Seasonal Influenza Epidemics and El Niños.
Identifieur interne : 000576 ( PubMed/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000575; suivant : 000577Seasonal Influenza Epidemics and El Niños.
Auteurs : Olusegun Steven Ayodele Oluwole [Nigeria]Source :
- Frontiers in public health [ 2296-2565 ] ; 2015.
Abstract
Seasonal influenza epidemics occur annually during the winter in the northern and southern hemispheres, but timing of peaks and severity vary seasonally. Low humidity, which enhances survival and transmission of influenza virus, is the major risk factor. Both El Niño and La Niña phases of El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), which determine inter-annual variation of precipitation, are putative risk factors. This study was done to determine if seasonality, timing of peak, and severity of influenza epidemics are coupled to phases of ENSO. Monthly time series of positive specimens for influenza viruses and of multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index from January 2000 to August 2015 were analyzed. Seasonality, wavelet spectra, and cross-wavelet spectra analyses were performed. Of 31 countries in the dataset, 21 were in the northern hemisphere and 10 in the southern hemisphere. The highest number of influenza cases occurred in January in the northern hemisphere, but in July in the southern hemisphere, p < 0.0001. Seasonal influenza epidemic was coupled to El Niño, while low occurrence was coupled to La Niña. The moderate La Niña of 2010-2011 was followed by weak seasonal influenza epidemic. The influenza pandemic of 2009-2010 followed the moderate El Niño of 2009-2010, which had three peaks. Spectrograms showed time-varying periodicities of 6-48 months for ENSO, 6-24 months for influenza in the northern hemisphere, and 6-12 months for influenza in the southern hemisphere. Cross spectrograms showed time-varying periodicities at 6-36 months for ENSO and influenza in both hemispheres, p < 0.0001. Phase plots showed that influenza time series lagged ENSO in both hemispheres. Severity of seasonal influenza increases during El Niño, but decreases during La Niña. Coupling of seasonality, timing, and severity of influenza epidemics to the strength and waveform of ENSO indicate that forecast models of El Niño should be integrated into surveillance programs for influenza epidemics.
DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2015.00250
PubMed: 26618150
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:26618150Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Seasonal Influenza Epidemics and El Niños.</title><author><name sortKey="Oluwole, Olusegun Steven Ayodele" sort="Oluwole, Olusegun Steven Ayodele" uniqKey="Oluwole O" first="Olusegun Steven Ayodele" last="Oluwole">Olusegun Steven Ayodele Oluwole</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Neurology Unit, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan , Ibadan , Nigeria.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Nigeria</country><wicri:regionArea>Neurology Unit, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan , Ibadan </wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ibadan </wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2015">2015</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:26618150</idno><idno type="pmid">26618150</idno><idno type="doi">10.3389/fpubh.2015.00250</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000577</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000577</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000577</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000577</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000576</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000576</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Seasonal Influenza Epidemics and El Niños.</title><author><name sortKey="Oluwole, Olusegun Steven Ayodele" sort="Oluwole, Olusegun Steven Ayodele" uniqKey="Oluwole O" first="Olusegun Steven Ayodele" last="Oluwole">Olusegun Steven Ayodele Oluwole</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Neurology Unit, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan , Ibadan , Nigeria.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Nigeria</country><wicri:regionArea>Neurology Unit, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan , Ibadan </wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ibadan </wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Frontiers in public health</title><idno type="ISSN">2296-2565</idno><imprint><date when="2015" type="published">2015</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Seasonal influenza epidemics occur annually during the winter in the northern and southern hemispheres, but timing of peaks and severity vary seasonally. Low humidity, which enhances survival and transmission of influenza virus, is the major risk factor. Both El Niño and La Niña phases of El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), which determine inter-annual variation of precipitation, are putative risk factors. This study was done to determine if seasonality, timing of peak, and severity of influenza epidemics are coupled to phases of ENSO. Monthly time series of positive specimens for influenza viruses and of multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index from January 2000 to August 2015 were analyzed. Seasonality, wavelet spectra, and cross-wavelet spectra analyses were performed. Of 31 countries in the dataset, 21 were in the northern hemisphere and 10 in the southern hemisphere. The highest number of influenza cases occurred in January in the northern hemisphere, but in July in the southern hemisphere, p < 0.0001. Seasonal influenza epidemic was coupled to El Niño, while low occurrence was coupled to La Niña. The moderate La Niña of 2010-2011 was followed by weak seasonal influenza epidemic. The influenza pandemic of 2009-2010 followed the moderate El Niño of 2009-2010, which had three peaks. Spectrograms showed time-varying periodicities of 6-48 months for ENSO, 6-24 months for influenza in the northern hemisphere, and 6-12 months for influenza in the southern hemisphere. Cross spectrograms showed time-varying periodicities at 6-36 months for ENSO and influenza in both hemispheres, p < 0.0001. Phase plots showed that influenza time series lagged ENSO in both hemispheres. Severity of seasonal influenza increases during El Niño, but decreases during La Niña. Coupling of seasonality, timing, and severity of influenza epidemics to the strength and waveform of ENSO indicate that forecast models of El Niño should be integrated into surveillance programs for influenza epidemics. </div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">26618150</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2015</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>30</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2018</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>13</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic-eCollection"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">2296-2565</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>3</Volume><PubDate><Year>2015</Year></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Frontiers in public health</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Front Public Health</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Seasonal Influenza Epidemics and El Niños.