Mortality Burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in France: Comparison to Seasonal Influenza and the A/H3N2 Pandemic
Identifieur interne : 000D53 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000D52; suivant : 000D54Mortality Burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in France: Comparison to Seasonal Influenza and the A/H3N2 Pandemic
Auteurs : Magali Lemaitre [États-Unis, France] ; Fabrice Carrat [France] ; Grégoire Rey [France] ; Mark Miller [États-Unis] ; Lone Simonsen [États-Unis] ; Cécile Viboud [États-Unis]Source :
- PLoS ONE [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2012.
Abstract
The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons.
We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic.
The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 0.2–1.9) excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43–45) for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3–3.7) for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5–24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years.
The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable age-specific estimates.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0045051
PubMed: 23028756
PubMed Central: 3447811
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Pandemic</title><author><name sortKey="Lemaitre, Magali" sort="Lemaitre, Magali" uniqKey="Lemaitre M" first="Magali" last="Lemaitre">Magali Lemaitre</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Inserm, UMR-S 707, Paris, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Inserm, UMR-S 707, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Carrat, Fabrice" sort="Carrat, Fabrice" uniqKey="Carrat F" first="Fabrice" last="Carrat">Fabrice Carrat</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Inserm, UMR-S 707, Paris, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Inserm, UMR-S 707, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><addr-line>UPMC – Paris 6, UMR-S 707, Paris, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>UPMC – Paris 6, UMR-S 707, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4"><addr-line>Public Health Unit, Saint-Antoine hospital, AP-HP, Paris, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Public Health Unit, Saint-Antoine hospital, AP-HP, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rey, Gregoire" sort="Rey, Gregoire" uniqKey="Rey G" first="Grégoire" last="Rey">Grégoire Rey</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5"><addr-line>Inserm, CépiDC, Le Vésinet, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Inserm, CépiDC, Le Vésinet</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Miller, Mark" sort="Miller, Mark" uniqKey="Miller M" first="Mark" last="Miller">Mark Miller</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Simonsen, Lone" sort="Simonsen, Lone" uniqKey="Simonsen L" first="Lone" last="Simonsen">Lone Simonsen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff6"><addr-line>Department of Global Health, School of Public Health and Health Services, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Global Health, School of Public Health and Health Services, George Washington University, Washington, D.C.</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Viboud, Cecile" sort="Viboud, Cecile" uniqKey="Viboud C" first="Cécile" last="Viboud">Cécile Viboud</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS ONE</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2012">2012</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 0.2–1.9) excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43–45) for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3–3.7) for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5–24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable age-specific estimates.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Muscatello, Dj" uniqKey="Muscatello D">DJ Muscatello</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cretikos, Ma" uniqKey="Cretikos M">MA Cretikos</name></author><author><name sortKey="Macintyre, Cr" uniqKey="Macintyre C">CR Macintyre</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Charu, V" uniqKey="Charu V">V Charu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G 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Lamballerie X">XN De Lamballerie</name></author><author><name sortKey="Salez, N" uniqKey="Salez N">N Salez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Garrone, P" uniqKey="Garrone P">P Garrone</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Murray, Cj" uniqKey="Murray C">CJ Murray</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lopez, Ad" uniqKey="Lopez A">AD Lopez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chin, B" uniqKey="Chin B">B Chin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Feehan, D" uniqKey="Feehan D">D Feehan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hill, Kh" uniqKey="Hill K">KH Hill</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Rizzo, C" uniqKey="Rizzo C">C Rizzo</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bella, A" uniqKey="Bella A">A Bella</name></author><author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C Viboud</name></author><author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L Simonsen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Miller, Ma" uniqKey="Miller M">MA Miller</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">PLoS One</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">PLoS ONE</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">plos</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">plosone</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>PLoS ONE</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1932-6203</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Public Library of Science</publisher-name><publisher-loc>San Francisco, USA</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">23028756</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">3447811</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">PONE-D-12-13790</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0045051</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v2"><subject>Biology</subject><subj-group><subject>Population Biology</subject><subj-group><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subj-group><subject>Epidemiological Methods</subject><subject>Infectious Disease Epidemiology</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v2"><subject>Medicine</subject><subj-group><subject>Clinical Research Design</subject><subj-group><subject>Epidemiology</subject></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subj-group><subject>Epidemiological Methods</subject><subject>Infectious Disease Epidemiology</subject></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group><subject>Infectious Diseases</subject><subj-group><subject>Viral Diseases</subject><subj-group><subject>Influenza</subject></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group><subject>Infectious Disease Modeling</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Mortality Burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in France: Comparison to Seasonal Influenza and the A/H3N2 Pandemic</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="running-head">Mortality Burden of the 2009 Pandemic in France</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lemaitre</surname><given-names>Magali</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Carrat</surname><given-names>Fabrice</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>3</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>4</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Rey</surname><given-names>Grégoire</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5"><sup>5</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Miller</surname><given-names>Mark</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Simonsen</surname><given-names>Lone</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6"><sup>6</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Viboud</surname><given-names>Cécile</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><addr-line>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><addr-line>Inserm, UMR-S 707, Paris, France</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff3"><label>3</label><addr-line>UPMC – Paris 6, UMR-S 707, Paris, France</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff4"><label>4</label><addr-line>Public Health Unit, Saint-Antoine hospital, AP-HP, Paris, France</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff5"><label>5</label><addr-line>Inserm, CépiDC, Le Vésinet, France</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff6"><label>6</label><addr-line>Department of Global Health, School of Public Health and Health Services, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., United States of America</addr-line></aff><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="editor"><name><surname>Cowling</surname><given-names>Benjamin J.</given-names></name><role>Editor</role><xref ref-type="aff" rid="edit1"></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="edit1"><addr-line>University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</addr-line></aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1">* E-mail: <email>maglemaitre@gmail.com</email></corresp><fn fn-type="COI-statement"><p><bold>Competing Interests: </bold>M. Lemaitre, L. Simonsen, M. Miller and G. Rey declare they have no potential conflicts of interest. F. Carrat received paid honoraria for a consultancy on influenza epidemiology from Laboratoires Boiron, France. C. Viboud is a PLoS ONE Editorial Board member. This does not alter the authors’ adherence to all the PLoS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.</p></fn><fn fn-type="con"><p>Conceived and designed the experiments: ML FC CV LS. Performed the experiments: ML CV FC. Analyzed the data: ML GR CV. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: GR ML. Wrote the paper: ML FC GR MM LS CV.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2012</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>20</day><month>9</month><year>2012</year></pub-date><volume>7</volume><issue>9</issue><elocation-id>e45051</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>11</day><month>5</month><year>2012</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>15</day><month>8</month><year>2012</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-year>2012</copyright-year><license xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/"><license-p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Public Domain declaration, which stipulates that, once placed in the public domain, this work may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><sec><title>Background</title><p>The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 0.2–1.9) excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43–45) for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3–3.7) for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5–24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable age-specific estimates.</p></sec></abstract><funding-group><funding-statement>This work was supported by a grant from Fondation de la Recherche Médicale (to M. Lemaitre) and by the in-house Influenza Research Program of the Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, which is funded by the International Influenza Unit, Office of Global Affairs, Department of Health and Human Services. L. S. acknowledges support from the RAPIDD program of the Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.</funding-statement></funding-group><counts><page-count count="11"></page-count></counts></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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