Was Mandatory Quarantine Necessary in China for Controlling the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic?
Identifieur interne : 000A99 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000A98; suivant : 000B00Was Mandatory Quarantine Necessary in China for Controlling the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic?
Auteurs : Xinhai Li ; Wenjun Geng ; Huidong Tian ; Dejian Lai [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health [ 1661-7827 ] ; 2013.
Abstract
The Chinese government enforced mandatory quarantine for 60 days (from 10 May to 8 July 2009) as a preventative strategy to control the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Such a prevention strategy was stricter than other non-pharmaceutical interventions that were carried out in many other countries. We evaluated the effectiveness of the mandatory quarantine and provide suggestions for interventions against possible future influenza pandemics. We selected one city, Beijing, as the analysis target. We reviewed the epidemiologic dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the implementation of quarantine measures in Beijing. The infectious population was simulated under two scenarios (quarantined and not quarantined) using a deterministic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. The basic reproduction number
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DOI: 10.3390/ijerph10104690
PubMed: 24084677
PubMed Central: 3823329
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Was Mandatory Quarantine Necessary in China for Controlling the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic?</title><author><name sortKey="Li, Xinhai" sort="Li, Xinhai" uniqKey="Li X" first="Xinhai" last="Li">Xinhai Li</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-ijerph-10-04690">Key Laboratory of the Zoological Systematics and Evolution, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1-5 Beichen West Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China; E-Mail:<email>tienhuitung@gmail.com</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Geng, Wenjun" sort="Geng, Wenjun" uniqKey="Geng W" first="Wenjun" last="Geng">Wenjun Geng</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2-ijerph-10-04690">Chia Tai Tianqing Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd., 9 Huiou Road, Nanjing Economic Development Zone, Nanjing 210038, China; E-Mail:<email>wintergeng@gmail.com</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tian, Huidong" sort="Tian, Huidong" uniqKey="Tian H" first="Huidong" last="Tian">Huidong Tian</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-ijerph-10-04690">Key Laboratory of the Zoological Systematics and Evolution, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1-5 Beichen West Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China; E-Mail:<email>tienhuitung@gmail.com</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lai, Dejian" sort="Lai, Dejian" uniqKey="Lai D" first="Dejian" last="Lai">Dejian Lai</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3-ijerph-10-04690">School of Public Health, University of Texas, 1200 Herman Pressler Street, Suite 1006 Houston, TX 77030, USA; E-Mail:<email>dejian.lai@uth.tmc.edu</email></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af4-ijerph-10-04690">Faculty of Statistics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Statistics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">24084677</idno><idno type="pmc">3823329</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3823329</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:3823329</idno><idno type="doi">10.3390/ijerph10104690</idno><date when="2013">2013</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000A99</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000A99</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000A99</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000A99</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Was Mandatory Quarantine Necessary in China for Controlling the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic?</title><author><name sortKey="Li, Xinhai" sort="Li, Xinhai" uniqKey="Li X" first="Xinhai" last="Li">Xinhai Li</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-ijerph-10-04690">Key Laboratory of the Zoological Systematics and Evolution, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1-5 Beichen West Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China; E-Mail:<email>tienhuitung@gmail.com</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Geng, Wenjun" sort="Geng, Wenjun" uniqKey="Geng W" first="Wenjun" last="Geng">Wenjun Geng</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2-ijerph-10-04690">Chia Tai Tianqing Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd., 9 Huiou Road, Nanjing Economic Development Zone, Nanjing 210038, China; E-Mail:<email>wintergeng@gmail.com</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tian, Huidong" sort="Tian, Huidong" uniqKey="Tian H" first="Huidong" last="Tian">Huidong Tian</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-ijerph-10-04690">Key Laboratory of the Zoological Systematics and Evolution, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1-5 Beichen West Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China; E-Mail:<email>tienhuitung@gmail.com</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lai, Dejian" sort="Lai, Dejian" uniqKey="Lai D" first="Dejian" last="Lai">Dejian Lai</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3-ijerph-10-04690">School of Public Health, University of Texas, 1200 Herman Pressler Street, Suite 1006 Houston, TX 77030, USA; E-Mail:<email>dejian.lai@uth.tmc.edu</email></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af4-ijerph-10-04690">Faculty of Statistics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Statistics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health</title><idno type="ISSN">1661-7827</idno><idno type="eISSN">1660-4601</idno><imprint><date when="2013">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The Chinese government enforced mandatory quarantine for 60 days (from 10 May to 8 July 2009) as a preventative strategy to control the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Such a prevention strategy was stricter than other non-pharmaceutical interventions that were carried out in many other countries. We evaluated the effectiveness of the mandatory quarantine and provide suggestions for interventions against possible future influenza pandemics. We selected one city, Beijing, as the analysis target. We reviewed the epidemiologic dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the implementation of quarantine measures in Beijing. The infectious population was simulated under two scenarios (quarantined and not quarantined) using a deterministic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. The basic reproduction number <italic>R<sub>0</sub></italic> was adjusted to match the epidemic wave in Beijing. We found that mandatory quarantine served to postpone the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Beijing by one and a half months. If mandatory quarantine was not enforced in Beijing, the infectious population could have reached 1,553 by 21 October, <italic>i.e</italic>., 5.6 times higher than the observed number. When the cost of quarantine is taken into account, mandatory quarantine was not an economically effective intervention approach against the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We suggest adopting mitigation methods for an influenza pandemic with low mortality and morbidity.