Estimated global mortality associated with the first 12 months of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus circulation: a modelling study
Identifieur interne : 001903 ( PascalFrancis/Curation ); précédent : 001902; suivant : 001904Estimated global mortality associated with the first 12 months of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus circulation: a modelling study
Auteurs : Fatimah S. Dawood [États-Unis] ; A. Danielle Luliano [États-Unis] ; Carrie Reed [États-Unis] ; Martin I. Meltzer [États-Unis] ; David K. Shay [États-Unis] ; Po-Yung Cheng [États-Unis] ; Don Bandaranayake [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; Robert F. Breiman [Kenya] ; W. Abdullah Brooks [Bangladesh, États-Unis] ; Philippe Buchy [États-Unis] ; Daniel R. Feikin [Kenya] ; Karen B. Fowler [États-Unis] ; Aubree Gordon [États-Unis] ; Nguyen Tran Hien [Viêt Nam] ; Peter Horby [Viêt Nam] ; Q. Sue Huang [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; Mark A. Katz [Kenya] ; Anand Krishnan [Inde] ; Renu Lal [États-Unis] ; Joel M. Montgomery [Pérou] ; K Re M Lbak [Danemark] ; Richard Pebody [Royaume-Uni] ; Anne M. Presanis [Royaume-Uni] ; Hugo Razuri [Pérou] ; Anneke Steens [Pays-Bas] ; Yeny O. Tinoco [États-Unis] ; Jacco Wallinga [Pays-Bas] ; Hongjie Yu [République populaire de Chine] ; Sirenda Vong [Cambodge] ; Joseph Bresee [États-Unis] ; Marc-Alain Widdowson [États-Unis]Source :
- Lancet. Infectious diseases : (print) [ 1473-3099 ] ; 2012.
Descripteurs français
- Pascal (Inist)
- Wicri :
- topic : Mortalité.
English descriptors
Abstract
Background 18 500 laboratory-confirmed deaths caused by the 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 were reported worldwide for the period April, 2009, to August, 2010. This number is likely to be only a fraction of the true number of the deaths associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1. We aimed to estimate the global number of deaths during the first 12 months of virus circulation in each country. Methods We calculated crude respiratory mortality rates associated with the 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 strain by age (0-17 years, 18-64 years, and >64 years) using the cumulative (12 months) virus-associated symptomatic attack rates from 12 countries and symptomatic case fatality ratios (sCFR) from five high-income countries. To adjust crude mortality rates for differences between countries in risk of death from influenza, we developed a respiratory mortality multiplier equal to the ratio of the median lower respiratory tract infection mortality rate in each WHO region mortality stratum to the median in countries with very low mortality. We calculated cardiovascular disease mortality rates associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 infection with the ratio of excess deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases during the pandemic in five countries and multiplied these values by the crude respiratory disease mortality rate associated with the virus. Respiratory and cardiovascular mortality rates associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 were multiplied by age to calculate the number of associated deaths. Findings We estimate that globally there were 201200 respiratory deaths (range 105 700-395 600) with an additional 83300 cardiovascular deaths (46000-179900) associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1. 80% of the respiratory and cardiovascular deaths were in people younger than 65 years and 51% occurred in southeast Asia and Africa. Interpretation Our estimate of respiratory and cardiovascular mortality associated with the 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 was 15 times higher than reported laboratory-confirmed deaths. Although no estimates of sCFRs were available from Africa and southeast Asia, a disproportionate number of estimated pandemic deaths might have occurred in these regions. Therefore, efforts to prevent influenza need to effectively target these regions in future pandemics.