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>250</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.3389/fpubh.2015.00250</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Seasonal influenza epidemics occur annually during the winter in the northern and southern hemispheres, but timing of peaks and severity vary seasonally. Low humidity, which enhances survival and transmission of influenza virus, is the major risk factor. Both El Niño and La Niña phases of El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), which determine inter-annual variation of precipitation, are putative risk factors. This study was done to determine if seasonality, timing of peak, and severity of influenza epidemics are coupled to phases of ENSO. Monthly time series of positive specimens for influenza viruses and of multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index from January 2000 to August 2015 were analyzed. Seasonality, wavelet spectra, and cross-wavelet spectra analyses were performed. Of 31 countries in the dataset, 21 were in the northern hemisphere and 10 in the southern hemisphere. The highest number of influenza cases occurred in January in the northern hemisphere, but in July in the southern hemisphere, p < 0.0001. Seasonal influenza epidemic was coupled to El Niño, while low occurrence was coupled to La Niña. The moderate La Niña of 2010-2011 was followed by weak seasonal influenza epidemic. The influenza pandemic of 2009-2010 followed the moderate El Niño of 2009-2010, which had three peaks. Spectrograms showed time-varying periodicities of 6-48 months for ENSO, 6-24 months for influenza in the northern hemisphere, and 6-12 months for influenza in the southern hemisphere. Cross spectrograms showed time-varying periodicities at 6-36 months for ENSO and influenza in both hemispheres, p < 0.0001. Phase plots showed that influenza time series lagged ENSO in both hemispheres. Severity of seasonal influenza increases during El Niño, but decreases during La Niña. Coupling of seasonality, timing, and severity of influenza epidemics to the strength and waveform of ENSO indicate that forecast models of El Niño should be integrated into surveillance programs for influenza epidemics. </AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Oluwole</LastName><ForeName>Olusegun Steven Ayodele</ForeName><Initials>OS</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Neurology Unit, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan , Ibadan , Nigeria.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2015</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>10</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Switzerland</Country><MedlineTA>Front Public Health</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101616579</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2296-2565</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">El Niño</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">La Niña</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">climate</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">epidemic</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">flu</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">influenza</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">pandemic</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">seasonal</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2015</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>28</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2015</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>26</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2015</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>1</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2015</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>1</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2015</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>1</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">26618150</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.3389/fpubh.2015.00250</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC4639839</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>PLoS Biol. 2010 Feb 23;8(2):e1000316</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">20186267</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Arch Neurol. 2011 Apr;68(4):455-62</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">21149805</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>J R Soc Interface. 2013 Nov 27;11(91):20130585</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24284892</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Am J Public Health. 2008 May;98(5):939-45</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">18381993</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2015 Jun 5;64(21):583-90</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">26042650</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Int J Health Geogr. 2006 Dec 28;5:60</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17194307</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Nature. 2008 Apr 10;452(7188):750-4</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">18401408</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Science. 1999 Feb 12;283(5404):950-4</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">9974381</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>PLoS Med. 2005 Apr;2(4):e106</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">15839751</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Bull World Health Organ. 2000;78(9):1127-35</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">11019461</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2014 May;8(3):339-46</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24895698</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2013 Feb 26;110 Suppl 1:3689-91</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">22308322</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>BMC Infect Dis. 2007 Mar 19;7:20</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17371602</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2008 Jul;2(4):127-30</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19453463</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Science. 2000 Sep 8;289(5485):1766-9</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">10976073</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 Mar 3;106(9):3243-8</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19204283</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Anaesthesia. 2011 Aug;66(8):738-42</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">21539531</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Emerg Infect Dis. 2001 May-Jun;7(3):369-74</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">11384511</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>J Neurol Sci. 2012 Jan 15;312(1-2):173-6</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">22000408</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>N Engl J Med. 2013 Feb 14;368(7):589-92</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23343038</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Acta Trop. 2014 Feb;130:58-66</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24463259</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>J R Soc Interface. 2007 Aug 22;4(15):625-36</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17301013</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Ann Neurol. 2015 Mar;77(3):371-80</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">25523348</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>BMJ Case Rep. 2014 Oct 23;2014:null</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">25342191</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Front Public Health. 2015 Jul 30;3:187</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">26284234</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Epidemiol Infect. 2013 Sep;141(9):1867-75</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23158456</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet. 2006 Mar 11;367(9513):859-69</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16530580</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>PLoS Pathog. 2007 Oct 19;3(10):1470-6</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17953482</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Epidemiol Infect. 2006 Dec;134(6):1129-40</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16959053</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Front Psychol. 2015 Jan 09;5:1566</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">25620949</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Nigeria</li></country></list><tree><country name="Nigeria"><noRegion><name sortKey="Oluwole, Olusegun Steven Ayodele" sort="Oluwole, Olusegun Steven Ayodele" uniqKey="Oluwole O" first="Olusegun Steven Ayodele" last="Oluwole">Olusegun Steven Ayodele Oluwole</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/PandemieGrippaleV1/Data/PubMed/Checkpoint
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000576 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Checkpoint/biblio.hfd -nk 000576 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= PandemieGrippaleV1
|flux= PubMed
|étape= Checkpoint
|type= RBID
|clé= pubmed:26618150
|texte= Seasonal Influenza Epidemics and El Niños.
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Checkpoint/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:26618150" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Checkpoint/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a PandemieGrippaleV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.34. |  |