Are we prepared for the next influenza pandemic? Lessons from modelling different preparedness policies against four pandemic scenarios.
Identifieur interne : 000140 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000139; suivant : 000141Are we prepared for the next influenza pandemic? Lessons from modelling different preparedness policies against four pandemic scenarios.
Auteurs : Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths ; Luca Grieco ; Edwin Van Leeuwen ; Marc Baguelin ; Richard Pebody ; Martin UtleySource :
- Journal of theoretical biology [ 1095-8541 ] ; 2019.
Abstract
In the event of a novel influenza strain that is markedly different to the current strains circulating in humans, the population have little/no immunity and infection spreads quickly causing a global pandemic. Over the past century, there have been four major influenza pandemics: the 1918 pandemic ("Spanish Flu"), the 1957-58 pandemic (the "Asian Flu"), the 1967-68 pandemic (the "Hong Kong Flu") and the 2009 pandemic (the "Swine flu"). To inform planning against future pandemics, this paper investigates how different is the net-present value of employing pre-purchase and responsive- purchased vaccine programmes in presence and absence of anti-viral drugs to scenarios that resemble these historic influenza pandemics. Using the existing literature and in discussions with policy decision makers in the UK, we first characterised the four past influenza pandemics by their transmissibility and infection-severity. For these combinations of parameters, we then projected the net-present value of employing pre-purchase vaccine (PPV) and responsive-purchase vaccine (RPV) programmes in presence and absence of anti-viral drugs. To differentiate between PPV and RPV policies, we changed the vaccine effectiveness value and the time to when the vaccine is first available. Our results are "heat-map" graphs displaying the benefits of different strategies in pandemic scenarios that resemble historic influenza pandemics. Our results suggest that immunisation with either PPV or RPV in presence of a stockpile of effective antiviral drugs, does not have positive net-present value for all of the pandemic scenarios considered. In contrast, in the absence of effective antivirals, both PPV and RPV policies have positive net-present value across all the pandemic scenarios. Moreover, in all considered circumstances, vaccination was most beneficial if started sufficiently early and covered sufficiently large number of people. When comparing the two vaccine programmes, the RPV policy allowed a longer timeframe and lower coverage to attain the same benefit as the PPV policy. Our findings suggest that responsive-purchase vaccination policy has a bigger window of positive net-present value when employed against each of the historic influenza pandemic strains but needs to be rapidly available to maximise benefit. This is important for future planning as it suggests that future preparedness policies may wish to consider utilising timely (i.e. responsive-purchased) vaccines against emerging influenza pandemics.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.05.003
PubMed: 31059716
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:31059716Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Are we prepared for the next influenza pandemic? Lessons from modelling different preparedness policies against four pandemic scenarios.</title><author><name sortKey="Panovska Griffiths, Jasmina" sort="Panovska Griffiths, Jasmina" uniqKey="Panovska Griffiths J" first="Jasmina" last="Panovska-Griffiths">Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clinical Operational Research Unit, Department of Mathematics, University College London, London, United Kingdom; Department of Applied Health Research, University College London, London, United Kingdom; Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: j.panovska-griffiths@ucl.ac.uk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Grieco, Luca" sort="Grieco, Luca" uniqKey="Grieco L" first="Luca" last="Grieco">Luca Grieco</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clinical Operational Research Unit, Department of Mathematics, University College London, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: l.grieco@ucl.ac.uk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Leeuwen, Edwin" sort="Van Leeuwen, Edwin" uniqKey="Van Leeuwen E" first="Edwin" last="Van Leeuwen">Edwin Van Leeuwen</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Vaccines and Countermeasures Service, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom; National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: edwin.vanleeuwen@phe.gov.uk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Baguelin, Marc" sort="Baguelin, Marc" uniqKey="Baguelin M" first="Marc" last="Baguelin">Marc Baguelin</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Vaccines and Countermeasures Service, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: marc.baguelin@phe.gov.uk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pebody, Richard" sort="Pebody, Richard" uniqKey="Pebody R" first="Richard" last="Pebody">Richard Pebody</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Vaccines and Countermeasures Service, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: richard.pebody@phe.gov.uk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Utley, Martin" sort="Utley, Martin" uniqKey="Utley M" first="Martin" last="Utley">Martin Utley</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clinical Operational Research Unit, Department of Mathematics, University College London, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: m.utley@ucl.ac.uk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2019">2019</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:31059716</idno><idno type="pmid">31059716</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.05.003</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000140</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000140</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Are we prepared for the next influenza pandemic? Lessons from modelling different preparedness policies against four pandemic scenarios.