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a">Estimated global mortality associated with the first 12 months of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus circulation: a modelling study</title>
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<sZ>31 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Reed, Carrie" sort="Reed, Carrie" uniqKey="Reed C" first="Carrie" last="Reed">Carrie Reed</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</s1>
<s2>Atlanta, GA</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>2 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>3 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>5 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>6 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>10 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>19 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>26 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>31 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Meltzer, Martin I" sort="Meltzer, Martin I" uniqKey="Meltzer M" first="Martin I." last="Meltzer">Martin I. Meltzer</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>Scientific and Program Services Branch, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</s1>
<s2>Atlanta, GA</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>4 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Shay, David K" sort="Shay, David K" uniqKey="Shay D" first="David K." last="Shay">David K. Shay</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</s1>
<s2>Atlanta, GA</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>2 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>3 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>5 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>6 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>10 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>19 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>26 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>31 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cheng, Po Yung" sort="Cheng, Po Yung" uniqKey="Cheng P" first="Po-Yung" last="Cheng">Po-Yung Cheng</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</s1>
<s2>Atlanta, GA</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>2 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>3 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>5 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>6 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>10 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>19 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>26 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>31 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bandaranayake, Don" sort="Bandaranayake, Don" uniqKey="Bandaranayake D" first="Don" last="Bandaranayake">Don Bandaranayake</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="03"><s1>National Centre for Biosecurity and Infectious Disease, Environmental Science and Research Institute</s1>
<s2>Upper Hutt</s2>
<s3>NZL</s3>
<sZ>7 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>16 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Nouvelle-Zélande</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Breiman, Robert F" sort="Breiman, Robert F" uniqKey="Breiman R" first="Robert F." last="Breiman">Robert F. Breiman</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="04"><s1>Glob al Disease Detection Division, Kenya Medical Research Institute/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</s1>
<s2>Nairobi</s2>
<s3>KEN</s3>
<sZ>8 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>11 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>17 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Kenya</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Abdullah Brooks, W" sort="Abdullah Brooks, W" uniqKey="Abdullah Brooks W" first="W." last="Abdullah Brooks">W. Abdullah Brooks</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="05"><s1>International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research</s1>
<s2>Dhaka</s2>
<s3>BGD</s3>
<sZ>9 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Bangladesh</country>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="06"><s1>Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health</s1>
<s2>Baltimore, MD</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>9 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Buchy, Philippe" sort="Buchy, Philippe" uniqKey="Buchy P" first="Philippe" last="Buchy">Philippe Buchy</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</s1>
<s2>Atlanta, GA</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>2 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>3 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>5 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>6 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>10 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>19 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>26 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>31 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Feikin, Daniel R" sort="Feikin, Daniel R" uniqKey="Feikin D" first="Daniel R." last="Feikin">Daniel R. Feikin</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="04"><s1>Glob al Disease Detection Division, Kenya Medical Research Institute/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</s1>
<s2>Nairobi</s2>
<s3>KEN</s3>
<sZ>8 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>11 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>17 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Kenya</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fowler, Karen B" sort="Fowler, Karen B" uniqKey="Fowler K" first="Karen B." last="Fowler">Karen B. Fowler</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="08"><s1>University of Alabama</s1>
<s2>Birmingham, AL</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>12 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gordon, Aubree" sort="Gordon, Aubree" uniqKey="Gordon A" first="Aubree" last="Gordon">Aubree Gordon</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="09"><s1>University of California</s1>
<s2>Berkeley, CA</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>13 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="10"><s1>John E Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health</s1>
<s2>Bethesda, MD</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>13 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tran Hien, Nguyen" sort="Tran Hien, Nguyen" uniqKey="Tran Hien N" first="Nguyen" last="Tran Hien">Nguyen Tran Hien</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="11"><s1>National Institute for Hygiene and Epidemiology</s1>
