Managing public health crises: the role of models in pandemic preparedness
Identifieur interne : 000010 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000009; suivant : 000011Managing public health crises: the role of models in pandemic preparedness
Auteurs : Seyed M. Moghadas ; Nick J. Pizzi ; Jianhong Wu ; Ping YanSource :
- Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses [ 1750-2640 ] ; 2009.
Abstract
Url:
DOI: 10.1111/j.1750-2659.2009.00081.x
PubMed: 19496845
PubMed Central: 4634525
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<author><name sortKey="Yan, Ping" sort="Yan, Ping" uniqKey="Yan P" first="Ping" last="Yan">Ping Yan</name>
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Managing public health crises: the role of models in pandemic preparedness</title>
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<series><title level="j">Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1750-2640</idno>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><bold>Background </bold>
Given the enormity of challenges involved in pandemic preparedness, design and implementation of effective and cost‐effective public health policies is a major task that requires an integrated approach through engagement of scientific, administrative, and political communities across disciplines. There is ample evidence to suggest that modeling may be a viable approach to accomplish this task.</p>
<p><bold>Methods </bold>
To demonstrate the importance of synergism between modelers, public health experts, and policymakers, the University of Winnipeg organized an interdisciplinary workshop on the role of models in pandemic preparedness in September 2008. The workshop provided an excellent opportunity to present outcomes of recent scientific investigations that thoroughly evaluate the merits of preventive, therapeutic, and social distancing mechanisms, where community structures, priority groups, healthcare providers, and responders to emergency situations are given specific consideration.</p>
<p><bold>Results </bold>
This interactive workshop was clearly successful in strengthening ties between various disciplines and creating venues for modelers to effectively communicate with policymakers. The importance of modeling in pandemic planning was highlighted, and key parameters that affect policy decision‐making were identified. Core assumptions and important activities in Canadian pandemic plans at the provincial and national levels were also discussed.</p>
<p><bold>Conclusions </bold>
There will be little time for thoughtful and rapid reflection once an influenza pandemic strikes, and therefore preparedness is an unavoidable priority. Modeling and simulations are key resources in pandemic planning to map out interdependencies and support complex decision‐making. Models are most effective in formulating strategies for managing public health crises when there are synergies between modelers, planners, and policymakers.</p>
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<pmc article-type="meeting-report"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Influenza Other Respir Viruses</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Influenza Other Respir Viruses</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="doi">10.1111/(ISSN)1750-2659</journal-id>
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<journal-title-group><journal-title>Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses</journal-title>
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<issn pub-type="ppub">1750-2640</issn>
<issn pub-type="epub">1750-2659</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Oxford, UK</publisher-loc>
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<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">19496845</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">4634525</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1111/j.1750-2659.2009.00081.x</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">IRV081</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Meeting Report</subject>
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<title-group><article-title>Managing public health crises: the role of models in pandemic preparedness</article-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="left-running-head">Moghadas <italic>et al.</italic>
</alt-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="right-running-head">Managing public health crises</alt-title>
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<contrib-group><contrib id="cr1" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Moghadas</surname>
<given-names>Seyed M.</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a1"><sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a2"><sup>2</sup>
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<contrib id="cr2" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Pizzi</surname>
<given-names>Nick J.</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a1"><sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a3"><sup>3</sup>
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<contrib id="cr3" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wu</surname>
<given-names>Jianhong</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a4"><sup>4</sup>
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<contrib id="cr4" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Yan</surname>
<given-names>Ping</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a5"><sup>5</sup>
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<aff id="a1"><label><sup>1</sup>
</label>
Institute for Biodiagnostics, National Research Council Canada, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada</aff>
<aff id="a2"><label><sup>2</sup>
</label>
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada</aff>
<aff id="a3"><label><sup>3</sup>
</label>
Department of Applied Computer Science, University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada</aff>
<aff id="a4"><label><sup>4</sup>
</label>
Centre for Disease Modelling, York Institute of Health Research, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada</aff>
<aff id="a5"><label><sup>5</sup>
</label>
Modelling & Projection Section, Surveillance and Risk Assessment Division, Centre for Communicable Diseases and Infection Control, Infectious Diseases and Emergency Preparedness Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1A 0K9</aff>
<author-notes><corresp id="correspondenceTo">Seyed M. Moghadas, Institute for Biodiagnostics, National Research Council Canada, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada R3B 1Y6. E‐mail: <email>seyed.moghadas@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca</email>
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<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>02</day>
<month>3</month>
<year>2009</year>
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<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>3</month>
<year>2009</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>3</volume>
<issue>2</issue>
<issue-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1111/irv.2009.3.issue-2</issue-id>
<fpage>75</fpage>
<lpage>79</lpage>
<history>Accepted 3 February 2009. Published Online 3 March 2009.</history>
<permissions><copyright-statement content-type="article-copyright">© 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd</copyright-statement>
</permissions>
<self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:type="simple" xlink:href="file:IRV-3-75.pdf"></self-uri>
<abstract abstract-type="main"><p><bold>Background </bold>
Given the enormity of challenges involved in pandemic preparedness, design and implementation of effective and cost‐effective public health policies is a major task that requires an integrated approach through engagement of scientific, administrative, and political communities across disciplines. There is ample evidence to suggest that modeling may be a viable approach to accomplish this task.</p>
<p><bold>Methods </bold>
To demonstrate the importance of synergism between modelers, public health experts, and policymakers, the University of Winnipeg organized an interdisciplinary workshop on the role of models in pandemic preparedness in September 2008. The workshop provided an excellent opportunity to present outcomes of recent scientific investigations that thoroughly evaluate the merits of preventive, therapeutic, and social distancing mechanisms, where community structures, priority groups, healthcare providers, and responders to emergency situations are given specific consideration.</p>
<p><bold>Results </bold>
This interactive workshop was clearly successful in strengthening ties between various disciplines and creating venues for modelers to effectively communicate with policymakers. The importance of modeling in pandemic planning was highlighted, and key parameters that affect policy decision‐making were identified. Core assumptions and important activities in Canadian pandemic plans at the provincial and national levels were also discussed.</p>
<p><bold>Conclusions </bold>
There will be little time for thoughtful and rapid reflection once an influenza pandemic strikes, and therefore preparedness is an unavoidable priority. Modeling and simulations are key resources in pandemic planning to map out interdependencies and support complex decision‐making. Models are most effective in formulating strategies for managing public health crises when there are synergies between modelers, planners, and policymakers.</p>
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