Global Mortality Impact of the 1957–1959 Influenza Pandemic
Identifieur interne : 000067 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000066; suivant : 000068Global Mortality Impact of the 1957–1959 Influenza Pandemic
Auteurs : Cécile Viboud [États-Unis] ; Lone Simonsen [États-Unis, Danemark] ; Rodrigo Fuentes ; Jose Flores [Chili] ; Mark A. Miller [États-Unis] ; Gerardo Chowell [États-Unis]Source :
- The Journal of Infectious Diseases [ 0022-1899 ] ; 2015.
Abstract
Url:
DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiv534
PubMed: 26908781
PubMed Central: 4747626
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Rodrigo Fuentes<affiliation><nlm:aff wicri:cut=", and" id="af6"><addr-line>Department of Epidemiology, Ministerio de Salud</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Ministerio de Salud</wicri:noCountry>
</affiliation>
Le document en format XML
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<author><name sortKey="Viboud, Cecile" sort="Viboud, Cecile" uniqKey="Viboud C" first="Cécile" last="Viboud">Cécile Viboud</name>
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,<addr-line>Washington D.C.</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
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<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af5"><addr-line>Department of Public Health</addr-line>
,<institution>University of Copenhagen</institution>
,<country>Denmark</country>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Danemark</country>
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<author><name sortKey="Fuentes, Rodrigo" sort="Fuentes, Rodrigo" uniqKey="Fuentes R" first="Rodrigo" last="Fuentes">Rodrigo Fuentes</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Flores, Jose" sort="Flores, Jose" uniqKey="Flores J" first="Jose" last="Flores">Jose Flores</name>
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<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af7"><addr-line>Biodiversity Laboratories, National Center for the Environment</addr-line>
,<institution>Universidad de Chile</institution>
,<addr-line>Santiago</addr-line>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Chili</country>
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<author><name sortKey="Miller, Mark A" sort="Miller, Mark A" uniqKey="Miller M" first="Mark A." last="Miller">Mark A. Miller</name>
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,<institution>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health</institution>
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<affiliation><nlm:aff id="af4"><institution>School of Public Health, Georgia State University</institution>
,<addr-line>Atlanta</addr-line>
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Global Mortality Impact of the 1957–1959 Influenza Pandemic</title>
<author><name sortKey="Viboud, Cecile" sort="Viboud, Cecile" uniqKey="Viboud C" first="Cécile" last="Viboud">Cécile Viboud</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="af1"><addr-line>Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies</addr-line>
,<institution>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health</institution>
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<wicri:cityArea>Bethesda</wicri:cityArea>
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<author><name sortKey="Simonsen, Lone" sort="Simonsen, Lone" uniqKey="Simonsen L" first="Lone" last="Simonsen">Lone Simonsen</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="af1"><addr-line>Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies</addr-line>
,<institution>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health</institution>
,<addr-line>Bethesda, Maryland</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
<wicri:cityArea>Bethesda</wicri:cityArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2"><addr-line>Department of Global Health</addr-line>
,<institution>George Washington University</institution>
,<addr-line>Washington D.C.</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af5"><addr-line>Department of Public Health</addr-line>
,<institution>University of Copenhagen</institution>
,<country>Denmark</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Danemark</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fuentes, Rodrigo" sort="Fuentes, Rodrigo" uniqKey="Fuentes R" first="Rodrigo" last="Fuentes">Rodrigo Fuentes</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff wicri:cut=", and" id="af6"><addr-line>Department of Epidemiology, Ministerio de Salud</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Ministerio de Salud</wicri:noCountry>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Flores, Jose" sort="Flores, Jose" uniqKey="Flores J" first="Jose" last="Flores">Jose Flores</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Department of Mathematical Sciences</addr-line>
,<institution>University of South Dakota</institution>
,<addr-line>Vermillion</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af7"><addr-line>Biodiversity Laboratories, National Center for the Environment</addr-line>
,<institution>Universidad de Chile</institution>
,<addr-line>Santiago</addr-line>
,<country>Chile</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Chili</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Miller, Mark A" sort="Miller, Mark A" uniqKey="Miller M" first="Mark A." last="Miller">Mark A. Miller</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="af1"><addr-line>Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies</addr-line>
,<institution>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health</institution>
,<addr-line>Bethesda, Maryland</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
<wicri:cityArea>Bethesda</wicri:cityArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="af1"><addr-line>Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies</addr-line>
,<institution>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health</institution>
,<addr-line>Bethesda, Maryland</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
<wicri:cityArea>Bethesda</wicri:cityArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="af4"><institution>School of Public Health, Georgia State University</institution>
,<addr-line>Atlanta</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
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<series><title level="j">The Journal of Infectious Diseases</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0022-1899</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1537-6613</idno>
<imprint><date when="2015">2015</date>
</imprint>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><bold><italic>Background.</italic>
</bold>
Quantitative estimates of the global burden of the 1957 influenza pandemic are lacking. Here we fill this gap by modeling historical mortality statistics.</p>
<p><bold><italic>Methods.</italic>
</bold>
We used annual rates of age- and cause-specific deaths to estimate pandemic-related mortality in excess of background levels in 39 countries in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Americas. We modeled the relationship between excess mortality and development indicators to extrapolate the global burden of the pandemic.</p>
<p><bold><italic>Results.</italic>
</bold>
The pandemic-associated excess respiratory mortality rate was 1.9/10 000 population (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2–2.6 cases/10 000 population) on average during 1957–1959. Excess mortality rates varied 70-fold across countries; Europe and Latin America experienced the lowest and highest rates, respectively. Excess mortality was delayed by 1–2 years in 18 countries (46%). Increases in the mortality rate relative to baseline were greatest in school-aged children and young adults, with no evidence that elderly population was spared from excess mortality. Development indicators were moderate predictors of excess mortality, explaining 35%–77% of the variance. Overall, we attribute 1.1 million excess deaths (95% CI, .7 million–1.5 million excess deaths) globally to the 1957–1959 pandemic.</p>