<s2>Hanoi</s2>
<s3>VNM</s3>
<sZ>14 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Viêt Nam</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Horby, Peter" sort="Horby, Peter" uniqKey="Horby P" first="Peter" last="Horby">Peter Horby</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="12"><s1>Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit</s1>
<s2>Hanoi</s2>
<s3>VNM</s3>
<sZ>15 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Viêt Nam</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Sue Huang, Q" sort="Sue Huang, Q" uniqKey="Sue Huang Q" first="Q." last="Sue Huang">Q. Sue Huang</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="03"><s1>National Centre for Biosecurity and Infectious Disease, Environmental Science and Research Institute</s1>
<s2>Upper Hutt</s2>
<s3>NZL</s3>
<sZ>7 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>16 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Nouvelle-Zélande</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Katz, Mark A" sort="Katz, Mark A" uniqKey="Katz M" first="Mark A." last="Katz">Mark A. Katz</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="04"><s1>Glob al Disease Detection Division, Kenya Medical Research Institute/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</s1>
<s2>Nairobi</s2>
<s3>KEN</s3>
<sZ>8 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>11 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>17 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Kenya</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Krishnan, Anand" sort="Krishnan, Anand" uniqKey="Krishnan A" first="Anand" last="Krishnan">Anand Krishnan</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="13"><s1>Centre for Community Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences</s1>
<s2>New Delhi</s2>
<s3>IND</s3>
<sZ>18 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Inde</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lal, Renu" sort="Lal, Renu" uniqKey="Lal R" first="Renu" last="Lal">Renu Lal</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</s1>
<s2>Atlanta, GA</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>2 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>3 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>5 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>6 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>10 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>19 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>26 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>31 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Montgomery, Joel M" sort="Montgomery, Joel M" uniqKey="Montgomery J" first="Joel M." last="Montgomery">Joel M. Montgomery</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="14"><s1>Naval Medical Research Unit-6</s1>
<s2>Lima</s2>
<s3>PER</s3>
<sZ>20 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>24 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Pérou</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="M Lbak, K Re" sort="M Lbak, K Re" uniqKey="M Lbak K" first="K Re" last="M Lbak">K Re M Lbak</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="15"><s1>Department of Epidemiology, Statens Serum Institute</s1>
<s2>Copenhagen</s2>
<s3>DNK</s3>
<sZ>21 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Danemark</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Pebody, Richard" sort="Pebody, Richard" uniqKey="Pebody R" first="Richard" last="Pebody">Richard Pebody</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="16"><s1>Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit</s1>
<s2>Cambridge</s2>
<s3>GBR</s3>
<sZ>22 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>23 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Royaume-Uni</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Presanis, Anne M" sort="Presanis, Anne M" uniqKey="Presanis A" first="Anne M." last="Presanis">Anne M. Presanis</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="16"><s1>Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit</s1>
<s2>Cambridge</s2>
<s3>GBR</s3>
<sZ>22 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>23 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Royaume-Uni</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Razuri, Hugo" sort="Razuri, Hugo" uniqKey="Razuri H" first="Hugo" last="Razuri">Hugo Razuri</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="14"><s1>Naval Medical Research Unit-6</s1>
<s2>Lima</s2>
<s3>PER</s3>
<sZ>20 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>24 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Pérou</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Steens, Anneke" sort="Steens, Anneke" uniqKey="Steens A" first="Anneke" last="Steens">Anneke Steens</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="17"><s1>Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment</s1>
<s2>Bilthoven</s2>
<s3>NLD</s3>
<sZ>25 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>27 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Pays-Bas</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tinoco, Yeny O" sort="Tinoco, Yeny O" uniqKey="Tinoco Y" first="Yeny O." last="Tinoco">Yeny O. Tinoco</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</s1>
<s2>Atlanta, GA</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>2 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>3 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>5 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>6 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>10 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>19 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>26 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>31 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wallinga, Jacco" sort="Wallinga, Jacco" uniqKey="Wallinga J" first="Jacco" last="Wallinga">Jacco Wallinga</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="17"><s1>Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment</s1>
<s2>Bilthoven</s2>
<s3>NLD</s3>
<sZ>25 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>27 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Pays-Bas</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yu, Hongjie" sort="Yu, Hongjie" uniqKey="Yu H" first="Hongjie" last="Yu">Hongjie Yu</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="18"><s1>Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</s1>
<s2>Beijing</s2>
<s3>CHN</s3>
