Links to Exploration step
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Influenza pandemic preparedness in France: modelling the impact of interventions</title><author><name sortKey="Doyle, Aoife" sort="Doyle, Aoife" uniqKey="Doyle A" first="Aoife" last="Doyle">Aoife Doyle</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bonmarin, Isabelle" sort="Bonmarin, Isabelle" uniqKey="Bonmarin I" first="Isabelle" last="Bonmarin">Isabelle Bonmarin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Levy Ruhl, Daniel" sort="Levy Ruhl, Daniel" uniqKey="Levy Ruhl D" first="Daniel" last="Lévy-Bruhl">Daniel Lévy-Bruhl</name></author><author><name sortKey="Strat, Yann Le" sort="Strat, Yann Le" uniqKey="Strat Y" first="Yann Le" last="Strat">Yann Le Strat</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">16614329</idno><idno type="pmc">2563983</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2563983</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:2563983</idno><idno type="doi">10.1136/jech.2005.034082</idno><date when="2006">2006</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000333</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000333</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Influenza pandemic preparedness in France: modelling the impact of interventions</title><author><name sortKey="Doyle, Aoife" sort="Doyle, Aoife" uniqKey="Doyle A" first="Aoife" last="Doyle">Aoife Doyle</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bonmarin, Isabelle" sort="Bonmarin, Isabelle" uniqKey="Bonmarin I" first="Isabelle" last="Bonmarin">Isabelle Bonmarin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Levy Ruhl, Daniel" sort="Levy Ruhl, Daniel" uniqKey="Levy Ruhl D" first="Daniel" last="Lévy-Bruhl">Daniel Lévy-Bruhl</name></author><author><name sortKey="Strat, Yann Le" sort="Strat, Yann Le" uniqKey="Strat Y" first="Yann Le" last="Strat">Yann Le Strat</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health</title><idno type="ISSN">0143-005X</idno><idno type="eISSN">1470-2738</idno><imprint><date when="2006">2006</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>Influenza pandemics result in excess mortality and social disruption. To assist health authorities update the French pandemic plan, the authors estimated the number of health events (cases, hospitalisations, and deaths) in a pandemic and compared interventions in terms of impact and efficiency.</p></sec><sec><title>Method</title><p>A Monte Carlo simulation model, incorporating probability distributions of key variables, provided estimates of health events (HE) by age and risk group. Input variables were set after literature and expert consultation. The impact of targeted influenza vaccination and antiviral prophylaxis/treatment (oseltamivir) in high risk groups (elderly, chronic diseases), priority (essential professionals), and total populations was compared. Outcome measures were HE avoided, number of doses needed, and direct cost per HE avoided.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Without intervention, an influenza pandemic could result in 14.9 million cases, 0.12 million deaths, and 0.6 million hospitalisations in France. Twenty four per cent of deaths and 40% of hospitalisations would be among high risk groups. With a 25% attack rate, 2000–86 000 deaths could be avoided, depending on population targeted and intervention. If available initially, vaccination of the total population is preferred. If not, for priority populations, seasonal prophylaxis seems the best strategy. For high risk groups, antiviral treatment, although less effective, seems more feasible and cost effective than prophylaxis (respectively 29% deaths avoided; 1800 doses/death avoided and 56% deaths avoided; 18 500 doses/death avoided) and should be chosen, especially if limited drug availability.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusion</title><p>The results suggest a strong role for antivirals in an influenza pandemic. While this model can compare the impact of different intervention strategies, there remains uncertainty surrounding key variables.</p></sec></div></front></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">J Epidemiol Community Health</journal-id><journal-title>Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health</journal-title><issn pub-type="ppub">0143-005X</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1470-2738</issn><publisher><publisher-name>BMJ Group</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">16614329</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">2563983</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">ch34082</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1136/jech.2005.034082</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Evidence Based Public Health Policy and Practice</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Influenza pandemic preparedness in France: modelling the impact of interventions</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Doyle</surname><given-names>Aoife</given-names></name></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Bonmarin</surname><given-names>Isabelle</given-names></name></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lévy‐Bruhl</surname><given-names>Daniel</given-names></name></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Strat</surname><given-names>Yann Le</given-names></name></contrib><on-behalf-of>Jean‐Claude Desenclos</on-behalf-of></contrib-group><aff><bold>A Doyle</bold>, EPIET and Institut de Veille Sanitaire, France</aff><aff><bold>I Bonmarin</bold>,<bold>D Lévy‐Bruhl</bold>,<bold>Y L Strat</bold>,<bold>J‐C Desenclos</bold>, Institut de Veille Sanitaire</aff><author-notes><corresp>Correspondence to: MsA Doyle<break></break>Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1 7HT, UK; aoife.doyle@lshtm.ac.uk</corresp><fn fn-type="conflict"><p>Competing interests: none declared.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>5</month><year>2006</year></pub-date><volume>60</volume><issue>5</issue><fpage>399</fpage><lpage>404</lpage><history><date date-type="accepted"><day>1</day><month>1</month><year>2006</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright ©2006 BMJ Publishing Group Ltd.</copyright-statement></permissions><abstract><sec><title>Background</title><p>Influenza pandemics result in excess mortality and social disruption. To assist health authorities update the French pandemic plan, the authors estimated the number of health events (cases, hospitalisations, and deaths) in a pandemic and compared interventions in terms of impact and efficiency.</p></sec><sec><title>Method</title><p>A Monte Carlo simulation model, incorporating probability distributions of key variables, provided estimates of health events (HE) by age and risk group. Input variables were set after literature and expert consultation. The impact of targeted influenza vaccination and antiviral prophylaxis/treatment (oseltamivir) in high risk groups (elderly, chronic diseases), priority (essential professionals), and total populations was compared. Outcome measures were HE avoided, number of doses needed, and direct cost per HE avoided.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Without intervention, an influenza pandemic could result in 14.9 million cases, 0.12 million deaths, and 0.6 million hospitalisations in France. Twenty four per cent of deaths and 40% of hospitalisations would be among high risk groups. With a 25% attack rate, 2000–86 000 deaths could be avoided, depending on population targeted and intervention. If available initially, vaccination of the total population is preferred. If not, for priority populations, seasonal prophylaxis seems the best strategy. For high risk groups, antiviral treatment, although less effective, seems more feasible and cost effective than prophylaxis (respectively 29% deaths avoided; 1800 doses/death avoided and 56% deaths avoided; 18 500 doses/death avoided) and should be chosen, especially if limited drug availability.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusion</title><p>The results suggest a strong role for antivirals in an influenza pandemic. While this model can compare the impact of different intervention strategies, there remains uncertainty surrounding key variables.</p></sec></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>influenza</kwd><kwd>pandemic</kwd><kwd>disaster planning</kwd><kwd>antiviral agents</kwd><kwd>models</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/PandemieGrippaleV1/Data/Pmc/Corpus
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000333 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Pmc/Corpus/biblio.hfd -nk 000333 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= PandemieGrippaleV1
|flux= Pmc
|étape= Corpus
|type= RBID
|clé=
|texte=
}}
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.34. |  |