Feedback Between Behavioral Adaptations and Disease Dynamics.
Identifieur interne : 000258 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 000257; suivant : 000259Feedback Between Behavioral Adaptations and Disease Dynamics.
Auteurs : Jiangzhuo Chen [États-Unis] ; Achla Marathe [États-Unis] ; Madhav Marathe [États-Unis]Source :
- Scientific reports [ 2045-2322 ] ; 2018.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Antiviraux (usage thérapeutique), Grippe humaine (traitement médicamenteux), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Humains, Modèles économiques, Pandémies, Perception, Population, Population rurale, Population urbaine, Prestations des soins de santé, Prévalence, Revenu, Réseautage social, Rétroaction, Secteur privé, Secteur public, Simulation numérique, Virus de la grippe A (physiologie), États-Unis d'Amérique (épidémiologie).
- MESH :
- physiologie : Virus de la grippe A.
- traitement médicamenteux : Grippe humaine.
- usage thérapeutique : Antiviraux.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine, États-Unis d'Amérique.
- Humains, Modèles économiques, Pandémies, Perception, Population, Population rurale, Population urbaine, Prestations des soins de santé, Prévalence, Revenu, Réseautage social, Rétroaction, Secteur privé, Secteur public, Simulation numérique.
- Wicri :
- geographic : États-Unis.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Antiviral Agents (therapeutic use), Computer Simulation, Delivery of Health Care, Feedback, Humans, Income, Influenza A virus (physiology), Influenza, Human (drug therapy), Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Models, Economic, Pandemics, Perception, Population, Prevalence, Private Sector, Public Sector, Rural Population, Social Networking, United States (epidemiology), Urban Population.
- MESH :
- chemical , therapeutic use : Antiviral Agents.
- geographic , epidemiology : United States.
- drug therapy : Influenza, Human.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- physiology : Influenza A virus.
- Computer Simulation, Delivery of Health Care, Feedback, Humans, Income, Models, Economic, Pandemics, Perception, Population, Prevalence, Private Sector, Public Sector, Rural Population, Social Networking, Urban Population.
Abstract
We study the feedback processes between individual behavior, disease prevalence, interventions and social networks during an influenza pandemic when a limited stockpile of antivirals is shared between the private and the public sectors. An economic model that uses prevalence-elastic demand for interventions is combined with a detailed social network and a disease propagation model to understand the feedback mechanism between epidemic dynamics, market behavior, individual perceptions, and the social network. An urban and a rural region are simulated to assess the robustness of results. Results show that an optimal split between the private and public sectors can be reached to contain the disease but the accessibility of antivirals from the private sector is skewed towards the richest income quartile. Also, larger allocations to the private sector result in wastage where individuals who do not need it are able to purchase it but who need it cannot afford it. Disease prevalence increases with household size and total contact time but not by degree in the social network, whereas wastage of antivirals decreases with degree and contact time. The best utilization of drugs is achieved when individuals with high contact time use them, who tend to be the school-aged children of large families.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-30471-0
PubMed: 30127447
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An economic model that uses prevalence-elastic demand for interventions is combined with a detailed social network and a disease propagation model to understand the feedback mechanism between epidemic dynamics, market behavior, individual perceptions, and the social network. An urban and a rural region are simulated to assess the robustness of results. Results show that an optimal split between the private and public sectors can be reached to contain the disease but the accessibility of antivirals from the private sector is skewed towards the richest income quartile. Also, larger allocations to the private sector result in wastage where individuals who do not need it are able to purchase it but who need it cannot afford it. Disease prevalence increases with household size and total contact time but not by degree in the social network, whereas wastage of antivirals decreases with degree and contact time. 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An economic model that uses prevalence-elastic demand for interventions is combined with a detailed social network and a disease propagation model to understand the feedback mechanism between epidemic dynamics, market behavior, individual perceptions, and the social network. An urban and a rural region are simulated to assess the robustness of results. Results show that an optimal split between the private and public sectors can be reached to contain the disease but the accessibility of antivirals from the private sector is skewed towards the richest income quartile. Also, larger allocations to the private sector result in wastage where individuals who do not need it are able to purchase it but who need it cannot afford it. Disease prevalence increases with household size and total contact time but not by degree in the social network, whereas wastage of antivirals decreases with degree and contact time. 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