<sZ>28 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>République populaire de Chine</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Vong, Sirenda" sort="Vong, Sirenda" uniqKey="Vong S" first="Sirenda" last="Vong">Sirenda Vong</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="19"><s1>Institut Pasteur</s1>
<s2>Phnom Penh</s2>
<s3>KHM</s3>
<sZ>29 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Cambodge</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bresee, Joseph" sort="Bresee, Joseph" uniqKey="Bresee J" first="Joseph" last="Bresee">Joseph Bresee</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="07"><s1>National Influenza Center</s1>
<s2>Phnom Penh, Cambodia</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>30 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Widdowson, Marc Alain" sort="Widdowson, Marc Alain" uniqKey="Widdowson M" first="Marc-Alain" last="Widdowson">Marc-Alain Widdowson</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</s1>
<s2>Atlanta, GA</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>2 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>3 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>5 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>6 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>10 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>19 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>26 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>31 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j" type="main">Lancet. Infectious diseases : (print)</title>
<title level="j" type="abbreviated">Lancet. Infect. dis. : (print)</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1473-3099</idno>
<imprint><date when="2012">2012</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
<seriesStmt><title level="j" type="main">Lancet. Infectious diseases : (print)</title>
<title level="j" type="abbreviated">Lancet. Infect. dis. : (print)</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1473-3099</idno>
</seriesStmt>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>H1N1 influenza</term>
<term>Influenza A (H1N1)</term>
<term>Influenza A virus</term>
<term>Modeling</term>
<term>Mortality</term>
<term>Prognosis</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr"><term>Mortalité</term>
<term>Modélisation</term>
<term>Virus grippal A</term>
<term>Pronostic</term>
<term>Grippe H1N1</term>
<term>Virus grippal A(H1N1)</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Mortalité</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Background 18 500 laboratory-confirmed deaths caused by the 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 were reported worldwide for the period April, 2009, to August, 2010. This number is likely to be only a fraction of the true number of the deaths associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1. We aimed to estimate the global number of deaths during the first 12 months of virus circulation in each country. Methods We calculated crude respiratory mortality rates associated with the 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 strain by age (0-17 years, 18-64 years, and >64 years) using the cumulative (12 months) virus-associated symptomatic attack rates from 12 countries and symptomatic case fatality ratios (sCFR) from five high-income countries. To adjust crude mortality rates for differences between countries in risk of death from influenza, we developed a respiratory mortality multiplier equal to the ratio of the median lower respiratory tract infection mortality rate in each WHO region mortality stratum to the median in countries with very low mortality. We calculated cardiovascular disease mortality rates associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 infection with the ratio of excess deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases during the pandemic in five countries and multiplied these values by the crude respiratory disease mortality rate associated with the virus. Respiratory and cardiovascular mortality rates associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 were multiplied by age to calculate the number of associated deaths. Findings We estimate that globally there were 201200 respiratory deaths (range 105 700-395 600) with an additional 83300 cardiovascular deaths (46000-179900) associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1. 80% of the respiratory and cardiovascular deaths were in people younger than 65 years and 51% occurred in southeast Asia and Africa. Interpretation Our estimate of respiratory and cardiovascular mortality associated with the 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 was 15 times higher than reported laboratory-confirmed deaths. Although no estimates of sCFRs were available from Africa and southeast Asia, a disproportionate number of estimated pandemic deaths might have occurred in these regions. Therefore, efforts to prevent influenza need to effectively target these regions in future pandemics.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<inist><standard h6="B"><pA><fA01 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>1473-3099</s0>
</fA01>
<fA03 i2="1"><s0>Lancet. Infect. dis. : (print)</s0>
</fA03>
<fA05><s2>12</s2>
</fA05>
<fA06><s2>9</s2>
</fA06>
<fA08 i1="01" i2="1" l="ENG"><s1>Estimated global mortality associated with the first 12 months of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus circulation: a modelling study</s1>
</fA08>
<fA11 i1="01" i2="1"><s1>DAWOOD (Fatimah S.)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="02" i2="1"><s1>DANIELLE LULIANO (A.)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="03" i2="1"><s1>REED (Carrie)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="04" i2="1"><s1>MELTZER (Martin I.)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="05" i2="1"><s1>SHAY (David K.)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="06" i2="1"><s1>CHENG (Po-Yung)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="07" i2="1"><s1>BANDARANAYAKE (Don)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="08" i2="1"><s1>BREIMAN (Robert F.)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="09" i2="1"><s1>ABDULLAH BROOKS (W.)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="10" i2="1"><s1>BUCHY (Philippe)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="11" i2="1"><s1>FEIKIN (Daniel R.)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="12" i2="1"><s1>FOWLER (Karen B.)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="13" i2="1"><s1>GORDON (Aubree)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="14" i2="1"><s1>TRAN HIEN (Nguyen)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="15" i2="1"><s1>HORBY (Peter)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="16" i2="1"><s1>SUE HUANG (Q.)