A model for the spread and control of pandemic influenza in an isolated geographical region
Identifieur interne : 000729 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000728; suivant : 000730A model for the spread and control of pandemic influenza in an isolated geographical region
Auteurs : M. G Roberts [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; M. Baker [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; L. C Jennings [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; G. Sertsou [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; N. Wilson [Nouvelle-Zélande]Source :
- Journal of the Royal Society Interface [ 1742-5689 ] ; 2006.
Abstract
In the event of an influenza pandemic, the most probable way in which the virus would be introduced to an isolated geographical area is by an infected traveller. We use a mathematical model, structured on the location at which infection occurs and based on published parameters for influenza, to describe an epidemic in a community of one million people. The model is then modified to reflect a variety of control strategies based on social distancing measures, targeted antiviral treatment and antiviral prophylaxis and home quarantine, and the effectiveness of the strategies is compared. The results suggest that the only single strategy that would be successful in preventing an epidemic (with
Url:
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2006.0176
PubMed: 17251145
PubMed Central: 2359860
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G" last="Roberts">M. G Roberts</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><institution>Centre for Mathematical Biology, Institute of Information & Mathematical Sciences, Massey University</institution><addr-line>Private Bag 102 904, North Shore Mail Centre, Auckland, New Zealand</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Nouvelle-Zélande</country><wicri:regionArea>Private Bag 102 904, North Shore Mail Centre, Auckland</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Baker, M" sort="Baker, M" uniqKey="Baker M" first="M" last="Baker">M. Baker</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Wellington School of Medicine & Health Sciences, Otago University</institution><addr-line>Wellington, New Zealand</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Nouvelle-Zélande</country><wicri:regionArea>Wellington</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jennings, L C" sort="Jennings, L C" uniqKey="Jennings L" first="L. C" last="Jennings">L. C Jennings</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><institution>Canterbury Health Laboratories, Canterbury District Health Board</institution><addr-line>PO Box 151, Christchurch, New Zealand</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Nouvelle-Zélande</country><wicri:regionArea>PO Box 151, Christchurch</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sertsou, G" sort="Sertsou, G" uniqKey="Sertsou G" first="G" last="Sertsou">G. Sertsou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Wellington School of Medicine & Health Sciences, Otago University</institution><addr-line>Wellington, New Zealand</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Nouvelle-Zélande</country><wicri:regionArea>Wellington</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wilson, N" sort="Wilson, N" uniqKey="Wilson N" first="N" last="Wilson">N. Wilson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Wellington School of Medicine & Health Sciences, Otago University</institution><addr-line>Wellington, New Zealand</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Nouvelle-Zélande</country><wicri:regionArea>Wellington</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of the Royal Society Interface</title><idno type="ISSN">1742-5689</idno><idno type="eISSN">1742-5662</idno><imprint><date when="2006">2006</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>In the event of an influenza pandemic, the most probable way in which the virus would be introduced to an isolated geographical area is by an infected traveller. We use a mathematical model, structured on the location at which infection occurs and based on published parameters for influenza, to describe an epidemic in a community of one million people. The model is then modified to reflect a variety of control strategies based on social distancing measures, targeted antiviral treatment and antiviral prophylaxis and home quarantine, and the effectiveness of the strategies is compared. The results suggest that the only single strategy that would be successful in preventing an epidemic (with <inline-formula><alternatives><mml:math id="M18"><mml:mi mathvariant="script">R</mml:mi></mml:math><inline-graphic xlink:href="rsif20060176e18.jpg"></inline-graphic></alternatives></inline-formula><sub>0</sub>=2.0) is targeted antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, and that closing schools combined with either closing work places or home quarantine would only prevent such an epidemic if these strategies were combined with a modest level of antiviral coverage.</p></div></front></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">J R Soc Interface</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">J R Soc Interface</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">RSIF</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Journal of the Royal Society Interface</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1742-5689</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1742-5662</issn><publisher><publisher-name>The Royal Society</publisher-name><publisher-loc>London</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">17251145</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">2359860</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">rsif20060176</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1098/rsif.2006.0176</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>A model for the spread and control of pandemic influenza in an isolated geographical region</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Roberts</surname><given-names>M.G</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1">*</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Baker</surname><given-names>M</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Jennings</surname><given-names>L.C</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">3</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Sertsou</surname><given-names>G</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wilson</surname><given-names>N</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><institution>Centre for Mathematical Biology, Institute of Information & Mathematical Sciences, Massey University</institution><addr-line>Private Bag 102 904, North Shore Mail Centre, Auckland, New Zealand</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><institution>Wellington School of Medicine & Health Sciences, Otago University</institution><addr-line>Wellington, New Zealand</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff3"><label>3</label><institution>Canterbury Health Laboratories, Canterbury District Health Board</institution><addr-line>PO Box 151, Christchurch, New Zealand</addr-line></aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><label>*</label>Author for correspondence (<email>m.g.roberts@massey.ac.nz</email>)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day><month>11</month><year>2006</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>22</day><month>4</month><year>2007</year></pub-date><volume>4</volume><issue>13</issue><fpage>325</fpage><lpage>330</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>3</day><month>10</month><year>2006</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>22</day><month>10</month><year>2006</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2006 The Royal Society</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2006</copyright-year></permissions><abstract><p>In the event of an influenza pandemic, the most probable way in which the virus would be introduced to an isolated geographical area is by an infected traveller. We use a mathematical model, structured on the location at which infection occurs and based on published parameters for influenza, to describe an epidemic in a community of one million people. The model is then modified to reflect a variety of control strategies based on social distancing measures, targeted antiviral treatment and antiviral prophylaxis and home quarantine, and the effectiveness of the strategies is compared. The results suggest that the only single strategy that would be successful in preventing an epidemic (with <inline-formula><alternatives><mml:math id="M18"><mml:mi mathvariant="script">R</mml:mi></mml:math><inline-graphic xlink:href="rsif20060176e18.jpg"></inline-graphic></alternatives></inline-formula><sub>0</sub>=2.0) is targeted antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, and that closing schools combined with either closing work places or home quarantine would only prevent such an epidemic if these strategies were combined with a modest level of antiviral coverage.</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>mathematical epidemiology</kwd><kwd>infectious diseases</kwd><kwd>exotic infections</kwd><kwd>pandemic influenza</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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