data from the Agincourt HDSS Field Site in Rural Northeast South Africa.
Auteurs : David J. Sharrow [Royaume-Uni] ; Samuel J. Clark [Royaume-Uni] ; Mark A. Collinson [Royaume-Uni] ; Kathleen Kahn [Royaume-Uni] ; Stephen M. Tollman [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Demographic research [ 1435-9871 ] ; 2013.
Abstract
We investigate the sex-age-specific changes in the mortality of a prospectively monitored rural population in South Africa. We quantify changes in the age pattern of mortality in a parsimonious way by estimating the eight parameters of the Heligman-Pollard (HP) model of age-specific mortality. In its traditional form this model is difficult to fit and does not account for uncertainty.
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.39
PubMed: 24453696
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">The Age Pattern of Increases in Mortality Affected by HIV: Bayesian Fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to Data from the Agincourt HDSS Field Site in Rural Northeast South Africa.</title><author><name sortKey="Sharrow, David J" sort="Sharrow, David J" uniqKey="Sharrow D" first="David J" last="Sharrow">David J. Sharrow</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London, UK (Samuel J. Clark).</nlm:affiliation><country>Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Clark, Samuel J" sort="Clark, Samuel J" uniqKey="Clark S" first="Samuel J" last="Clark">Samuel J. Clark</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London, UK (Samuel J. Clark).</nlm:affiliation><country>Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Collinson, Mark A" sort="Collinson, Mark A" uniqKey="Collinson M" first="Mark A" last="Collinson">Mark A. Collinson</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London, UK (Samuel J. Clark).</nlm:affiliation><country>Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kahn, Kathleen" sort="Kahn, Kathleen" uniqKey="Kahn K" first="Kathleen" last="Kahn">Kathleen Kahn</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London, UK (Samuel J. Clark).</nlm:affiliation><country>Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tollman, Stephen M" sort="Tollman, Stephen M" uniqKey="Tollman S" first="Stephen M" last="Tollman">Stephen M. Tollman</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London, UK (Samuel J. Clark).</nlm:affiliation><country>Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2013">2013</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:24453696</idno><idno type="pmid">24453696</idno><idno type="doi">10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.39</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000678</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000678</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000678</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000678</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000678</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000678</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000624</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">The Age Pattern of Increases in Mortality Affected by HIV: Bayesian Fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to Data from the Agincourt HDSS Field Site in Rural Northeast South Africa.</title><author><name sortKey="Sharrow, David J" sort="Sharrow, David J" uniqKey="Sharrow D" first="David J" last="Sharrow">David J. Sharrow</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London, UK (Samuel J. Clark).</nlm:affiliation><country>Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Clark, Samuel J" sort="Clark, Samuel J" uniqKey="Clark S" first="Samuel J" last="Clark">Samuel J. Clark</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London, UK (Samuel J. Clark).</nlm:affiliation><country>Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Collinson, Mark A" sort="Collinson, Mark A" uniqKey="Collinson M" first="Mark A" last="Collinson">Mark A. Collinson</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London, UK (Samuel J. Clark).</nlm:affiliation><country>Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kahn, Kathleen" sort="Kahn, Kathleen" uniqKey="Kahn K" first="Kathleen" last="Kahn">Kathleen Kahn</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London, UK (Samuel J. Clark).</nlm:affiliation><country>Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tollman, Stephen M" sort="Tollman, Stephen M" uniqKey="Tollman S" first="Stephen M" last="Tollman">Stephen M. Tollman</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London, UK (Samuel J. Clark).</nlm:affiliation><country>Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Demographic research</title><idno type="ISSN">1435-9871</idno><imprint><date when="2013" type="published">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">We investigate the sex-age-specific changes in the mortality of a prospectively monitored rural population in South Africa. We quantify changes in the age pattern of mortality in a parsimonious way by estimating the eight parameters of the Heligman-Pollard (HP) model of age-specific mortality. In its traditional form this model is difficult to fit and does not account for uncertainty.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">24453696</PMID><DateCreated><Year>2014</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>23</Day></DateCreated><DateRevised><Year>2017</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>02</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">1435-9871</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>29</Volume><PubDate><Year>2013</Year><Month>Dec</Month><Day>03</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Demographic research</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Demogr Res</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>The Age Pattern of Increases in Mortality Affected by HIV: Bayesian Fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to Data from the Agincourt HDSS Field Site in Rural Northeast South Africa.