Modeling the impact of air, sea, and land travel restrictions supplemented by other interventions on the emergence of a new influenza pandemic virus.
Identifieur interne : 000B62 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000B61; suivant : 000B63Modeling the impact of air, sea, and land travel restrictions supplemented by other interventions on the emergence of a new influenza pandemic virus.
Auteurs : Ka Chun Chong ; Benny Chung Ying ZeeSource :
- BMC infectious diseases [ 1471-2334 ] ; 2012.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- pathogenicity : Orthomyxoviridae.
- statistics & numerical data : Pandemics, Transportation, Travel.
- Humans, Models, Theoretical.
Abstract
During the early stages of a new influenza pandemic, travel restriction is an immediate and non-pharmaceutical means of retarding incidence growth. It extends the time frame of effective mitigation, especially when the characteristics of the emerging virus are unknown. In the present study, we used the 2009 influenza A pandemic as a case study to evaluate the impact of regulating air, sea, and land transport. Other government strategies, namely, antivirals and hospitalizations, were also evaluated.
DOI: 10.1186/1471-2334-12-309
PubMed: 23157818
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:23157818Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Modeling the impact of air, sea, and land travel restrictions supplemented by other interventions on the emergence of a new influenza pandemic virus.</title>
<author><name sortKey="Chong, Ka Chun" sort="Chong, Ka Chun" uniqKey="Chong K" first="Ka Chun" last="Chong">Ka Chun Chong</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Division of Biostatistics, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China. marc@cct.cuhk.edu.hk</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ying Zee, Benny Chung" sort="Ying Zee, Benny Chung" uniqKey="Ying Zee B" first="Benny Chung" last="Ying Zee">Benny Chung Ying Zee</name>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno>
<date when="2012">2012</date>
<idno type="RBID">pubmed:23157818</idno>
<idno type="pmid">23157818</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1186/1471-2334-12-309</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000B62</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000B62</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Modeling the impact of air, sea, and land travel restrictions supplemented by other interventions on the emergence of a new influenza pandemic virus.</title>
<author><name sortKey="Chong, Ka Chun" sort="Chong, Ka Chun" uniqKey="Chong K" first="Ka Chun" last="Chong">Ka Chun Chong</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Division of Biostatistics, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China. marc@cct.cuhk.edu.hk</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ying Zee, Benny Chung" sort="Ying Zee, Benny Chung" uniqKey="Ying Zee B" first="Benny Chung" last="Ying Zee">Benny Chung Ying Zee</name>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">BMC infectious diseases</title>
<idno type="eISSN">1471-2334</idno>
<imprint><date when="2012" type="published">2012</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Humans</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Models, Theoretical</term>
<term>Orthomyxoviridae (pathogenicity)</term>
<term>Pandemics (statistics & numerical data)</term>
<term>Transportation (statistics & numerical data)</term>
<term>Travel (statistics & numerical data)</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="pathogenicity" xml:lang="en"><term>Orthomyxoviridae</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Pandemics</term>
<term>Transportation</term>
<term>Travel</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Humans</term>
<term>Models, Theoretical</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">During the early stages of a new influenza pandemic, travel restriction is an immediate and non-pharmaceutical means of retarding incidence growth. It extends the time frame of effective mitigation, especially when the characteristics of the emerging virus are unknown. In the present study, we used the 2009 influenza A pandemic as a case study to evaluate the impact of regulating air, sea, and land transport. Other government strategies, namely, antivirals and hospitalizations, were also evaluated.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">23157818</PMID>
<DateCompleted><Year>2013</Year>
<Month>06</Month>
<Day>21</Day>
</DateCompleted>
<DateRevised><Year>2018</Year>
<Month>11</Month>
<Day>13</Day>
</DateRevised>
<Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1471-2334</ISSN>
<JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>12</Volume>
<PubDate><Year>2012</Year>
<Month>Nov</Month>
<Day>19</Day>
</PubDate>
</JournalIssue>
<Title>BMC infectious diseases</Title>
<ISOAbbreviation>BMC Infect. Dis.</ISOAbbreviation>
</Journal>
<ArticleTitle>Modeling the impact of air, sea, and land travel restrictions supplemented by other interventions on the emergence of a new influenza pandemic virus.</ArticleTitle>
<Pagination><MedlinePgn>309</MedlinePgn>
</Pagination>
<ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1186/1471-2334-12-309</ELocationID>
<Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">During the early stages of a new influenza pandemic, travel restriction is an immediate and non-pharmaceutical means of retarding incidence growth. It extends the time frame of effective mitigation, especially when the characteristics of the emerging virus are unknown. In the present study, we used the 2009 influenza A pandemic as a case study to evaluate the impact of regulating air, sea, and land transport. Other government strategies, namely, antivirals and hospitalizations, were also evaluated.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">Hong Kong arrivals from 44 countries via air, sea, and land transports were imported into a discrete stochastic Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Recovered (SEIR) host-flow model. The model allowed a number of latent and infectious cases to pass the border, which constitutes a source of local disease transmission. We also modeled antiviral and hospitalization prevention strategies to compare the effectiveness of these control measures. Baseline reproduction rate was estimated from routine surveillance data.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">Regarding air travel, the main route connected to the influenza source area should be targeted for travel restrictions; imposing a 99% air travel restriction delayed the epidemic peak by up to two weeks. Once the pandemic was established in China, the strong land connection between Hong Kong and China rendered Hong Kong vulnerable. Antivirals and hospitalization were found to be more effective on attack rate reductions than travel restrictions. Combined strategies (with 99% restriction on all transport modes) deferred the peak for long enough to establish a vaccination program.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="CONCLUSION" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">The findings will assist policy-makers with decisions on handling similar future pandemics. We also suggest regulating the extent of restriction and the transport mode, once restriction has been deemed necessary for pandemic control. Although travel restrictions have yet to gain social acceptance, they allow time for mitigation response when a new and highly intrusive virus emerges.</AbstractText>
</Abstract>
<AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chong</LastName>
<ForeName>Ka Chun</ForeName>
<Initials>KC</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Division of Biostatistics, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China. marc@cct.cuhk.edu.hk</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ying Zee</LastName>
<ForeName>Benny Chung</ForeName>
<Initials>BC</Initials>
</Author>
</AuthorList>
<Language>eng</Language>
<PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType>
</PublicationTypeList>
<ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2012</Year>
<Month>11</Month>
<Day>19</Day>
</ArticleDate>
</Article>
<MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country>
<MedlineTA>BMC Infect Dis</MedlineTA>
<NlmUniqueID>100968551</NlmUniqueID>
<ISSNLinking>1471-2334</ISSNLinking>
</MedlineJournalInfo>
<CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset>
<MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008962" MajorTopicYN="N">Models, Theoretical</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D009975" MajorTopicYN="N">Orthomyxoviridae</DescriptorName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000472" MajorTopicYN="Y">pathogenicity</QualifierName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemics</DescriptorName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000706" MajorTopicYN="Y">statistics & numerical data</QualifierName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014186" MajorTopicYN="N">Transportation</DescriptorName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000706" MajorTopicYN="N">statistics & numerical data</QualifierName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014195" MajorTopicYN="N">Travel</DescriptorName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000706" MajorTopicYN="Y">statistics & numerical data</QualifierName>
</MeshHeading>
</MeshHeadingList>
</MedlineCitation>
<PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2011</Year>
<Month>11</Month>
<Day>09</Day>
</PubMedPubDate>
<PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2012</Year>
<Month>11</Month>
<Day>15</Day>
</PubMedPubDate>
<PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2012</Year>
<Month>11</Month>
<Day>20</Day>
<Hour>6</Hour>
<Minute>0</Minute>
</PubMedPubDate>
<PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2012</Year>
<Month>11</Month>
<Day>20</Day>
<Hour>6</Hour>
<Minute>0</Minute>
</PubMedPubDate>
<PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2013</Year>
<Month>6</Month>
<Day>25</Day>
<Hour>6</Hour>
<Minute>0</Minute>
</PubMedPubDate>
</History>
<PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23157818</ArticleId>
<ArticleId IdType="pii">1471-2334-12-309</ArticleId>
<ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1186/1471-2334-12-309</ArticleId>
<ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC3577649</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
<ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>BMJ. 2005 Nov 26;331(7527):1242-3</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16176938</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Math Popul Stud. 1992;3(3):161-71, 227</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">12317173</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Math Biosci. 2008 Jul-Aug;214(1-2):70-2</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">18387639</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Emerg Infect Dis. 2008 Oct;14(10):1660-2</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">18826841</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Nature. 2006 Jul 27;442(7101):448-52</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16642006</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Emerg Infect Dis. 2005 Sep;11(9):1355-62</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16229762</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Stat Med. 1988 Nov;7(11):1147-55</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">3201040</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Science. 