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Assessing the benefits of early pandemic influenza vaccine availability: a case study for Ontario, Canada

Identifieur interne : 001D87 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 001D86; suivant : 001D88

Assessing the benefits of early pandemic influenza vaccine availability: a case study for Ontario, Canada

Auteurs : David Champredon ; Marek Laskowski ; Nathalie Charland [Canada] ; Seyed M. Moghadas

Source :

RBID : PMC:5915538

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

New vaccine production technologies can significantly shorten the timelines for availability of a strain-specific vaccine in the event of an influenza pandemic. We sought to evaluate the potential benefits of early vaccination in reducing the clinical attack rate (CAR), taking into account the timing and speed of vaccination roll-out. Various scenarios corresponding to the transmissibility of a pandemic strain and vaccine prioritization strategies were simulated using an agent-based model of disease spread in Ontario, the largest Canadian province. We found that the relative reduction of the CAR reached 60% (90%CI: 44–100%) in a best-case scenario, in which the pandemic strain was moderately transmissible, vaccination started 4 weeks before the first imported case, the vaccine administration rate was 4 times higher than its average for seasonal influenza, and the vaccine efficacy was up to 90%. But the relative reductions in the CAR decreased significantly when the vaccination campaign was delayed or the administration rate reduced. In urban settings with similar characteristics to our population study, early availability and high rates of vaccine administration has the potential to substantially reduce the number of influenza cases. Low rates of vaccine administration or uptake can potentially offset the benefits of early vaccination.


Url:
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-24764-7
PubMed: 29691450
PubMed Central: 5915538

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PMC:5915538

Le document en format XML

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<title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Assessing the benefits of early pandemic influenza vaccine availability: a case study for Ontario, Canada</title>
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<name sortKey="Champredon, David" sort="Champredon, David" uniqKey="Champredon D" first="David" last="Champredon">David Champredon</name>
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<institution>York University,</institution>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Laskowski, Marek" sort="Laskowski, Marek" uniqKey="Laskowski M" first="Marek" last="Laskowski">Marek Laskowski</name>
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<institution>York University,</institution>
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<wicri:noCountry code="subfield">M3J 1P3 Ontario Canada</wicri:noCountry>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Charland, Nathalie" sort="Charland, Nathalie" uniqKey="Charland N" first="Nathalie" last="Charland">Nathalie Charland</name>
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<institution>Medicago Inc., 1020 Route de l’Eglise, Quebec,</institution>
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G1V 3V9 Quebec, Canada</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>G1V 3V9 Quebec</wicri:regionArea>
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</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Moghadas, Seyed M" sort="Moghadas, Seyed M" uniqKey="Moghadas S" first="Seyed M." last="Moghadas">Seyed M. Moghadas</name>
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<series>
<title level="j">Scientific Reports</title>
<idno type="eISSN">2045-2322</idno>
<imprint>
<date when="2018">2018</date>
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<p id="Par1">New vaccine production technologies can significantly shorten the timelines for availability of a strain-specific vaccine in the event of an influenza pandemic. We sought to evaluate the potential benefits of early vaccination in reducing the clinical attack rate (CAR), taking into account the timing and speed of vaccination roll-out. Various scenarios corresponding to the transmissibility of a pandemic strain and vaccine prioritization strategies were simulated using an agent-based model of disease spread in Ontario, the largest Canadian province. We found that the relative reduction of the CAR reached 60% (90%CI: 44–100%) in a best-case scenario, in which the pandemic strain was moderately transmissible, vaccination started 4 weeks before the first imported case, the vaccine administration rate was 4 times higher than its average for seasonal influenza, and the vaccine efficacy was up to 90%. But the relative reductions in the CAR decreased significantly when the vaccination campaign was delayed or the administration rate reduced. In urban settings with similar characteristics to our population study, early availability and high rates of vaccine administration has the potential to substantially reduce the number of influenza cases. Low rates of vaccine administration or uptake can potentially offset the benefits of early vaccination.</p>
</div>
</front>
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<name sortKey="Charland, Nathalie" sort="Charland, Nathalie" uniqKey="Charland N" first="Nathalie" last="Charland">Nathalie Charland</name>
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<name sortKey="Moghadas, Seyed M" sort="Moghadas, Seyed M" uniqKey="Moghadas S" first="Seyed M" last="Moghadas">Seyed M. Moghadas</name>
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<name sortKey="Moghadas, Seyed M" sort="Moghadas, Seyed M" uniqKey="Moghadas S" first="Seyed M" last="Moghadas">Seyed M. Moghadas</name>
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<term>Influenza Vaccines (immunology)</term>
<term>Influenza Vaccines (supply & distribution)</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term>
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<term>Vaccins antigrippaux (ressources et distribution)</term>
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<term>Influenza Vaccines</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" type="chemical" qualifier="immunology" xml:lang="en">
<term>Influenza Vaccines</term>
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<term>Vaccins antigrippaux</term>
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<term>Influenza, Human</term>
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<term>Vaccins antigrippaux</term>
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<term>Influenza Vaccines</term>
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<term>Humans</term>
<term>Vaccination</term>
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<term>Humains</term>
<term>Pandémies</term>
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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">New vaccine production technologies can significantly shorten the timelines for availability of a strain-specific vaccine in the event of an influenza pandemic. We sought to evaluate the potential benefits of early vaccination in reducing the clinical attack rate (CAR), taking into account the timing and speed of vaccination roll-out. Various scenarios corresponding to the transmissibility of a pandemic strain and vaccine prioritization strategies were simulated using an agent-based model of disease spread in Ontario, the largest Canadian province. We found that the relative reduction of the CAR reached 60% (90%CI: 44-100%) in a best-case scenario, in which the pandemic strain was moderately transmissible, vaccination started 4 weeks before the first imported case, the vaccine administration rate was 4 times higher than its average for seasonal influenza, and the vaccine efficacy was up to 90%. But the relative reductions in the CAR decreased significantly when the vaccination campaign was delayed or the administration rate reduced. In urban settings with similar characteristics to our population study, early availability and high rates of vaccine administration has the potential to substantially reduce the number of influenza cases. Low rates of vaccine administration or uptake can potentially offset the benefits of early vaccination.</div>
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