Assessing the benefits of early pandemic influenza vaccine availability: a case study for Ontario, Canada
Identifieur interne : 001D87 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 001D86; suivant : 001D88Assessing the benefits of early pandemic influenza vaccine availability: a case study for Ontario, Canada
Auteurs : David Champredon ; Marek Laskowski ; Nathalie Charland [Canada] ; Seyed M. MoghadasSource :
- Scientific Reports [ 2045-2322 ] ; 2018.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- administration et posologie : Vaccins antigrippaux.
- immunologie : Vaccins antigrippaux.
- ressources et distribution : Vaccins antigrippaux.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine, Ontario.
- Humains, Pandémies, Programmes de vaccination, Simulation numérique, Vaccination.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- chemical , administration & dosage : Influenza Vaccines.
- chemical , immunology : Influenza Vaccines.
- geographic , epidemiology : Ontario.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- methods : Immunization Programs.
- prevention & control : Pandemics.
- chemical , supply & distribution : Influenza Vaccines.
- Computer Simulation, Humans, Vaccination.
Abstract
New vaccine production technologies can significantly shorten the timelines for availability of a strain-specific vaccine in the event of an influenza pandemic. We sought to evaluate the potential benefits of early vaccination in reducing the clinical attack rate (CAR), taking into account the timing and speed of vaccination roll-out. Various scenarios corresponding to the transmissibility of a pandemic strain and vaccine prioritization strategies were simulated using an agent-based model of disease spread in Ontario, the largest Canadian province. We found that the relative reduction of the CAR reached 60% (90%CI: 44–100%) in a best-case scenario, in which the pandemic strain was moderately transmissible, vaccination started 4 weeks before the first imported case, the vaccine administration rate was 4 times higher than its average for seasonal influenza, and the vaccine efficacy was up to 90%. But the relative reductions in the CAR decreased significantly when the vaccination campaign was delayed or the administration rate reduced. In urban settings with similar characteristics to our population study, early availability and high rates of vaccine administration has the potential to substantially reduce the number of influenza cases. Low rates of vaccine administration or uptake can potentially offset the benefits of early vaccination.
Url:
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-24764-7
PubMed: 29691450
PubMed Central: 5915538
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PMC:5915538Le document en format XML
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p id="Par1">New vaccine production technologies can significantly shorten the timelines for availability of a strain-specific vaccine in the event of an influenza pandemic. We sought to evaluate the potential benefits of early vaccination in reducing the clinical attack rate (CAR), taking into account the timing and speed of vaccination roll-out. Various scenarios corresponding to the transmissibility of a pandemic strain and vaccine prioritization strategies were simulated using an agent-based model of disease spread in Ontario, the largest Canadian province. We found that the relative reduction of the CAR reached 60% (90%CI: 44–100%) in a best-case scenario, in which the pandemic strain was moderately transmissible, vaccination started 4 weeks before the first imported case, the vaccine administration rate was 4 times higher than its average for seasonal influenza, and the vaccine efficacy was up to 90%. But the relative reductions in the CAR decreased significantly when the vaccination campaign was delayed or the administration rate reduced. In urban settings with similar characteristics to our population study, early availability and high rates of vaccine administration has the potential to substantially reduce the number of influenza cases. Low rates of vaccine administration or uptake can potentially offset the benefits of early vaccination.</p>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
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<author><name sortKey="Moghadas, Seyed M" sort="Moghadas, Seyed M" uniqKey="Moghadas S" first="Seyed M." last="Moghadas">Seyed M. Moghadas</name>
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Assessing the benefits of early pandemic influenza vaccine availability: a case study for Ontario, Canada</title>
<author><name sortKey="Champredon, David" sort="Champredon, David" uniqKey="Champredon D" first="David" last="Champredon">David Champredon</name>
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<institution>Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory,</institution>
<institution>York University,</institution>
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Toronto, M3J 1P3 Ontario Canada</nlm:aff>
<wicri:noCountry code="subfield">M3J 1P3 Ontario Canada</wicri:noCountry>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Laskowski, Marek" sort="Laskowski, Marek" uniqKey="Laskowski M" first="Marek" last="Laskowski">Marek Laskowski</name>
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<institution>Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory,</institution>
<institution>York University,</institution>
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Toronto, M3J 1P3 Ontario Canada</nlm:aff>
<wicri:noCountry code="subfield">M3J 1P3 Ontario Canada</wicri:noCountry>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Charland, Nathalie" sort="Charland, Nathalie" uniqKey="Charland N" first="Nathalie" last="Charland">Nathalie Charland</name>