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="17" i2="1"><s1>KATZ (Mark A.)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="18" i2="1"><s1>KRISHNAN (Anand)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="19" i2="1"><s1>LAL (Renu)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="20" i2="1"><s1>MONTGOMERY (Joel M.)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="21" i2="1"><s1>MØLBAK (Kåre)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="22" i2="1"><s1>PEBODY (Richard)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="23" i2="1"><s1>PRESANIS (Anne M.)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="24" i2="1"><s1>RAZURI (Hugo)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="25" i2="1"><s1>STEENS (Anneke)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="26" i2="1"><s1>TINOCO (Yeny O.)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="27" i2="1"><s1>WALLINGA (Jacco)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="28" i2="1"><s1>YU (Hongjie)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="29" i2="1"><s1>VONG (Sirenda)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="30" i2="1"><s1>BRESEE (Joseph)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="31" i2="1"><s1>WIDDOWSON (Marc-Alain)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA14 i1="01"><s1>Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</s1>
<s2>Atlanta, GA</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>2 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>3 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>5 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>6 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>10 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>19 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>26 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>31 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA14 i1="02"><s1>Scientific and Program Services Branch, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</s1>
<s2>Atlanta, GA</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>4 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA14 i1="03"><s1>National Centre for Biosecurity and Infectious Disease, Environmental Science and Research Institute</s1>
<s2>Upper Hutt</s2>
<s3>NZL</s3>
<sZ>7 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>16 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA14 i1="04"><s1>Glob al Disease Detection Division, Kenya Medical Research Institute/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</s1>
<s2>Nairobi</s2>
<s3>KEN</s3>
<sZ>8 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>11 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>17 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA14 i1="05"><s1>International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research</s1>
<s2>Dhaka</s2>
<s3>BGD</s3>
<sZ>9 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA14 i1="06"><s1>Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health</s1>
<s2>Baltimore, MD</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>9 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA14 i1="07"><s1>National Influenza Center</s1>
<s2>Phnom Penh, Cambodia</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>30 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA14 i1="08"><s1>University of Alabama</s1>
<s2>Birmingham, AL</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>12 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA14 i1="09"><s1>University of California</s1>
<s2>Berkeley, CA</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>13 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA14 i1="10"><s1>John E Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health</s1>
<s2>Bethesda, MD</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>13 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA14 i1="11"><s1>National Institute for Hygiene and Epidemiology</s1>
<s2>Hanoi</s2>
<s3>VNM</s3>
<sZ>14 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA14 i1="12"><s1>Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit</s1>
<s2>Hanoi</s2>
<s3>VNM</s3>
<sZ>15 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA14 i1="13"><s1>Centre for Community Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences</s1>
<s2>New Delhi</s2>
<s3>IND</s3>
<sZ>18 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA14 i1="14"><s1>Naval Medical Research Unit-6</s1>
<s2>Lima</s2>
<s3>PER</s3>
<sZ>20 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>24 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA14 i1="15"><s1>Department of Epidemiology, Statens Serum Institute</s1>
<s2>Copenhagen</s2>
<s3>DNK</s3>
<sZ>21 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA14 i1="16"><s1>Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit</s1>
<s2>Cambridge</s2>
<s3>GBR</s3>
<sZ>22 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>23 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA14 i1="17"><s1>Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment</s1>
<s2>Bilthoven</s2>
<s3>NLD</s3>
<sZ>25 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>27 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA14 i1="18"><s1>Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</s1>
<s2>Beijing</s2>
<s3>CHN</s3>
<sZ>28 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA14 i1="19"><s1>Institut Pasteur</s1>
<s2>Phnom Penh</s2>
<s3>KHM</s3>
<sZ>29 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA20><s1>687-695</s1>
</fA20>
<fA21><s1>2012</s1>
</fA21>
<fA23 i1="01"><s0>ENG</s0>
</fA23>
<fA43 i1="01"><s1>INIST</s1>
<s2>27478</s2>
<s5>354000504472350150</s5>
</fA43>
<fA44><s0>0000</s0>
<s1>© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.</s1>
</fA44>
<fA45><s0>54 ref.</s0>
</fA45>
<fA47 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>12-0366212</s0>
</fA47>
<fA60><s1>P</s1>
</fA60>
<fA61><s0>A</s0>
</fA61>
<fA64 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>Lancet. Infectious diseases : (print)</s0>
</fA64>
<fA66 i1="01"><s0>GBR</s0>
</fA66>
