Replication Validity of Initial Association Studies: A Comparison between Psychiatry, Neurology and Four Somatic Diseases
Identifieur interne : 000173 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000172; suivant : 000174Replication Validity of Initial Association Studies: A Comparison between Psychiatry, Neurology and Four Somatic Diseases
Auteurs : Estelle Dumas-Mallet [France] ; Katherine Button [Royaume-Uni] ; Thomas Boraud [France] ; Marcus Munafo [Royaume-Uni] ; François Gonon [France]Source :
- PLoS ONE [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
There are growing concerns about effect size inflation and replication validity of association studies, but few observational investigations have explored the extent of these problems.
Using meta-analyses to measure the reliability of initial studies and explore whether this varies across biomedical domains and study types (cognitive/behavioral, brain imaging, genetic and “others”).
We analyzed 663 meta-analyses describing associations between markers or risk factors and 12 pathologies within three biomedical domains (psychiatry, neurology and four somatic diseases). We collected the effect size, sample size, publication year and Impact Factor of initial studies, largest studies (i.e., with the largest sample size) and the corresponding meta-analyses. Initial studies were considered as replicated if they were in nominal agreement with meta-analyses and if their effect size inflation was below 100%.
Nominal agreement between initial studies and meta-analyses regarding the presence of a significant effect was not better than chance in psychiatry, whereas it was somewhat better in neurology and somatic diseases. Whereas effect sizes reported by largest studies and meta-analyses were similar, most of those reported by initial studies were inflated. Among the 256 initial studies reporting a significant effect (p<0.05) and paired with significant meta-analyses, 97 effect sizes were inflated by more than 100%. Nominal agreement and effect size inflation varied with the biomedical domain and study type. Indeed, the replication rate of initial studies reporting a significant effect ranged from 6.3% for genetic studies in psychiatry to 86.4% for cognitive/behavioral studies. Comparison between eight subgroups shows that replication rate decreases with sample size and “true” effect size. We observed no evidence of association between replication rate and publication year or Impact Factor.
The differences in reliability between biological psychiatry, neurology and somatic diseases suggest that there is room for improvement, at least in some subdomains.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0158064
PubMed: 27336301
PubMed Central: 4919034
Affiliations:
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last="Boraud">Thomas Boraud</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>CNRS, UMR 5293, Institute of Neurodegenerative diseases, Bordeaux, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>CNRS, UMR 5293, Institute of Neurodegenerative diseases, Bordeaux</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Nouvelle-Aquitaine</region><region type="old region">Aquitaine</region><settlement type="city">Bordeaux</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>University of Bordeaux, UMR 5293, Institute of Neurodegenerative diseases, Bordeaux, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>University of Bordeaux, UMR 5293, Institute of Neurodegenerative diseases, Bordeaux</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Nouvelle-Aquitaine</region><region type="old region">Aquitaine</region><settlement type="city">Bordeaux</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff006"><addr-line>CHU Bordeaux, Bordeaux, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>CHU Bordeaux, Bordeaux</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Nouvelle-Aquitaine</region><region type="old region">Aquitaine</region><settlement type="city">Bordeaux</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Munafo, Marcus" sort="Munafo, Marcus" uniqKey="Munafo M" first="Marcus" last="Munafo">Marcus Munafo</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff005"><addr-line>MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Bristol</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gonon, Francois" sort="Gonon, Francois" uniqKey="Gonon F" first="François" last="Gonon">François Gonon</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>CNRS, UMR 5293, Institute of Neurodegenerative diseases, Bordeaux, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>CNRS, UMR 5293, Institute of Neurodegenerative diseases, Bordeaux</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Nouvelle-Aquitaine</region><region type="old region">Aquitaine</region><settlement type="city">Bordeaux</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>University of Bordeaux, UMR 5293, Institute of Neurodegenerative diseases, Bordeaux, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>University of Bordeaux, UMR 5293, Institute of Neurodegenerative diseases, Bordeaux</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Nouvelle-Aquitaine</region><region type="old region">Aquitaine</region><settlement type="city">Bordeaux</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS ONE</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2016">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec id="sec001"><title>Context</title><p>There are growing concerns about effect size inflation and replication validity of association studies, but few observational investigations have explored the extent of these problems.