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The 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru

Identifieur interne : 000806 ( Pmc/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000805; suivant : 000807

The 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru

Auteurs : G. Chowell [États-Unis] ; C. Viboud [États-Unis] ; L. Simonsen [États-Unis] ; M. A. Miller [États-Unis] ; J. Hurtado [Pérou] ; G. Soto [Pérou] ; R. Vargas [Pérou] ; M. A. Guzman [Pérou] ; M. Ulloa [Pérou] ; C. V. Munayco [Pérou]

Source :

RBID : PMC:3144394

Abstract

Background

Increasing our knowledge of past influenza pandemic patterns in different regions of the world is crucial to guide preparedness plans against future influenza pandemics. Here, we undertook extensive archival collection efforts from 3 representative cities of Peru (Lima in the central coast, Iquitos in the northeastern Amazon region, Ica in the southern coast) to characterize the age and geographic patterns of the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in this country.

Materials and Methods

We analyzed historical documents describing the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru and retrieved individual mortality records from local provincial archives for quantitative analysis. We applied seasonal excess mortality models to daily and monthly respiratory mortality rates for 1917–1920 and quantified transmissibility estimates based on the daily growth rate in respiratory deaths.

Results

A total of 52,739 individual mortality records were inspected from local provincial archives. We found evidence for an initial mild pandemic wave during July-September 1918 in Lima, identified a synchronized severe pandemic wave of respiratory mortality in all three locations in Peru during November 1918-February 1919, and a severe pandemic wave during January 1920- March 1920 in Lima and July-October 1920 in Ica. There was no recrudescent pandemic wave in 1920 in Iquitos. Remarkably, Lima experienced the brunt of the 1918–20 excess mortality impact during the 1920 recrudescent wave, with all age groups experiencing an increase in all cause excess mortality from 1918–19 to 1920. Middle age groups experienced the highest excess mortality impact, relative to baseline levels, in the 1918–19 and 1920 pandemic waves. Cumulative excess mortality rates for the 1918–20 pandemic period were higher in Iquitos (2.9%) than Lima (1.6%). The mean reproduction number for Lima was estimated in the range 1.3–1.5.

Conclusions

We identified synchronized pandemic waves of intense excess respiratory mortality during November 1918-February 1919 in Lima, Iquitos, Ica, followed by asynchronous recrudescent waves in 1920. Cumulative data from quantitative studies of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Latin American settings have confirmed the high mortality impact associated with this pandemic. Further historical studies in lesser-studied regions of Latin America, Africa, and Asia are warranted for a full understanding of the global impact of the 1918 pandemic virus.


Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.02.048
PubMed: 21757099
PubMed Central: 3144394


Affiliations:


