Antiviral treatment for pandemic influenza: assessing potential repercussions using a seasonally forced SIR model.
Identifieur interne : 000F21 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000F20; suivant : 000F22Antiviral treatment for pandemic influenza: assessing potential repercussions using a seasonally forced SIR model.
Auteurs : S. Towers ; K. Vogt Geisse ; Y. Zheng ; Z. FengSource :
- Journal of theoretical biology [ 1095-8541 ] ; 2011.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- chemical , adverse effects : Antiviral Agents.
- chemical , therapeutic use : Antiviral Agents.
- drug therapy : Influenza, Human.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- prevention & control : Pandemics.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Disease Susceptibility, Humans, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Models, Biological, Seasons.
Abstract
When resources are limited, measures to control an incipient influenza pandemic must be carefully considered. Because several months are needed to mass-produce vaccines once a new pandemic strain has been identified, antiviral drugs are often considered the first line of defense in a pandemic situation. Here we use an SIR disease model with periodic transmission rate to assess the efficacy of control strategies via antiviral drug treatment during an outbreak of pandemic influenza. We show that in some situations, and independent of drug-resistance effects, antiviral treatment can have a detrimental impact on the final size of the pandemic. Antiviral treatment also has the potential to increase the size of the major peak of the pandemic, and cause it to occur earlier than it would have if treatment were not used. Our studies suggest that when a disease exhibits periodic patterns in transmission, decisions of public health policy will be particularly important as to how control measures such as drug treatment should be implemented, and to what end (i.e.; towards immediate control of a current epidemic peak, or towards potential delay and/or reduction of an anticipated autumn peak).
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.08.011
PubMed: 21867715
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Feng</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2011">2011</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:21867715</idno><idno type="pmid">21867715</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.08.011</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000F21</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000F21</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Antiviral treatment for pandemic influenza: assessing potential repercussions using a seasonally forced SIR model.</title><author><name sortKey="Towers, S" sort="Towers, S" uniqKey="Towers S" first="S" last="Towers">S. Towers</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA. stowers@purdue.edu</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vogt Geisse, K" sort="Vogt Geisse, K" uniqKey="Vogt Geisse K" first="K" last="Vogt Geisse">K. 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Feng</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of theoretical biology</title><idno type="eISSN">1095-8541</idno><imprint><date when="2011" type="published">2011</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Antiviral Agents (adverse effects)</term><term>Antiviral Agents (therapeutic use)</term><term>Disease Susceptibility</term><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term><term>Influenza, Human (drug therapy)</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (transmission)</term><term>Models, Biological</term><term>Pandemics (prevention & control)</term><term>Seasons</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="chemical" qualifier="adverse effects" xml:lang="en"><term>Antiviral Agents</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="chemical" qualifier="therapeutic use" xml:lang="en"><term>Antiviral Agents</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="drug therapy" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Pandemics</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Susceptibility</term><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term><term>Models, Biological</term><term>Seasons</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">When resources are limited, measures to control an incipient influenza pandemic must be carefully considered. Because several months are needed to mass-produce vaccines once a new pandemic strain has been identified, antiviral drugs are often considered the first line of defense in a pandemic situation. Here we use an SIR disease model with periodic transmission rate to assess the efficacy of control strategies via antiviral drug treatment during an outbreak of pandemic influenza. We show that in some situations, and independent of drug-resistance effects, antiviral treatment can have a detrimental impact on the final size of the pandemic. Antiviral treatment also has the potential to increase the size of the major peak of the pandemic, and cause it to occur earlier than it would have if treatment were not used. Our studies suggest that when a disease exhibits periodic patterns in transmission, decisions of public health policy will be particularly important as to how control measures such as drug treatment should be implemented, and to what end (i.e.; towards immediate control of a current epidemic peak, or towards potential delay and/or reduction of an anticipated autumn peak).</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">21867715</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2012</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>23</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2011</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>11</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1095-8541</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>289</Volume><PubDate><Year>2011</Year><Month>Nov</Month><Day>21</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Journal of theoretical biology</Title><ISOAbbreviation>J. Theor. Biol.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Antiviral treatment for pandemic influenza: assessing potential repercussions using a seasonally forced SIR model.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>259-68</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.08.011</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>When resources are limited, measures to control an incipient influenza pandemic must be carefully considered. Because several months are needed to mass-produce vaccines once a new pandemic strain has been identified, antiviral drugs are often considered the first line of defense in a pandemic situation. Here we use an SIR disease model with periodic transmission rate to assess the efficacy of control strategies via antiviral drug treatment during an outbreak of pandemic influenza. We show that in some situations, and independent of drug-resistance effects, antiviral treatment can have a detrimental impact on the final size of the pandemic. Antiviral treatment also has the potential to increase the size of the major peak of the pandemic, and cause it to occur earlier than it would have if treatment were not used. Our studies suggest that when a disease exhibits periodic patterns in transmission, decisions of public health policy will be particularly important as to how control measures such as drug treatment should be implemented, and to what end (i.e.; towards immediate control of a current epidemic peak, or towards potential delay and/or reduction of an anticipated autumn peak).</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Towers</LastName><ForeName>S</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA. stowers@purdue.edu</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Vogt Geisse</LastName><ForeName>K</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zheng</LastName><ForeName>Y</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Feng</LastName><ForeName>Z</ForeName><Initials>Z</Initials></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013486">Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2011</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>18</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>J Theor Biol</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>0376342</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0022-5193</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><ChemicalList><Chemical><RegistryNumber>0</RegistryNumber><NameOfSubstance UI="D000998">Antiviral Agents</NameOfSubstance></Chemical></ChemicalList><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000998" MajorTopicYN="N">Antiviral Agents</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000009" MajorTopicYN="N">adverse effects</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000627" MajorTopicYN="Y">therapeutic use</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D004198" MajorTopicYN="N">Disease Susceptibility</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D053118" MajorTopicYN="Y">Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000188" MajorTopicYN="Y">drug therapy</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="N">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008954" MajorTopicYN="Y">Models, Biological</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemics</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="Y">prevention & control</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012621" MajorTopicYN="N">Seasons</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2011</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>11</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2011</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>03</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2011</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>11</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2011</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>27</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2011</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>27</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2012</Year><Month>1</Month><Day>24</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">21867715</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S0022-5193(11)00406-1</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.08.011</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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