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>1039-1096</MedlinePgn></Pagination><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">We investigate the sex-age-specific changes in the mortality of a prospectively monitored rural population in South Africa. We quantify changes in the age pattern of mortality in a parsimonious way by estimating the eight parameters of the Heligman-Pollard (HP) model of age-specific mortality. In its traditional form this model is difficult to fit and does not account for uncertainty.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="OBJECTIVE" NlmCategory="OBJECTIVE">1. To quantify changes in the sex-age pattern of mortality experienced by a population with endemic HIV. 2. To develop and demonstrate a robust Bayesian estimation method for the HP model that accounts for uncertainty.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">Bayesian estimation methods are adapted to work with the HP model. Temporal changes in parameter values are related to changes in HIV prevalence.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">Over the period when the HIV epidemic in South Africa was growing, mortality in the population described by our data increased profoundly with losses of life expectancy of ~15 years for both males and females. The temporal changes in the HP parameters reflect in a parsimonious way the changes in the age pattern of mortality. We develop a robust Bayesian method to estimate the eight parameters of the HP model and thoroughly demonstrate it.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Changes in mortality in South Africa over the past fifteen years have been profound. The HP model can be fit well using Bayesian methods, and the results can be useful in developing a parsimonious description of changes in the age pattern of mortality.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="COMMENTS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">The motivating aim of this work is to develop new methods that can be useful in applying the HP eight-parameter model of age-specific mortality. We have done this and chosen an interesting application to demonstrate the new methods.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sharrow</LastName><ForeName>David J</ForeName><Initials>DJ</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London, UK (Samuel J. Clark).</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Clark</LastName><ForeName>Samuel J</ForeName><Initials>SJ</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London, UK (Samuel J. Clark).</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Collinson</LastName><ForeName>Mark A</ForeName><Initials>MA</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London, UK (Samuel J. Clark).</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kahn</LastName><ForeName>Kathleen</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London, UK (Samuel J. Clark).</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Tollman</LastName><ForeName>Stephen M</ForeName><Initials>SM</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Sociology, University of Washington (David J. Sharrow & Samuel J. Clark); Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA (Samuel J. Clark); MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden (Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman), INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana (Samuel J. Clark, Mark A. Collinson, Kathleen Kahn and Stephen M. Tollman) and ALPHA Network, London, UK (Samuel J. Clark).</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>R01 HD054511</GrantID><Acronym>HD</Acronym><Agency>NICHD NIH HHS</Agency><Country>United States</Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>WT069683</GrantID><Agency>Wellcome Trust</Agency><Country>United Kingdom</Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>WT058893/Z/99/A</GrantID><Agency>Wellcome Trust</Agency><Country>United Kingdom</Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>R24 HD042828</GrantID><Acronym>HD</Acronym><Agency>NICHD NIH HHS</Agency><Country>United States</Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>R01 HD070936</GrantID><Acronym>HD</Acronym><Agency>NICHD NIH HHS</Agency><Country>United States</Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Germany</Country><MedlineTA>Demogr 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PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2014</Year><Month>1</Month><Day>24</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2014</Year><Month>1</Month><Day>24</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24453696</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.39</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC3896243</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="mid">NIHMS539250</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><pmc-dir>nihms</pmc-dir>
</PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Royaume-Uni</li></country><region><li>Angleterre</li><li>Grand Londres</li></region><settlement><li>Londres</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de Washington</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Royaume-Uni"><region name="Angleterre"><name sortKey="Sharrow, David J" sort="Sharrow, David J" uniqKey="Sharrow D" first="David J" last="Sharrow">David J. Sharrow</name></region><name sortKey="Clark, Samuel J" sort="Clark, Samuel J" uniqKey="Clark S" first="Samuel J" last="Clark">Samuel J. Clark</name><name sortKey="Collinson, Mark A" sort="Collinson, Mark A" uniqKey="Collinson M" first="Mark A" last="Collinson">Mark A. Collinson</name><name sortKey="Kahn, Kathleen" sort="Kahn, Kathleen" uniqKey="Kahn K" first="Kathleen" last="Kahn">Kathleen Kahn</name><name sortKey="Tollman, Stephen M" sort="Tollman, Stephen M" uniqKey="Tollman S" first="Stephen M" last="Tollman">Stephen M. Tollman</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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