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Glasser, J W" uniqKey="Glasser J">J.W. Glasser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hupert, N" uniqKey="Hupert N">N. Hupert</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mccauley, M M" uniqKey="Mccauley M">M.M. McCauley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hatchett, R" uniqKey="Hatchett R">R. Hatchett</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Layne, S P" uniqKey="Layne S">S.P. 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Int J Environ Res Public Health</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Int J Environ Res Public Health</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ijerph</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1661-7827</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1660-4601</issn><publisher><publisher-name>MDPI</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">24084677</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">3823329</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3390/ijerph10104690</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">ijerph-10-04690</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Was Mandatory Quarantine Necessary in China for Controlling the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic?</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Li</surname><given-names>Xinhai</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-ijerph-10-04690">1</xref><xref rid="c1-ijerph-10-04690" ref-type="corresp">*</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Geng</surname><given-names>Wenjun</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af2-ijerph-10-04690">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Tian</surname><given-names>Huidong</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-ijerph-10-04690">1</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lai</surname><given-names>Dejian</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af3-ijerph-10-04690">3</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af4-ijerph-10-04690">4</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="af1-ijerph-10-04690"><label>1</label>Key Laboratory of the Zoological Systematics and Evolution, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1-5 Beichen West Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China; E-Mail:<email>tienhuitung@gmail.com</email></aff><aff id="af2-ijerph-10-04690"><label>2</label>Chia Tai Tianqing Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd., 9 Huiou Road, Nanjing Economic Development Zone, Nanjing 210038, China; E-Mail:<email>wintergeng@gmail.com</email></aff><aff id="af3-ijerph-10-04690"><label>3</label>School of Public Health, University of Texas, 1200 Herman Pressler Street, Suite 1006 Houston, TX 77030, USA; E-Mail:<email>dejian.lai@uth.tmc.edu</email></aff><aff id="af4-ijerph-10-04690"><label>4</label>Faculty of Statistics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China</aff><author-notes><corresp id="c1-ijerph-10-04690"><label>*</label>Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: <email>lixh@ioz.ac.cn</email>; Tel.: +86-10-6480-7898; Fax: +86-10-6480-7099.</corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>30</day><month>9</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>10</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><volume>10</volume><issue>10</issue><fpage>4690</fpage><lpage>4700</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>10</day><month>8</month><year>2013</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>17</day><month>9</month><year>2013</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>20</day><month>9</month><year>2013</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2013 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2013</copyright-year><license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/"><license-p><pmc-comment>CREATIVE COMMONS</pmc-comment>This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link>).</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>The Chinese government enforced mandatory quarantine for 60 days (from 10 May to 8 July 2009) as a preventative strategy to control the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Such a prevention strategy was stricter than other non-pharmaceutical interventions that were carried out in many other countries. We evaluated the effectiveness of the mandatory quarantine and provide suggestions for interventions against possible future influenza pandemics. We selected one city, Beijing, as the analysis target. We reviewed the epidemiologic dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the implementation of quarantine measures in Beijing. The infectious population was simulated under two scenarios (quarantined and not quarantined) using a deterministic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. The basic reproduction number <italic>R<sub>0</sub></italic> was adjusted to match the epidemic wave in Beijing. We found that mandatory quarantine served to postpone the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Beijing by one and a half months. If mandatory quarantine was not enforced in Beijing, the infectious population could have reached 1,553 by 21 October, <italic>i.e</italic>., 5.6 times higher than the observed number. When the cost of quarantine is taken into account, mandatory quarantine was not an economically effective intervention approach against the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We suggest adopting mitigation methods for an influenza pandemic with low mortality and morbidity.</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>China</kwd><kwd>2009 H1N1 pandemic</kwd><kwd>prevention policy</kwd><kwd>quarantine</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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