Was mandatory quarantine necessary in China for controlling the 2009 H1N1 pandemic?
Identifieur interne : 000938 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 000937; suivant : 000939Was mandatory quarantine necessary in China for controlling the 2009 H1N1 pandemic?
Auteurs : Xinhai Li [République populaire de Chine] ; Wenjun Geng ; Huidong Tian ; Dejian LaiSource :
- International journal of environmental research and public health [ 1660-4601 ] ; 2013.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- législation et jurisprudence : Quarantaine.
- mortalité : Grippe humaine.
- épidémiologie : Chine, Grippe humaine.
- Analyse coût-bénéfice, Facteurs temps, Grippe humaine, Humains, Modèles biologiques, Pandémies, Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A.
- Wicri :
- geographic : République populaire de Chine.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- legislation & jurisprudence : Quarantine.
- mortality : Influenza, Human.
- prevention & control : Influenza, Human, Pandemics.
- Cost-Benefit Analysis, Humans, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Models, Biological, Time Factors.
Abstract
The Chinese government enforced mandatory quarantine for 60 days (from 10 May to 8 July 2009) as a preventative strategy to control the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Such a prevention strategy was stricter than other non-pharmaceutical interventions that were carried out in many other countries. We evaluated the effectiveness of the mandatory quarantine and provide suggestions for interventions against possible future influenza pandemics. We selected one city, Beijing, as the analysis target. We reviewed the epidemiologic dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the implementation of quarantine measures in Beijing. The infectious population was simulated under two scenarios (quarantined and not quarantined) using a deterministic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. The basic reproduction number R0 was adjusted to match the epidemic wave in Beijing. We found that mandatory quarantine served to postpone the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Beijing by one and a half months. If mandatory quarantine was not enforced in Beijing, the infectious population could have reached 1,553 by 21 October, i.e., 5.6 times higher than the observed number. When the cost of quarantine is taken into account, mandatory quarantine was not an economically effective intervention approach against the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We suggest adopting mitigation methods for an influenza pandemic with low mortality and morbidity.
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph10104690
PubMed: 24084677
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humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Cost-Benefit Analysis</term><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term><term>Models, Biological</term><term>Time Factors</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Analyse coût-bénéfice</term><term>Facteurs temps</term><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles biologiques</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>République populaire de Chine</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The Chinese government enforced mandatory quarantine for 60 days (from 10 May to 8 July 2009) as a preventative strategy to control the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Such a prevention strategy was stricter than other non-pharmaceutical interventions that were carried out in many other countries. We evaluated the effectiveness of the mandatory quarantine and provide suggestions for interventions against possible future influenza pandemics. We selected one city, Beijing, as the analysis target. We reviewed the epidemiologic dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the implementation of quarantine measures in Beijing. The infectious population was simulated under two scenarios (quarantined and not quarantined) using a deterministic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. The basic reproduction number R0 was adjusted to match the epidemic wave in Beijing. We found that mandatory quarantine served to postpone the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Beijing by one and a half months. If mandatory quarantine was not enforced in Beijing, the infectious population could have reached 1,553 by 21 October, i.e., 5.6 times higher than the observed number. When the cost of quarantine is taken into account, mandatory quarantine was not an economically effective intervention approach against the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We suggest adopting mitigation methods for an influenza pandemic with low mortality and morbidity. </div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">24084677</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2014</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>28</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2018</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>13</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1660-4601</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>10</Volume><Issue>10</Issue><PubDate><Year>2013</Year><Month>Sep</Month><Day>30</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>International journal of environmental research and public health</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Int J Environ Res Public Health</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Was mandatory quarantine necessary in China for controlling the 2009 H1N1 pandemic?</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>4690-700</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.3390/ijerph10104690</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>The Chinese government enforced mandatory quarantine for 60 days (from 10 May to 8 July 2009) as a preventative strategy to control the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Such a prevention strategy was stricter than other non-pharmaceutical interventions that were carried out in many other countries. We evaluated the effectiveness of the mandatory quarantine and provide suggestions for interventions against possible future influenza pandemics. We selected one city, Beijing, as the analysis target. We reviewed the epidemiologic dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the implementation of quarantine measures in Beijing. The infectious population was simulated under two scenarios (quarantined and not quarantined) using a deterministic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. The basic reproduction number R0 was adjusted to match the epidemic wave in Beijing. We found that mandatory quarantine served to postpone the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Beijing by one and a half months. If mandatory quarantine was not enforced in Beijing, the infectious population could have reached 1,553 by 21 October, i.e., 5.6 times higher than the observed number. When the cost of quarantine is taken into account, mandatory quarantine was not an economically effective intervention approach against the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. 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