Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland.
Identifieur interne : 001B00 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 001A99; suivant : 001B01Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland.
Auteurs : Gerardo Chowell ; Catherine E. Ammon ; Nicolas W. Hengartner ; James M. HymanSource :
- Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE [ 1547-1063 ] ; 2007.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Switzerland.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- methods : Risk Assessment.
- statistics & numerical data : Disease Outbreaks.
- Humans, Incidence, Models, Biological, Population Dynamics, Risk Factors.
Abstract
At the outset of an influenza pandemic, early estimates of the number of secondary cases generated by a primary influenza case (reproduction number, R) and its associated uncertainty can help determine the intensity of interventions necessary for control. Using a compartmental model and hospital notification data of the first two waves of the Spanish flu pandemic in Geneva, Switzerland in 1918, we estimate the reproduction number from the early phase of the pandemic waves. For the spring and fall pandemic waves, we estimate reproduction numbers of 1:57 (95% CI: 1:45, 1:70) and 3:10 (2:81, 3:39), respectively, from the initial epidemic phase comprising the first 10 epidemic days of the corresponding wave. Estimates of the variance of our point estimates of R were computed via a parametric bootstrap. We compare these estimates with others obtained using different observation windows to provide insight into how early into an epidemic the reproduction number can be estimated.
DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2007.4.457
PubMed: 17658935
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:17658935Le document en format XML
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Ammon</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hengartner, Nicolas W" sort="Hengartner, Nicolas W" uniqKey="Hengartner N" first="Nicolas W" last="Hengartner">Nicolas W. Hengartner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hyman, James M" sort="Hyman, James M" uniqKey="Hyman J" first="James M" last="Hyman">James M. 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Using a compartmental model and hospital notification data of the first two waves of the Spanish flu pandemic in Geneva, Switzerland in 1918, we estimate the reproduction number from the early phase of the pandemic waves. For the spring and fall pandemic waves, we estimate reproduction numbers of 1:57 (95% CI: 1:45, 1:70) and 3:10 (2:81, 3:39), respectively, from the initial epidemic phase comprising the first 10 epidemic days of the corresponding wave. Estimates of the variance of our point estimates of R were computed via a parametric bootstrap. We compare these estimates with others obtained using different observation windows to provide insight into how early into an epidemic the reproduction number can be estimated.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">17658935</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2007</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>11</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2019</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>10</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">1547-1063</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>4</Volume><Issue>3</Issue><PubDate><Year>2007</Year><Month>Jul</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Math Biosci Eng</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>457-70</MedlinePgn></Pagination><Abstract><AbstractText>At the outset of an influenza pandemic, early estimates of the number of secondary cases generated by a primary influenza case (reproduction number, R) and its associated uncertainty can help determine the intensity of interventions necessary for control. Using a compartmental model and hospital notification data of the first two waves of the Spanish flu pandemic in Geneva, Switzerland in 1918, we estimate the reproduction number from the early phase of the pandemic waves. For the spring and fall pandemic waves, we estimate reproduction numbers of 1:57 (95% CI: 1:45, 1:70) and 3:10 (2:81, 3:39), respectively, from the initial epidemic phase comprising the first 10 epidemic days of the corresponding wave. Estimates of the variance of our point estimates of R were computed via a parametric bootstrap. 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