School dismissal as a pandemic influenza response: When, where and for how long?
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Auteurs : Timothy C. Germann [États-Unis] ; Hongjiang Gao [États-Unis] ; Manoj Gambhir ; Andrew Plummer [États-Unis] ; Matthew Biggerstaff [États-Unis] ; Carrie Reed [États-Unis] ; Amra Uzicanin [États-Unis]Source :
- Epidemics [ 1878-0067 ] ; 2019.
Abstract
We used individual-based computer simulation models at community, regional and national levels to evaluate the likely impact of coordinated pre-emptive school dismissal policies during an influenza pandemic. Such policies involve three key decisions: when, over what geographical scale, and how long to keep schools closed. Our evaluation includes uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, as well as model output uncertainties arising from variability in serial intervals and presumed modifications of social contacts during school dismissal periods. During the period before vaccines become widely available, school dismissals are particularly effective in delaying the epidemic peak, typically by 4-6 days for each additional week of dismissal. Assuming the surveillance is able to correctly and promptly diagnose at least 5-10% of symptomatic individuals within the jurisdiction, dismissals at the city or county level yield the greatest reduction in disease incidence for a given dismissal duration for all but the most severe pandemic scenarios considered here. Broader (multi-county) dismissals should be considered for the most severe and fast-spreading (1918-like) pandemics, in which multi-month closures may be necessary to delay the epidemic peak sufficiently to allow for vaccines to be implemented.
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100348
PubMed: 31235334
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Manoj Gambhir<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333 USA; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Victoria 3800 Australia.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Victoria 3800 Australia</wicri:noCountry></affiliation>Le document en format XML
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Germann</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Nouveau-Mexique</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gao, Hongjiang" sort="Gao, Hongjiang" uniqKey="Gao H" first="Hongjiang" last="Gao">Hongjiang Gao</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Community Interventions for Infection Control Unit, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329 USA. Electronic address: hgao@cdc.gov.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Community Interventions for Infection Control Unit, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gambhir, Manoj" sort="Gambhir, Manoj" uniqKey="Gambhir M" first="Manoj" last="Gambhir">Manoj Gambhir</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333 USA; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Victoria 3800 Australia.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Victoria 3800 Australia</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Plummer, Andrew" sort="Plummer, Andrew" uniqKey="Plummer A" first="Andrew" last="Plummer">Andrew Plummer</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Community Interventions for Infection Control Unit, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329 USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Community Interventions for Infection Control Unit, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Biggerstaff, Matthew" sort="Biggerstaff, Matthew" uniqKey="Biggerstaff M" first="Matthew" last="Biggerstaff">Matthew Biggerstaff</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333 USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Reed, Carrie" sort="Reed, Carrie" uniqKey="Reed C" first="Carrie" last="Reed">Carrie Reed</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333 USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Uzicanin, Amra" sort="Uzicanin, Amra" uniqKey="Uzicanin A" first="Amra" last="Uzicanin">Amra Uzicanin</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Community Interventions for Infection Control Unit, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329 USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Community Interventions for Infection Control Unit, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Epidemics</title><idno type="eISSN">1878-0067</idno><imprint><date when="2019" type="published">2019</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">We used individual-based computer simulation models at community, regional and national levels to evaluate the likely impact of coordinated pre-emptive school dismissal policies during an influenza pandemic. Such policies involve three key decisions: when, over what geographical scale, and how long to keep schools closed. Our evaluation includes uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, as well as model output uncertainties arising from variability in serial intervals and presumed modifications of social contacts during school dismissal periods. During the period before vaccines become widely available, school dismissals are particularly effective in delaying the epidemic peak, typically by 4-6 days for each additional week of dismissal. Assuming the surveillance is able to correctly and promptly diagnose at least 5-10% of symptomatic individuals within the jurisdiction, dismissals at the city or county level yield the greatest reduction in disease incidence for a given dismissal duration for all but the most severe pandemic scenarios considered here. Broader (multi-county) dismissals should be considered for the most severe and fast-spreading (1918-like) pandemics, in which multi-month closures may be necessary to delay the epidemic peak sufficiently to allow for vaccines to be implemented.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="In-Process" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">31235334</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>20</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1878-0067</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>28</Volume><PubDate><Year>2019</Year><Month>09</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Epidemics</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Epidemics</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>School dismissal as a pandemic influenza response: When, where and for how long?</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>100348</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S1755-4365(18)30174-9</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100348</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>We used individual-based computer simulation models at community, regional and national levels to evaluate the likely impact of coordinated pre-emptive school dismissal policies during an influenza pandemic. Such policies involve three key decisions: when, over what geographical scale, and how long to keep schools closed. Our evaluation includes uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, as well as model output uncertainties arising from variability in serial intervals and presumed modifications of social contacts during school dismissal periods. During the period before vaccines become widely available, school dismissals are particularly effective in delaying the epidemic peak, typically by 4-6 days for each additional week of dismissal. Assuming the surveillance is able to correctly and promptly diagnose at least 5-10% of symptomatic individuals within the jurisdiction, dismissals at the city or county level yield the greatest reduction in disease incidence for a given dismissal duration for all but the most severe pandemic scenarios considered here. Broader (multi-county) dismissals should be considered for the most severe and fast-spreading (1918-like) pandemics, in which multi-month closures may be necessary to delay the epidemic peak sufficiently to allow for vaccines to be implemented.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Published by Elsevier B.V.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Germann</LastName><ForeName>Timothy C</ForeName><Initials>TC</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gao</LastName><ForeName>Hongjiang</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Community Interventions for Infection Control Unit, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329 USA. Electronic address: hgao@cdc.gov.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gambhir</LastName><ForeName>Manoj</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333 USA; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Victoria 3800 Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Plummer</LastName><ForeName>Andrew</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Community Interventions for Infection Control Unit, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329 USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Biggerstaff</LastName><ForeName>Matthew</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333 USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Reed</LastName><ForeName>Carrie</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333 USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Uzicanin</LastName><ForeName>Amra</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Community Interventions for Infection Control Unit, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329 USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>CC999999</GrantID><Acronym>ImCDC</Acronym><Agency>Intramural CDC HHS</Agency><Country>United States</Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013486">Research Support, U.S. Gov't, 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