</title><author><name sortKey="Panovska Griffiths, Jasmina" sort="Panovska Griffiths, Jasmina" uniqKey="Panovska Griffiths J" first="Jasmina" last="Panovska-Griffiths">Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clinical Operational Research Unit, Department of Mathematics, University College London, London, United Kingdom; Department of Applied Health Research, University College London, London, United Kingdom; Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: j.panovska-griffiths@ucl.ac.uk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Grieco, Luca" sort="Grieco, Luca" uniqKey="Grieco L" first="Luca" last="Grieco">Luca Grieco</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clinical Operational Research Unit, Department of Mathematics, University College London, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: l.grieco@ucl.ac.uk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Leeuwen, Edwin" sort="Van Leeuwen, Edwin" uniqKey="Van Leeuwen E" first="Edwin" last="Van Leeuwen">Edwin Van Leeuwen</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Vaccines and Countermeasures Service, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom; National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: edwin.vanleeuwen@phe.gov.uk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Baguelin, Marc" sort="Baguelin, Marc" uniqKey="Baguelin M" first="Marc" last="Baguelin">Marc Baguelin</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Vaccines and Countermeasures Service, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: marc.baguelin@phe.gov.uk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pebody, Richard" sort="Pebody, Richard" uniqKey="Pebody R" first="Richard" last="Pebody">Richard Pebody</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Vaccines and Countermeasures Service, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: richard.pebody@phe.gov.uk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Utley, Martin" sort="Utley, Martin" uniqKey="Utley M" first="Martin" last="Utley">Martin Utley</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clinical Operational Research Unit, Department of Mathematics, University College London, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: m.utley@ucl.ac.uk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of theoretical biology</title><idno type="eISSN">1095-8541</idno><imprint><date when="2019" type="published">2019</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">In the event of a novel influenza strain that is markedly different to the current strains circulating in humans, the population have little/no immunity and infection spreads quickly causing a global pandemic. Over the past century, there have been four major influenza pandemics: the 1918 pandemic ("Spanish Flu"), the 1957-58 pandemic (the "Asian Flu"), the 1967-68 pandemic (the "Hong Kong Flu") and the 2009 pandemic (the "Swine flu"). To inform planning against future pandemics, this paper investigates how different is the net-present value of employing pre-purchase and responsive- purchased vaccine programmes in presence and absence of anti-viral drugs to scenarios that resemble these historic influenza pandemics. Using the existing literature and in discussions with policy decision makers in the UK, we first characterised the four past influenza pandemics by their transmissibility and infection-severity. For these combinations of parameters, we then projected the net-present value of employing pre-purchase vaccine (PPV) and responsive-purchase vaccine (RPV) programmes in presence and absence of anti-viral drugs. To differentiate between PPV and RPV policies, we changed the vaccine effectiveness value and the time to when the vaccine is first available. Our results are "heat-map" graphs displaying the benefits of different strategies in pandemic scenarios that resemble historic influenza pandemics. Our results suggest that immunisation with either PPV or RPV in presence of a stockpile of effective antiviral drugs, does not have positive net-present value for all of the pandemic scenarios considered. In contrast, in the absence of effective antivirals, both PPV and RPV policies have positive net-present value across all the pandemic scenarios. Moreover, in all considered circumstances, vaccination was most beneficial if started sufficiently early and covered sufficiently large number of people. When comparing the two vaccine programmes, the RPV policy allowed a longer timeframe and lower coverage to attain the same benefit as the PPV policy. Our findings suggest that responsive-purchase vaccination policy has a bigger window of positive net-present value when employed against each of the historic influenza pandemic strains but needs to be rapidly available to maximise benefit. This is important for future planning as it suggests that future preparedness policies may wish to consider utilising timely (i.e. responsive-purchased) vaccines against emerging influenza pandemics.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="In-Process" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">31059716</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>28</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1095-8541</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>481</Volume><PubDate><Year>2019</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>21</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Journal of theoretical biology</Title><ISOAbbreviation>J. Theor. Biol.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Are we prepared for the next influenza pandemic? Lessons from modelling different preparedness policies against four pandemic scenarios.