<p><bold><italic>Conclusions.</italic>
</bold>
The global mortality rate of the 1957–1959 influenza pandemic was moderate relative to that of the 1918 pandemic but was approximately 10-fold greater than that of the 2009 pandemic. The impact of the pandemic on mortality was delayed in several countries, pointing to a window of opportunity for vaccination in a future pandemic.</p>
</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">J Infect Dis</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">J. Infect. Dis</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">jid</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="hwp">jinfdis</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>The Journal of Infectious Diseases</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="ppub">0022-1899</issn>
<issn pub-type="epub">1537-6613</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Oxford University Press</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">26908781</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">4747626</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1093/infdis/jiv534</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">jiv534</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Major Articles and Brief Reports</subject>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Viruses</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>Global Mortality Impact of the 1957–1959 Influenza Pandemic</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Viboud</surname>
<given-names>Cécile</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Simonsen</surname>
<given-names>Lone</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1">1</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af2">2</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af5">5</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Fuentes</surname>
<given-names>Rodrigo</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af6">6</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Flores</surname>
<given-names>Jose</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af3">3</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af7">7</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Miller</surname>
<given-names>Mark A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Chowell</surname>
<given-names>Gerardo</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1">1</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af4">4</xref>
</contrib>
<aff id="af1"><label>1</label>
<addr-line>Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies</addr-line>
,<institution>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health</institution>
,<addr-line>Bethesda, Maryland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="af2"><label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Global Health</addr-line>
,<institution>George Washington University</institution>
,<addr-line>Washington D.C.</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="af3"><label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Mathematical Sciences</addr-line>
,<institution>University of South Dakota</institution>
,<addr-line>Vermillion</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="af4"><label>4</label>
<institution>School of Public Health, Georgia State University</institution>
,<addr-line>Atlanta</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="af5"><label>5</label>
<addr-line>Department of Public Health</addr-line>
,<institution>University of Copenhagen</institution>
,<country>Denmark</country>
</aff>
<aff id="af6"><label>6</label>
<addr-line>Department of Epidemiology, Ministerio de Salud</addr-line>
, and</aff>
<aff id="af7"><label>7</label>
<addr-line>Biodiversity Laboratories, National Center for the Environment</addr-line>
,<institution>Universidad de Chile</institution>
,<addr-line>Santiago</addr-line>
,<country>Chile</country>
</aff>
</contrib-group>
<author-notes><corresp>Correspondence: C. Viboud, Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, 16 Center Dr, Bethesda, MD 20892 (<email>viboudc@mail.nih.gov</email>
).</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>01</day>
<month>3</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>04</day>
<month>4</month>
<year>2015</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>01</day>
<month>3</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 12 months and
0 days and was based on the . </pmc-comment>
<volume>213</volume>
<issue>5</issue>
<fpage>738</fpage>
<lpage>745</lpage>
<history><date date-type="received"><day>18</day>
<month>9</month>
<year>2015</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>3</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2015</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2015</copyright-year>
</permissions>
<self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:href="jiv534.pdf"></self-uri>
<abstract><p><bold><italic>Background.</italic>
</bold>
Quantitative estimates of the global burden of the 1957 influenza pandemic are lacking. Here we fill this gap by modeling historical mortality statistics.</p>
<p><bold><italic>Methods.</italic>
</bold>
We used annual rates of age- and cause-specific deaths to estimate pandemic-related mortality in excess of background levels in 39 countries in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Americas. We modeled the relationship between excess mortality and development indicators to extrapolate the global burden of the pandemic.</p>
<p><bold><italic>Results.</italic>
</bold>
The pandemic-associated excess respiratory mortality rate was 1.9/10 000 population (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2–2.6 cases/10 000 population) on average during 1957–1959. Excess mortality rates varied 70-fold across countries; Europe and Latin America experienced the lowest and highest rates, respectively. Excess mortality was delayed by 1–2 years in 18 countries (46%). Increases in the mortality rate relative to baseline were greatest in school-aged children and young adults, with no evidence that elderly population was spared from excess mortality. Development indicators were moderate predictors of excess mortality, explaining 35%–77% of the variance. Overall, we attribute 1.1 million excess deaths (95% CI, .7 million–1.5 million excess deaths) globally to the 1957–1959 pandemic.</p>
<p><bold><italic>Conclusions.</italic>
</bold>
The global mortality rate of the 1957–1959 influenza pandemic was moderate relative to that of the 1918 pandemic but was approximately 10-fold greater than that of the 2009 pandemic. The impact of the pandemic on mortality was delayed in several countries, pointing to a window of opportunity for vaccination in a future pandemic.</p>
</abstract>
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<kwd>severity</kwd>
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<kwd>global disease burden</kwd>
<kwd>development indicators</kwd>
<kwd>health indicators</kwd>
<kwd>pandemic planning</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<funding-group><award-group id="funding-1"><funding-source>Fogarty International Center <named-content content-type="funder-id">http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000061</named-content>
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<award-group id="funding-2"><funding-source>National Institutes of Health <named-content content-type="funder-id">http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000002</named-content>
</funding-source>
</award-group>
<award-group id="funding-3"><funding-source>Marie Sklodowska-Curie Senior Fellowship</funding-source>
</award-group>
<award-group id="funding-4"><funding-source>award</funding-source>
<award-id>H2020-MSCA-IF-2014 to L. S.</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
</pmc>
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