2009 Oct 30;326(5953):729-33</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19745114</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>PLoS One. 2008;3(3):e1790</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">18335060</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>PLoS Med. 2006 Sep;3(10):e401</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16968115</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>PLoS One. 2011;6(3):e17713</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">21412418</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>PLoS One. 2007;2(1):e143</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17206278</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Nat Med. 2006 May;12(5):497-9</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16675989</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Science. 2009 Jun 19;324(5934):1557-61</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19433588</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>J Hyg (Lond). 1931 Jul;31(3):336-51</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">20475096</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>BMC Infect Dis. 2010;10:82</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">20353566</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>PLoS One. 2010;5(2):e9018</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">20161764</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>PLoS One. 2008;3(5):e2185</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">18478118</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Biometrics. 2006 Dec;62(4):1170-7</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17156292</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>BMC Infect Dis. 2009;9:129</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19674455</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>PLoS Med. 2006 Jun;3(6):e212</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16640458</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Eur J Epidemiol. 1994 Aug;10(4):471-4</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">7843359</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Science. 2005 Aug 12;309(5737):1083-7</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16079251</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Nature. 2005 Sep 8;437(7056):209-14</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16079797</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>PLoS Med. 2007 Jun;4(6):e218</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17579511</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>PLoS One. 2007;2(5):e401</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17476323</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Feb;136(2):166-79</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17445311</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>PLoS Med. 2007 Jan;4(1):e13</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17253899</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2004 Oct 19;101(42):15124-9</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">15477600</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Euro Surveill. 2009 May 14;14(19). pii: 19205</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19442402</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Eur J Epidemiol. 2003;18(11):1065-72</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">14620941</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Emerg Infect Dis. 2010 Mar;16(3):538-41</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">20202441</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>PLoS Med. 2006 Sep;3(9):e361</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16881729</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Am J Epidemiol. 1986 Mar;123(3):383-91</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">3946385</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Science. 2009 Sep 25;325(5948):1705-8</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19696313</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Science. 2004 Dec 24;306(5705):2195-6</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">15618505</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 Jan;12(1):81-7</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16494722</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>J Theor Biol. 2004 Jul 7;229(1):119-26</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">15178190</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Hum Biol. 1952 Sep;24(3):201-33</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">12990130</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Lancet Infect Dis. 2012 Sep;12(9):687-95</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">22738893</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Am J Epidemiol. 2004 Apr 1;159(7):623-33</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">15033640</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
</ReferenceList>
</PubmedData>
</pubmed>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/PandemieGrippaleV1/Data/PubMed/Corpus
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000B62 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Corpus/biblio.hfd -nk 000B62 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Sante |area= PandemieGrippaleV1 |flux= PubMed |étape= Corpus |type= RBID |clé= pubmed:23157818 |texte= Modeling the impact of air, sea, and land travel restrictions supplemented by other interventions on the emergence of a new influenza pandemic virus. }}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Corpus/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:23157818" \ | HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Corpus/biblio.hfd \ | NlmPubMed2Wicri -a PandemieGrippaleV1
![]() | This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.34. | ![]() |