Determining the dynamics of influenza transmission by age
Identifieur interne : 000632 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000631; suivant : 000633Determining the dynamics of influenza transmission by age
Auteurs : Laura F. White [États-Unis] ; Brett Archer [Afrique du Sud] ; Marcello Pagano [États-Unis]Source :
- Emerging Themes in Epidemiology [ 1742-7622 ] ; 2014.
Abstract
It is widely accepted that influenza transmission dynamics vary by age; however methods to quantify the reproductive number by age group are limited. We introduce a simple method to estimate the reproductive number by modifying the method originally proposed by Wallinga and Teunis and using existing information on contact patterns between age groups. We additionally perform a sensitivity analysis to determine the potential impact of differential healthcare seeking patterns by age. We illustrate this method using data from the 2009 H1N1 Influenza pandemic in Gauteng Province, South Africa.
Our results are consistent with others in showing decreased transmission with age. We show that results can change markedly when we make the account for differential healthcare seeking behaviors by age.
We show substantial heterogeneity in transmission by age group during the Influenza A H1N1 pandemic in South Africa. This information can greatly assist in targeting interventions and implementing social distancing measures.
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/1742-7622-11-4
PubMed: 24656239
PubMed Central: 3997935
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<wicri:regionArea>Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, 801 Massachusetts Ave, Boston, MA 02118</wicri:regionArea>
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<author><name sortKey="Archer, Brett" sort="Archer, Brett" uniqKey="Archer B" first="Brett" last="Archer">Brett Archer</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Pagano, Marcello" sort="Pagano, Marcello" uniqKey="Pagano M" first="Marcello" last="Pagano">Marcello Pagano</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="I3">Department of Biostatistics, Harvard School of Public Health, 655 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115, USA</nlm:aff>
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Determining the dynamics of influenza transmission by age</title>
<author><name sortKey="White, Laura F" sort="White, Laura F" uniqKey="White L" first="Laura F" last="White">Laura F. White</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="I1">Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, 801 Massachusetts Ave, Boston, MA 02118, USA</nlm:aff>
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<author><name sortKey="Archer, Brett" sort="Archer, Brett" uniqKey="Archer B" first="Brett" last="Archer">Brett Archer</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="I2">National Institute of Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa</nlm:aff>
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<author><name sortKey="Pagano, Marcello" sort="Pagano, Marcello" uniqKey="Pagano M" first="Marcello" last="Pagano">Marcello Pagano</name>
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<series><title level="j">Emerging Themes in Epidemiology</title>
<idno type="eISSN">1742-7622</idno>
<imprint><date when="2014">2014</date>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title>
<p>It is widely accepted that influenza transmission dynamics vary by age; however methods to quantify the reproductive number by age group are limited. We introduce a simple method to estimate the reproductive number by modifying the method originally proposed by Wallinga and Teunis and using existing information on contact patterns between age groups. We additionally perform a sensitivity analysis to determine the potential impact of differential healthcare seeking patterns by age. We illustrate this method using data from the 2009 H1N1 Influenza pandemic in Gauteng Province, South Africa.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>Our results are consistent with others in showing decreased transmission with age. We show that results can change markedly when we make the account for differential healthcare seeking behaviors by age.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>We show substantial heterogeneity in transmission by age group during the Influenza A H1N1 pandemic in South Africa. This information can greatly assist in targeting interventions and implementing social distancing measures.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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<author><name sortKey="Slutsker, L" uniqKey="Slutsker L">L Slutsker</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dietz, V" uniqKey="Dietz V">V Dietz</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mccaig, Lf" uniqKey="Mccaig L">LF McCaig</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bresee, Js" uniqKey="Bresee J">JS Bresee</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Shapiro, C" uniqKey="Shapiro C">C Shapiro</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Griffin, Pm" uniqKey="Griffin P">PM Griffin</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tauxe, Rv" uniqKey="Tauxe R">RV Tauxe</name>
</author>
</analytic>
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<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S Cauchemez</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Boelle, Py" uniqKey="Boelle P">PY Boelle</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Thomas, G" uniqKey="Thomas G">G Thomas</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Valleron, Aj" uniqKey="Valleron A">AJ Valleron</name>
</author>
</analytic>
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<pmc article-type="research-article" xml:lang="en"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Emerg Themes Epidemiol</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Emerg Themes Epidemiol</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>Emerging Themes in Epidemiology</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1742-7622</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>BioMed Central</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">24656239</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">3997935</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">1742-7622-11-4</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1186/1742-7622-11-4</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Methodology</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>Determining the dynamics of influenza transmission by age</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" id="A1"><name><surname>White</surname>
<given-names>Laura F</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="I1">1</xref>
<email>lfwhite@bu.edu</email>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="A2"><name><surname>Archer</surname>
<given-names>Brett</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="I2">2</xref>
<email>brettarcher@hotmail.com</email>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="A3"><name><surname>Pagano</surname>
<given-names>Marcello</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="I3">3</xref>
<email>pagano@hsph.harvard.edu</email>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="I1"><label>1</label>
Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, 801 Massachusetts Ave, Boston, MA 02118, USA</aff>
<aff id="I2"><label>2</label>
National Institute of Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa</aff>
<aff id="I3"><label>3</label>
Department of Biostatistics, Harvard School of Public Health, 655 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115, USA</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2014</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>21</day>
<month>3</month>
<year>2014</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>11</volume>
<fpage>4</fpage>
<lpage>4</lpage>
<history><date date-type="received"><day>30</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2013</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>14</day>
<month>3</month>
<year>2014</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright © 2014 White et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2014</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder>White et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.</copyright-holder>
<license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0"><license-p>This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0</ext-link>
), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/</ext-link>
) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.ete-online.com/content/11/1/4"></self-uri>
<abstract><sec><title>Background</title>
<p>It is widely accepted that influenza transmission dynamics vary by age; however methods to quantify the reproductive number by age group are limited. We introduce a simple method to estimate the reproductive number by modifying the method originally proposed by Wallinga and Teunis and using existing information on contact patterns between age groups. We additionally perform a sensitivity analysis to determine the potential impact of differential healthcare seeking patterns by age. We illustrate this method using data from the 2009 H1N1 Influenza pandemic in Gauteng Province, South Africa.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>Our results are consistent with others in showing decreased transmission with age. We show that results can change markedly when we make the account for differential healthcare seeking behaviors by age.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>We show substantial heterogeneity in transmission by age group during the Influenza A H1N1 pandemic in South Africa. This information can greatly assist in targeting interventions and implementing social distancing measures.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>
<kwd-group><kwd>Pandemic influenza H1N1</kwd>
<kwd>Reproductive number</kwd>
<kwd>Infectious disease</kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
</pmc>
</record>
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