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The impact of contact structure on infectious disease control: influenza and antiviral agents

Identifieur interne : 000686 ( Pmc/Corpus ); précédent : 000685; suivant : 000687

The impact of contact structure on infectious disease control: influenza and antiviral agents

Auteurs : H.-P. Duerr ; M. Schwehm ; C. C. Leary ; S. J. De Vlas ; M. Eichner

Source :

RBID : PMC:2870680

Abstract

SUMMARY

Planning adequate public health responses against emerging infectious diseases requires predictive tools to evaluate the impact of candidate intervention strategies. With current interest in pandemic influenza very high, modelling approaches have suggested antiviral treatment combined with targeted prophylaxis as an effective first-line intervention against an emerging influenza pandemic. To investigate how the effectiveness of such interventions depends on contact structure, we simulate the effects in networks with variable degree distributions. The infection attack rate can increase if the number of contacts per person is heterogeneous, implying the existence of high-degree individuals who are potential super-spreaders. The effectiveness of a socially targeted intervention suffers from heterogeneous contact patterns and depends on whether infection is predominantly transmitted to close or casual contacts. Our findings imply that the various contact networks' degree distributions as well as the allocation of contagiousness between close and casual contacts should be examined to identify appropriate strategies of disease control measures.


Url:
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268807007959
PubMed: 17288643
PubMed Central: 2870680

Links to Exploration step

PMC:2870680

Le document en format XML

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<p>Planning adequate public health responses against emerging infectious diseases requires predictive tools to evaluate the impact of candidate intervention strategies. With current interest in pandemic influenza very high, modelling approaches have suggested antiviral treatment combined with targeted prophylaxis as an effective first-line intervention against an emerging influenza pandemic. To investigate how the effectiveness of such interventions depends on contact structure, we simulate the effects in networks with variable degree distributions. The infection attack rate can increase if the number of contacts per person is heterogeneous, implying the existence of high-degree individuals who are potential super-spreaders. The effectiveness of a socially targeted intervention suffers from heterogeneous contact patterns and depends on whether infection is predominantly transmitted to close or casual contacts. Our findings imply that the various contact networks' degree distributions as well as the allocation of contagiousness between close and casual contacts should be examined to identify appropriate strategies of disease control measures.</p>
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<alt-title alt-title-type="left-running">H.-P. Duerr and others</alt-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="right-running">Influenza and network structure</alt-title>
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Department of Medical Biometry, University of Tübingen, Germany</aff>
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Department of Mathematics, State University of New York at Geneseo, USA</aff>
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Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, The Netherlands</aff>
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Author for correspondence: Dr H.-P. Duerr, Institut für Medizinische Biometrie, Westbahnhofstr. 55, D-72070 Tübingen, Germany. (Email:
<email xlink:href="hans-peter.duerr@uni-tuebingen.de">hans-peter.duerr@uni-tuebingen.de</email>
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<title>SUMMARY</title>
<p>Planning adequate public health responses against emerging infectious diseases requires predictive tools to evaluate the impact of candidate intervention strategies. With current interest in pandemic influenza very high, modelling approaches have suggested antiviral treatment combined with targeted prophylaxis as an effective first-line intervention against an emerging influenza pandemic. To investigate how the effectiveness of such interventions depends on contact structure, we simulate the effects in networks with variable degree distributions. The infection attack rate can increase if the number of contacts per person is heterogeneous, implying the existence of high-degree individuals who are potential super-spreaders. The effectiveness of a socially targeted intervention suffers from heterogeneous contact patterns and depends on whether infection is predominantly transmitted to close or casual contacts. Our findings imply that the various contact networks' degree distributions as well as the allocation of contagiousness between close and casual contacts should be examined to identify appropriate strategies of disease control measures.</p>
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