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<institution>Medicago Inc., 1020 Route de l’Eglise, Quebec,</institution>
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G1V 3V9 Quebec, Canada</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>G1V 3V9 Quebec</wicri:regionArea>
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</author>
<author><name sortKey="Moghadas, Seyed M" sort="Moghadas, Seyed M" uniqKey="Moghadas S" first="Seyed M." last="Moghadas">Seyed M. Moghadas</name>
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<institution>Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory,</institution>
<institution>York University,</institution>
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Toronto, M3J 1P3 Ontario Canada</nlm:aff>
<wicri:noCountry code="subfield">M3J 1P3 Ontario Canada</wicri:noCountry>
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<series><title level="j">Scientific Reports</title>
<idno type="eISSN">2045-2322</idno>
<imprint><date when="2018">2018</date>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p id="Par1">New vaccine production technologies can significantly shorten the timelines for availability of a strain-specific vaccine in the event of an influenza pandemic. We sought to evaluate the potential benefits of early vaccination in reducing the clinical attack rate (CAR), taking into account the timing and speed of vaccination roll-out. Various scenarios corresponding to the transmissibility of a pandemic strain and vaccine prioritization strategies were simulated using an agent-based model of disease spread in Ontario, the largest Canadian province. We found that the relative reduction of the CAR reached 60% (90%CI: 44–100%) in a best-case scenario, in which the pandemic strain was moderately transmissible, vaccination started 4 weeks before the first imported case, the vaccine administration rate was 4 times higher than its average for seasonal influenza, and the vaccine efficacy was up to 90%. But the relative reductions in the CAR decreased significantly when the vaccination campaign was delayed or the administration rate reduced. In urban settings with similar characteristics to our population study, early availability and high rates of vaccine administration has the potential to substantially reduce the number of influenza cases. Low rates of vaccine administration or uptake can potentially offset the benefits of early vaccination.</p>
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<pubmed><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Assessing the benefits of early pandemic influenza vaccine availability: a case study for Ontario, Canada.</title>
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<author><name sortKey="Laskowski, Marek" sort="Laskowski, Marek" uniqKey="Laskowski M" first="Marek" last="Laskowski">Marek Laskowski</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, Ontario</wicri:regionArea>
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<author><name sortKey="Charland, Nathalie" sort="Charland, Nathalie" uniqKey="Charland N" first="Nathalie" last="Charland">Nathalie Charland</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Medicago Inc., 1020 Route de l'Eglise, Quebec, G1V 3V9, Quebec</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Quebec</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Moghadas, Seyed M" sort="Moghadas, Seyed M" uniqKey="Moghadas S" first="Seyed M" last="Moghadas">Seyed M. Moghadas</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, Ontario</wicri:regionArea>
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<author><name sortKey="Champredon, David" sort="Champredon, David" uniqKey="Champredon D" first="David" last="Champredon">David Champredon</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Laskowski, Marek" sort="Laskowski, Marek" uniqKey="Laskowski M" first="Marek" last="Laskowski">Marek Laskowski</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Charland, Nathalie" sort="Charland, Nathalie" uniqKey="Charland N" first="Nathalie" last="Charland">Nathalie Charland</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Moghadas, Seyed M" sort="Moghadas, Seyed M" uniqKey="Moghadas S" first="Seyed M" last="Moghadas">Seyed M. Moghadas</name>
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<term>Influenza Vaccines (immunology)</term>
<term>Influenza Vaccines (supply & distribution)</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">New vaccine production technologies can significantly shorten the timelines for availability of a strain-specific vaccine in the event of an influenza pandemic. We sought to evaluate the potential benefits of early vaccination in reducing the clinical attack rate (CAR), taking into account the timing and speed of vaccination roll-out. Various scenarios corresponding to the transmissibility of a pandemic strain and vaccine prioritization strategies were simulated using an agent-based model of disease spread in Ontario, the largest Canadian province. We found that the relative reduction of the CAR reached 60% (90%CI: 44-100%) in a best-case scenario, in which the pandemic strain was moderately transmissible, vaccination started 4 weeks before the first imported case, the vaccine administration rate was 4 times higher than its average for seasonal influenza, and the vaccine efficacy was up to 90%. But the relative reductions in the CAR decreased significantly when the vaccination campaign was delayed or the administration rate reduced. In urban settings with similar characteristics to our population study, early availability and high rates of vaccine administration has the potential to substantially reduce the number of influenza cases. Low rates of vaccine administration or uptake can potentially offset the benefits of early vaccination.</div>
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