Modeling the effect of school closures in a pandemic scenario: exploring two different contact matrices.
Identifieur interne : 000672 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000671; suivant : 000673Modeling the effect of school closures in a pandemic scenario: exploring two different contact matrices.
Auteurs : Isaac Chun-Hai Fung ; Manoj Gambhir ; John W. Glasser ; Hongjiang Gao ; Michael L. Washington ; Amra Uzicanin ; Martin I. MeltzerSource :
- Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America [ 1537-6591 ] ; 2015.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adolescent, Child, Child, Preschool, Disaster Planning (methods), Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control), Female, Humans, Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (prevention & control), Influenza, Human (transmission), Male, Models, Theoretical, Pandemics (prevention & control), Primary Prevention (methods), Public Health (methods), Schools (legislation & jurisprudence), United States (epidemiology).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : United States.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- legislation & jurisprudence : Schools.
- methods : Disaster Planning, Primary Prevention, Public Health.
- prevention & control : Disease Outbreaks, Influenza, Human, Pandemics.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Adolescent, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Male, Models, Theoretical.
Abstract
School closures may delay the epidemic peak of the next influenza pandemic, but whether school closure can delay the peak until pandemic vaccine is ready to be deployed is uncertain.
DOI: 10.1093/cid/civ086
PubMed: 25878302
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:25878302Le document en format XML
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Glasser</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gao, Hongjiang" sort="Gao, Hongjiang" uniqKey="Gao H" first="Hongjiang" last="Gao">Hongjiang Gao</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Washington, Michael L" sort="Washington, Michael L" uniqKey="Washington M" first="Michael L" last="Washington">Michael L. Washington</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Atlanta, Georgia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Uzicanin, Amra" sort="Uzicanin, Amra" uniqKey="Uzicanin A" first="Amra" last="Uzicanin">Amra Uzicanin</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Meltzer, Martin I" sort="Meltzer, Martin I" uniqKey="Meltzer M" first="Martin I" last="Meltzer">Martin I. Meltzer</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Atlanta, Georgia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2015">2015</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:25878302</idno><idno type="pmid">25878302</idno><idno type="doi">10.1093/cid/civ086</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000672</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000672</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Modeling the effect of school closures in a pandemic scenario: exploring two different contact matrices.</title><author><name sortKey="Fung, Isaac Chun Hai" sort="Fung, Isaac Chun Hai" uniqKey="Fung I" first="Isaac Chun-Hai" last="Fung">Isaac Chun-Hai Fung</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gambhir, Manoj" sort="Gambhir, Manoj" uniqKey="Gambhir M" first="Manoj" last="Gambhir">Manoj Gambhir</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and IHRC, Inc, Atlanta, Georgia Epidemiological Modelling Unit, Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia;</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Glasser, John W" sort="Glasser, John W" uniqKey="Glasser J" first="John W" last="Glasser">John W. Glasser</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gao, Hongjiang" sort="Gao, Hongjiang" uniqKey="Gao H" first="Hongjiang" last="Gao">Hongjiang Gao</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Washington, Michael L" sort="Washington, Michael L" uniqKey="Washington M" first="Michael L" last="Washington">Michael L. Washington</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Atlanta, Georgia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Uzicanin, Amra" sort="Uzicanin, Amra" uniqKey="Uzicanin A" first="Amra" last="Uzicanin">Amra Uzicanin</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Meltzer, Martin I" sort="Meltzer, Martin I" uniqKey="Meltzer M" first="Martin I" last="Meltzer">Martin I. Meltzer</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Atlanta, Georgia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America</title><idno type="eISSN">1537-6591</idno><imprint><date when="2015" type="published">2015</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Child</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Disaster Planning (methods)</term><term>Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control)</term><term>Female</term><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (prevention & control)</term><term>Influenza, Human (transmission)</term><term>Male</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Pandemics (prevention & control)</term><term>Primary Prevention (methods)</term><term>Public Health (methods)</term><term>Schools (legislation & jurisprudence)</term><term>United States (epidemiology)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>United States</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="legislation & jurisprudence" xml:lang="en"><term>Schools</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="methods" xml:lang="en"><term>Disaster Planning</term><term>Primary Prevention</term><term>Public Health</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Influenza, Human</term><term>Pandemics</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Child</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Female</term><term>Humans</term><term>Male</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">School closures may delay the epidemic peak of the next influenza pandemic, but whether school closure can delay the peak until pandemic vaccine is ready to be deployed is uncertain.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">25878302</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2015</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>16</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2015</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>16</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1537-6591</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>60 Suppl 1</Volume><PubDate><Year>2015</Year><Month>May</Month><Day>01</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Clin. Infect. Dis.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Modeling the effect of school closures in a pandemic scenario: exploring two different contact matrices.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>S58-63</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1093/cid/civ086</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">School closures may delay the epidemic peak of the next influenza pandemic, but whether school closure can delay the peak until pandemic vaccine is ready to be deployed is uncertain.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">To study the effect of school closures on the timing of epidemic peaks, we built a deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered model of influenza transmission. We stratified the U.S. population into 4 age groups (0-4, 5-19, 20-64, and ≥ 65 years), and used contact matrices to model the average number of potentially disease transmitting, nonphysical contacts.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">For every week of school closure at day 5 of introduction and a 30% clinical attack rate scenario, epidemic peak would be delayed by approximately 5 days. For a 15% clinical attack rate scenario, 1 week closure would delay the peak by 9 days. Closing schools for less than 84 days (12 weeks) would not, however, reduce the estimated total number of cases.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Unless vaccine is available early, school closure alone may not be able to delay the peak until vaccine is ready to be deployed. Conversely, if vaccination begins quickly, school closure may be helpful in providing the time to vaccinate school-aged children before the pandemic peaks.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fung</LastName><ForeName>Isaac Chun-Hai</ForeName><Initials>IC</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gambhir</LastName><ForeName>Manoj</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and IHRC, Inc, Atlanta, Georgia Epidemiological Modelling Unit, Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia;</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Glasser</LastName><ForeName>John W</ForeName><Initials>JW</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gao</LastName><ForeName>Hongjiang</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Washington</LastName><ForeName>Michael L</ForeName><Initials>ML</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Atlanta, Georgia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Uzicanin</LastName><ForeName>Amra</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Meltzer</LastName><ForeName>Martin I</ForeName><Initials>MI</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Atlanta, Georgia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>Clin Infect Dis</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>9203213</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1058-4838</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000293" MajorTopicYN="N">Adolescent</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002648" MajorTopicYN="N">Child</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002675" MajorTopicYN="N">Child, Preschool</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D004189" MajorTopicYN="N">Disaster 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Theoretical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemics</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="Y">prevention & control</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011322" MajorTopicYN="N">Primary Prevention</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000379" MajorTopicYN="N">methods</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011634" MajorTopicYN="N">Public Health</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000379" MajorTopicYN="N">methods</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012574" MajorTopicYN="N">Schools</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000331" MajorTopicYN="Y">legislation & jurisprudence</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014481" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">United States</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList 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