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PMC:3144394

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<country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Pérou</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Dirección General de Epidemiología, Perú Ministerio de Salud, Lima</wicri:regionArea>
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<name sortKey="Munayco, C V" sort="Munayco, C V" uniqKey="Munayco C" first="C. V." last="Munayco">C. V. Munayco</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Pérou</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Dirección General de Epidemiología, Perú Ministerio de Salud, Lima</wicri:regionArea>
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<title>Background</title>
<p id="P1">Increasing our knowledge of past influenza pandemic patterns in different regions of the world is crucial to guide preparedness plans against future influenza pandemics. Here, we undertook extensive archival collection efforts from 3 representative cities of Peru (Lima in the central coast, Iquitos in the northeastern Amazon region, Ica in the southern coast) to characterize the age and geographic patterns of the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in this country.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="materials|methods" id="S2">
<title>Materials and Methods</title>
<p id="P2">We analyzed historical documents describing the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru and retrieved individual mortality records from local provincial archives for quantitative analysis. We applied seasonal excess mortality models to daily and monthly respiratory mortality rates for 1917–1920 and quantified transmissibility estimates based on the daily growth rate in respiratory deaths.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="S3">
<title>Results</title>
<p id="P3">A total of 52,739 individual mortality records were inspected from local provincial archives. We found evidence for an initial mild pandemic wave during July-September 1918 in Lima, identified a synchronized severe pandemic wave of respiratory mortality in all three locations in Peru during November 1918-February 1919, and a severe pandemic wave during January 1920- March 1920 in Lima and July-October 1920 in Ica. There was no recrudescent pandemic wave in 1920 in Iquitos. Remarkably, Lima experienced the brunt of the 1918–20 excess mortality impact during the 1920 recrudescent wave, with all age groups experiencing an increase in all cause excess mortality from 1918–19 to 1920. Middle age groups experienced the highest excess mortality impact, relative to baseline levels, in the 1918–19 and 1920 pandemic waves. Cumulative excess mortality rates for the 1918–20 pandemic period were higher in Iquitos (2.9%) than Lima (1.6%). The mean reproduction number for Lima was estimated in the range 1.3–1.5.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="S4">
<title>Conclusions</title>
<p id="P4">We identified synchronized pandemic waves of intense excess respiratory mortality during November 1918-February 1919 in Lima, Iquitos, Ica, followed by asynchronous recrudescent waves in 1920. Cumulative data from quantitative studies of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Latin American settings have confirmed the high mortality impact associated with this pandemic. Further historical studies in lesser-studied regions of Latin America, Africa, and Asia are warranted for a full understanding of the global impact of the 1918 pandemic virus.</p>
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<name>
<surname>Chowell</surname>
<given-names>G.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A1">1</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A2">2</xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1">*</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Viboud</surname>
<given-names>C.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A2">2</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Simonsen</surname>
<given-names>L.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A2">2</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A3">3</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Miller</surname>
<given-names>M.A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A1">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Hurtado</surname>
<given-names>J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A4">4</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Soto</surname>
<given-names>G.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A4">4</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Vargas</surname>
<given-names>R.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A5">5</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Guzman</surname>
<given-names>M.A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A6">6</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Ulloa</surname>
<given-names>M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A4">4</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Munayco</surname>
<given-names>C.V.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A4">4</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="A1">
<label>1</label>
Mathematical, Computational & Modeling Sciences Center, School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA</aff>
<aff id="A2">
<label>2</label>
Division of Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA</aff>
<aff id="A3">
<label>3</label>
Department of Global Health, School of Public Health and Health Services, George Washington University, Washington DC, USA</aff>
<aff id="A4">
<label>4</label>
Dirección General de Epidemiología, Perú Ministerio de Salud, Lima, Perú</aff>
<aff id="A5">
<label>5</label>
Hospital Belén, Dirección Regional de Salud, La Libertad, Perú</aff>
<aff id="A6">
<label>6</label>
Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana, Perú</aff>