<fC01 i1="01" l="ENG"><s0>Background 18 500 laboratory-confirmed deaths caused by the 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 were reported worldwide for the period April, 2009, to August, 2010. This number is likely to be only a fraction of the true number of the deaths associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1. We aimed to estimate the global number of deaths during the first 12 months of virus circulation in each country. Methods We calculated crude respiratory mortality rates associated with the 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 strain by age (0-17 years, 18-64 years, and >64 years) using the cumulative (12 months) virus-associated symptomatic attack rates from 12 countries and symptomatic case fatality ratios (sCFR) from five high-income countries. To adjust crude mortality rates for differences between countries in risk of death from influenza, we developed a respiratory mortality multiplier equal to the ratio of the median lower respiratory tract infection mortality rate in each WHO region mortality stratum to the median in countries with very low mortality. We calculated cardiovascular disease mortality rates associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 infection with the ratio of excess deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases during the pandemic in five countries and multiplied these values by the crude respiratory disease mortality rate associated with the virus. Respiratory and cardiovascular mortality rates associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 were multiplied by age to calculate the number of associated deaths. Findings We estimate that globally there were 201200 respiratory deaths (range 105 700-395 600) with an additional 83300 cardiovascular deaths (46000-179900) associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1. 80% of the respiratory and cardiovascular deaths were in people younger than 65 years and 51% occurred in southeast Asia and Africa. Interpretation Our estimate of respiratory and cardiovascular mortality associated with the 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 was 15 times higher than reported laboratory-confirmed deaths. Although no estimates of sCFRs were available from Africa and southeast Asia, a disproportionate number of estimated pandemic deaths might have occurred in these regions. Therefore, efforts to prevent influenza need to effectively target these regions in future pandemics.</s0>
</fC01>
<fC02 i1="01" i2="X"><s0>002B05C02C</s0>
</fC02>
<fC03 i1="01" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Mortalité</s0>
<s5>07</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="01" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Mortality</s0>
<s5>07</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="01" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Mortalidad</s0>
<s5>07</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="02" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Modélisation</s0>
<s5>08</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="02" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Modeling</s0>
<s5>08</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="02" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Modelización</s0>
<s5>08</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Virus grippal A</s0>
<s2>NW</s2>
<s5>10</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Influenza A virus</s0>
<s2>NW</s2>
<s5>10</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Influenza A virus</s0>
<s2>NW</s2>
<s5>10</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Pronostic</s0>
<s5>30</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Prognosis</s0>
<s5>30</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Pronóstico</s0>
<s5>30</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="05" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Grippe H1N1</s0>
<s4>CD</s4>
<s5>96</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="05" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>H1N1 influenza</s0>
<s4>CD</s4>
<s5>96</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="05" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Gripe H1N1</s0>
<s4>CD</s4>
<s5>96</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Virus grippal A(H1N1)</s0>
<s4>CD</s4>
<s5>97</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Influenza A (H1N1)</s0>
<s4>CD</s4>
<s5>97</s5>
</fC03>
<fC07 i1="01" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Influenzavirus A</s0>
<s2>NW</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="01" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Influenzavirus A</s0>
<s2>NW</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="01" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Influenzavirus A</s0>
<s2>NW</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="02" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Orthomyxoviridae</s0>
<s2>NW</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="02" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Orthomyxoviridae</s0>
<s2>NW</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="02" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Orthomyxoviridae</s0>
<s2>NW</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="03" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Virus</s0>
<s2>NW</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="03" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Virus</s0>
<s2>NW</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="03" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Virus</s0>
<s2>NW</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="04" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Pathologie de l'appareil respiratoire</s0>
<s5>37</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="04" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Respiratory disease</s0>
<s5>37</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="04" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Aparato respiratorio patología</s0>
<s5>37</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="05" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Virose</s0>
<s5>38</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="05" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Viral disease</s0>
<s5>38</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="05" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Virosis</s0>
<s5>38</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="06" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Infection</s0>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="06" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Infection</s0>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="06" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Infección</s0>
</fC07>
<fN21><s1>282</s1>
</fN21>
<fN44 i1="01"><s1>OTO</s1>
</fN44>
<fN82><s1>OTO</s1>
</fN82>
</pA>
</standard>
</inist>
</record>
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