</p></sec><sec id="sec002"><title>Objective</title><p>Using meta-analyses to measure the reliability of initial studies and explore whether this varies across biomedical domains and study types (cognitive/behavioral, brain imaging, genetic and “others”).</p></sec><sec id="sec003"><title>Methods</title><p>We analyzed 663 meta-analyses describing associations between markers or risk factors and 12 pathologies within three biomedical domains (psychiatry, neurology and four somatic diseases). We collected the effect size, sample size, publication year and Impact Factor of initial studies, largest studies (i.e., with the largest sample size) and the corresponding meta-analyses. Initial studies were considered as replicated if they were in nominal agreement with meta-analyses and if their effect size inflation was below 100%.</p></sec><sec id="sec004"><title>Results</title><p>Nominal agreement between initial studies and meta-analyses regarding the presence of a significant effect was not better than chance in psychiatry, whereas it was somewhat better in neurology and somatic diseases. Whereas effect sizes reported by largest studies and meta-analyses were similar, most of those reported by initial studies were inflated. Among the 256 initial studies reporting a significant effect (p<0.05) and paired with significant meta-analyses, 97 effect sizes were inflated by more than 100%. Nominal agreement and effect size inflation varied with the biomedical domain and study type. Indeed, the replication rate of initial studies reporting a significant effect ranged from 6.3% for genetic studies in psychiatry to 86.4% for cognitive/behavioral studies. Comparison between eight subgroups shows that replication rate decreases with sample size and “true” effect size. We observed no evidence of association between replication rate and publication year or Impact Factor.</p></sec><sec id="sec005"><title>Conclusion</title><p>The differences in reliability between biological psychiatry, neurology and somatic diseases suggest that there is room for improvement, at least in some subdomains.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ioannidis, Jp" uniqKey="Ioannidis J">JP Ioannidis</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Sarewitz, D" uniqKey="Sarewitz D">D Sarewitz</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Munafo, M" uniqKey="Munafo M">M Munafo</name></author><author><name sortKey="Noble, S" uniqKey="Noble S">S Noble</name></author><author><name sortKey="Browne, Wj" uniqKey="Browne W">WJ Browne</name></author><author><name sortKey="Brunner, D" uniqKey="Brunner D">D Brunner</name></author><author><name 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Garattini</name></author><author><name sortKey="Grant, J" uniqKey="Grant J">J Grant</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gulmezoglu, Am" uniqKey="Gulmezoglu A">AM Gulmezoglu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ioannidis, Jp" uniqKey="Ioannidis J">JP Ioannidis</name></author><author><name sortKey="Greenland, S" uniqKey="Greenland S">S Greenland</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hlatky, Ma" uniqKey="Hlatky M">MA Hlatky</name></author><author><name sortKey="Khoury, Mj" uniqKey="Khoury M">MJ Khoury</name></author><author><name sortKey="Macleod, Mr" uniqKey="Macleod M">MR Macleod</name></author><author><name sortKey="Moher, D" uniqKey="Moher D">D Moher</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lewandowsky, S" uniqKey="Lewandowsky S">S Lewandowsky</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bishop, D" uniqKey="Bishop D">D Bishop</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>France</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li></country><region><li>Aquitaine</li><li>Nouvelle-Aquitaine</li></region><settlement><li>Bordeaux</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="France"><region name="Nouvelle-Aquitaine"><name sortKey="Dumas Mallet, Estelle" sort="Dumas Mallet, Estelle" uniqKey="Dumas Mallet E" first="Estelle" last="Dumas-Mallet">Estelle Dumas-Mallet</name></region><name sortKey="Boraud, Thomas" sort="Boraud, Thomas" uniqKey="Boraud T" first="Thomas" last="Boraud">Thomas Boraud</name><name sortKey="Boraud, Thomas" sort="Boraud, Thomas" uniqKey="Boraud T" first="Thomas" last="Boraud">Thomas Boraud</name><name sortKey="Boraud, Thomas" sort="Boraud, Thomas" uniqKey="Boraud T" first="Thomas" last="Boraud">Thomas Boraud</name><name sortKey="Dumas Mallet, Estelle" sort="Dumas Mallet, Estelle" uniqKey="Dumas Mallet E" first="Estelle" last="Dumas-Mallet">Estelle Dumas-Mallet</name><name sortKey="Dumas Mallet, Estelle" sort="Dumas Mallet, Estelle" uniqKey="Dumas Mallet E" first="Estelle" last="Dumas-Mallet">Estelle Dumas-Mallet</name><name sortKey="Gonon, Francois" sort="Gonon, Francois" uniqKey="Gonon F" first="François" last="Gonon">François Gonon</name><name sortKey="Gonon, Francois" sort="Gonon, Francois" uniqKey="Gonon F" first="François" last="Gonon">François Gonon</name></country><country name="Royaume-Uni"><noRegion><name sortKey="Button, Katherine" sort="Button, Katherine" uniqKey="Button K" first="Katherine" last="Button">Katherine Button</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Munafo, Marcus" sort="Munafo, Marcus" uniqKey="Munafo M" first="Marcus" last="Munafo">Marcus Munafo</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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