<author-notes>
<corresp id="cor1">
<label>*</label>
Corresponding author.
<email>gchowell@asu.edu</email>
, Fax: 480-965-7671</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="nihms-submitted">
<day>9</day>
<month>4</month>
<year>2011</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub">
<day>22</day>
<month>7</month>
<year>2011</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="pmc-release">
<day>22</day>
<month>7</month>
<year>2012</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>29</volume>
<issue>Suppl 2</issue>
<fpage>B21</fpage>
<lpage>B26</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>© 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2011</copyright-year>
</permissions>
<abstract>
<sec id="S1">
<title>Background</title>
<p id="P1">Increasing our knowledge of past influenza pandemic patterns in different regions of the world is crucial to guide preparedness plans against future influenza pandemics. Here, we undertook extensive archival collection efforts from 3 representative cities of Peru (Lima in the central coast, Iquitos in the northeastern Amazon region, Ica in the southern coast) to characterize the age and geographic patterns of the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in this country.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="materials|methods" id="S2">
<title>Materials and Methods</title>
<p id="P2">We analyzed historical documents describing the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru and retrieved individual mortality records from local provincial archives for quantitative analysis. We applied seasonal excess mortality models to daily and monthly respiratory mortality rates for 1917–1920 and quantified transmissibility estimates based on the daily growth rate in respiratory deaths.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="S3">
<title>Results</title>
<p id="P3">A total of 52,739 individual mortality records were inspected from local provincial archives. We found evidence for an initial mild pandemic wave during July-September 1918 in Lima, identified a synchronized severe pandemic wave of respiratory mortality in all three locations in Peru during November 1918-February 1919, and a severe pandemic wave during January 1920- March 1920 in Lima and July-October 1920 in Ica. There was no recrudescent pandemic wave in 1920 in Iquitos. Remarkably, Lima experienced the brunt of the 1918–20 excess mortality impact during the 1920 recrudescent wave, with all age groups experiencing an increase in all cause excess mortality from 1918–19 to 1920. Middle age groups experienced the highest excess mortality impact, relative to baseline levels, in the 1918–19 and 1920 pandemic waves. Cumulative excess mortality rates for the 1918–20 pandemic period were higher in Iquitos (2.9%) than Lima (1.6%). The mean reproduction number for Lima was estimated in the range 1.3–1.5.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="S4">
<title>Conclusions</title>
<p id="P4">We identified synchronized pandemic waves of intense excess respiratory mortality during November 1918-February 1919 in Lima, Iquitos, Ica, followed by asynchronous recrudescent waves in 1920. Cumulative data from quantitative studies of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Latin American settings have confirmed the high mortality impact associated with this pandemic. Further historical studies in lesser-studied regions of Latin America, Africa, and Asia are warranted for a full understanding of the global impact of the 1918 pandemic virus.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd>1918 influenza pandemic</kwd>
<kwd>Peru</kwd>
<kwd>Lima</kwd>
<kwd>Iquitos</kwd>
<kwd>transmissibility</kwd>
<kwd>age-specific mortality</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<funding-group>
<award-group>
<funding-source country="United States">NIH Intramural Employee : PHS</funding-source>
<award-id>NIH0011435530 || PHS</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
</pmc>
<affiliations>
<list>
<country>
<li>Pérou</li>
<li>États-Unis</li>
</country>
<region>
<li>Arizona</li>
<li>District de Columbia</li>
<li>Maryland</li>
</region>
<settlement>
<li>Washington (district de Columbia)</li>
</settlement>
</list>
<tree>
<country name="États-Unis">
<region name="Arizona">
<name sortKey="Chowell, G" sort="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="G." last="Chowell">G. Chowell</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Chowell, G" sort="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="G." last="Chowell">G. Chowell</name>
<name sortKey="Miller, M A" sort="Miller, M A" uniqKey="Miller M" first="M. A." last="Miller">M. A. Miller</name>
<name sortKey="Simonsen, L" sort="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L" first="L." last="Simonsen">L. Simonsen</name>
<name sortKey="Simonsen, L" sort="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L" first="L." last="Simonsen">L. Simonsen</name>
<name sortKey="Viboud, C" sort="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C" first="C." last="Viboud">C. Viboud</name>
</country>
<country name="Pérou">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Hurtado, J" sort="Hurtado, J" uniqKey="Hurtado J" first="J." last="Hurtado">J. Hurtado</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Guzman, M A" sort="Guzman, M A" uniqKey="Guzman M" first="M. A." last="Guzman">M. A. Guzman</name>
<name sortKey="Munayco, C V" sort="Munayco, C V" uniqKey="Munayco C" first="C. V." last="Munayco">C. V. Munayco</name>
<name sortKey="Soto, G" sort="Soto, G" uniqKey="Soto G" first="G." last="Soto">G. Soto</name>
<name sortKey="Ulloa, M" sort="Ulloa, M" uniqKey="Ulloa M" first="M." last="Ulloa">M. Ulloa</name>
<name sortKey="Vargas, R" sort="Vargas, R" uniqKey="Vargas R" first="R." last="Vargas">R. Vargas</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

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