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>223-232</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S0022-5193(19)30187-0</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.05.003</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>In the event of a novel influenza strain that is markedly different to the current strains circulating in humans, the population have little/no immunity and infection spreads quickly causing a global pandemic. Over the past century, there have been four major influenza pandemics: the 1918 pandemic ("Spanish Flu"), the 1957-58 pandemic (the "Asian Flu"), the 1967-68 pandemic (the "Hong Kong Flu") and the 2009 pandemic (the "Swine flu"). To inform planning against future pandemics, this paper investigates how different is the net-present value of employing pre-purchase and responsive- purchased vaccine programmes in presence and absence of anti-viral drugs to scenarios that resemble these historic influenza pandemics. Using the existing literature and in discussions with policy decision makers in the UK, we first characterised the four past influenza pandemics by their transmissibility and infection-severity. For these combinations of parameters, we then projected the net-present value of employing pre-purchase vaccine (PPV) and responsive-purchase vaccine (RPV) programmes in presence and absence of anti-viral drugs. To differentiate between PPV and RPV policies, we changed the vaccine effectiveness value and the time to when the vaccine is first available. Our results are "heat-map" graphs displaying the benefits of different strategies in pandemic scenarios that resemble historic influenza pandemics. Our results suggest that immunisation with either PPV or RPV in presence of a stockpile of effective antiviral drugs, does not have positive net-present value for all of the pandemic scenarios considered. In contrast, in the absence of effective antivirals, both PPV and RPV policies have positive net-present value across all the pandemic scenarios. Moreover, in all considered circumstances, vaccination was most beneficial if started sufficiently early and covered sufficiently large number of people. When comparing the two vaccine programmes, the RPV policy allowed a longer timeframe and lower coverage to attain the same benefit as the PPV policy. Our findings suggest that responsive-purchase vaccination policy has a bigger window of positive net-present value when employed against each of the historic influenza pandemic strains but needs to be rapidly available to maximise benefit. This is important for future planning as it suggests that future preparedness policies may wish to consider utilising timely (i.e. responsive-purchased) vaccines against emerging influenza pandemics.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Ltd.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Panovska-Griffiths</LastName><ForeName>Jasmina</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Clinical Operational Research Unit, Department of Mathematics, University College London, London, United Kingdom; Department of Applied Health Research, University College London, London, United Kingdom; Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: j.panovska-griffiths@ucl.ac.uk.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Grieco</LastName><ForeName>Luca</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Clinical Operational Research Unit, Department of Mathematics, University College London, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: l.grieco@ucl.ac.uk.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>van Leeuwen</LastName><ForeName>Edwin</ForeName><Initials>E</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Vaccines and Countermeasures Service, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom; National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: edwin.vanleeuwen@phe.gov.uk.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Baguelin</LastName><ForeName>Marc</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Vaccines and Countermeasures Service, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: marc.baguelin@phe.gov.uk.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Pebody</LastName><ForeName>Richard</ForeName><Initials>R</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Vaccines and Countermeasures Service, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: richard.pebody@phe.gov.uk.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Utley</LastName><ForeName>Martin</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Clinical Operational Research Unit, Department of Mathematics, University College London, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: m.utley@ucl.ac.uk.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2019</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>04</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>J Theor Biol</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>0376342</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0022-5193</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Epidemiological modelling</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Net-present value of pandemic immunisation</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Pandemic influenza</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Pre-purchase pandemic vaccine</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Responsive-purchase pandemic vaccine</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2019</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>22</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2019</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>30</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2019</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>03</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2019</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>7</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2019</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>7</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2019</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>7</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">31059716</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S0022-5193(19)30187-0</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.05.003</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/PandemieGrippaleV1/Data/PubMed/Corpus
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000140 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Corpus/biblio.hfd -nk 000140 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= PandemieGrippaleV1
|flux= PubMed
|étape= Corpus
|type= RBID
|clé= pubmed:31059716
|texte= Are we prepared for the next influenza pandemic? Lessons from modelling different preparedness policies against four pandemic scenarios.
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Corpus/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:31059716" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Corpus/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a PandemieGrippaleV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.34. |  |