Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States
Identifieur interne : 000665 ( Ncbi/Curation ); précédent : 000664; suivant : 000666Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States
Auteurs : M. Elizabeth Halloran [États-Unis] ; Neil M. Ferguson [Royaume-Uni] ; Stephen Eubank [États-Unis] ; Ira M. Longini [États-Unis] ; Derek A. T. Cummings [Royaume-Uni] ; Bryan Lewis [États-Unis] ; Shufu Xu [États-Unis] ; Christophe Fraser [Royaume-Uni] ; Anil Vullikanti [États-Unis] ; Timothy C. Germann [États-Unis] ; Diane Wagener [États-Unis] ; Richard Beckman [États-Unis] ; Kai Kadau [États-Unis] ; Chris Barrett [États-Unis] ; Catherine A. Macken [États-Unis] ; Donald S. Burke [États-Unis] ; Philip Cooley [États-Unis]Source :
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [ 0027-8424 ] ; 2008.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- Wicri :
- geographic : États-Unis.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic : Chicago, United States.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- prevention & control : Disease Outbreaks, Influenza, Human.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Computer Simulation, Cooperative Behavior, Humans, Models, Biological, Patient Isolation.
Abstract
Planning a response to an outbreak of a pandemic strain of influenza is a high public health priority. Three research groups using different individual-based, stochastic simulation models have examined the consequences of intervention strategies chosen in consultation with U.S. public health workers. The first goal is to simulate the effectiveness of a set of potentially feasible intervention strategies. Combinations called targeted layered containment (TLC) of influenza antiviral treatment and prophylaxis and nonpharmaceutical interventions of quarantine, isolation, school closure, community social distancing, and workplace social distancing are considered. The second goal is to examine the robustness of the results to model assumptions. The comparisons focus on a pandemic outbreak in a population similar to that of Chicago, with ≈8.6 million people. The simulations suggest that at the expected transmissibility of a pandemic strain, timely implementation of a combination of targeted household antiviral prophylaxis, and social distancing measures could substantially lower the illness attack rate before a highly efficacious vaccine could become available. Timely initiation of measures and school closure play important roles. Because of the current lack of data on which to base such models, further field research is recommended to learn more about the sources of transmission and the effectiveness of social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission.
Url:
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0706849105
PubMed: 18332436
PubMed Central: 2290797
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Elizabeth" last="Halloran">M. Elizabeth Halloran</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff6">*Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195; and</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>*Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle</wicri:cityArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff7">Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Neil M" sort="Ferguson, Neil M" uniqKey="Ferguson N" first="Neil M." last="Ferguson">Neil M. Ferguson</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff4">Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London W21PG, England;</nlm:aff><country>Royaume-Uni</country><placeName><region type="country">Angleterre</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London W21PG</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Eubank, Stephen" sort="Eubank, Stephen" uniqKey="Eubank S" first="Stephen" last="Eubank">Stephen Eubank</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Polytechnical Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Virginie</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Polytechnical Institute and State University, Blacksburg</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Longini, Ira M" sort="Longini, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini I" first="Ira M." last="Longini">Ira M. Longini</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff6">*Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195; and</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>*Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle</wicri:cityArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff7">Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cummings, Derek A T" sort="Cummings, Derek A T" uniqKey="Cummings D" first="Derek A. T." last="Cummings">Derek A. T. Cummings</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff4">Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London W21PG, England;</nlm:aff><country>Royaume-Uni</country><placeName><region type="country">Angleterre</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London W21PG</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lewis, Bryan" sort="Lewis, Bryan" uniqKey="Lewis B" first="Bryan" last="Lewis">Bryan Lewis</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Polytechnical Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Virginie</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Polytechnical Institute and State University, Blacksburg</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Shufu" sort="Xu, Shufu" uniqKey="Xu S" first="Shufu" last="Xu">Shufu Xu</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff7">Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, Christophe" sort="Fraser, Christophe" uniqKey="Fraser C" first="Christophe" last="Fraser">Christophe Fraser</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff4">Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London W21PG, England;</nlm:aff><country>Royaume-Uni</country><placeName><region type="country">Angleterre</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London W21PG</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vullikanti, Anil" sort="Vullikanti, Anil" uniqKey="Vullikanti A" first="Anil" last="Vullikanti">Anil Vullikanti</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Polytechnical Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Virginie</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Polytechnical Institute and State University, Blacksburg</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Germann, Timothy C" sort="Germann, Timothy C" uniqKey="Germann T" first="Timothy C." last="Germann">Timothy C. Germann</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff5">Los Alamos National Laboratories, Los Alamos, NM 87545;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Nouveau-Mexique</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Los Alamos National Laboratories, Los Alamos</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wagener, Diane" sort="Wagener, Diane" uniqKey="Wagener D" first="Diane" last="Wagener">Diane Wagener</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff3">**Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Caroline du Nord</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>**Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Beckman, Richard" sort="Beckman, Richard" uniqKey="Beckman R" first="Richard" last="Beckman">Richard Beckman</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Polytechnical Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Virginie</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Polytechnical Institute and State University, Blacksburg</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kadau, Kai" sort="Kadau, Kai" uniqKey="Kadau K" first="Kai" last="Kadau">Kai Kadau</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff5">Los Alamos National Laboratories, Los Alamos, NM 87545;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Nouveau-Mexique</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Los Alamos National Laboratories, Los Alamos</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Barrett, Chris" sort="Barrett, Chris" uniqKey="Barrett C" first="Chris" last="Barrett">Chris Barrett</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Polytechnical Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Virginie</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Polytechnical Institute and State University, Blacksburg</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Macken, Catherine A" sort="Macken, Catherine A" uniqKey="Macken C" first="Catherine A." last="Macken">Catherine A. Macken</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff5">Los Alamos National Laboratories, Los Alamos, NM 87545;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Nouveau-Mexique</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Los Alamos National Laboratories, Los Alamos</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Burke, Donald S" sort="Burke, Donald S" uniqKey="Burke D" first="Donald S." last="Burke">Donald S. Burke</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15261;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Pennsylvanie</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cooley, Philip" sort="Cooley, Philip" uniqKey="Cooley P" first="Philip" last="Cooley">Philip Cooley</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff3">**Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Caroline du Nord</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>**Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</title><idno type="ISSN">0027-8424</idno><idno type="eISSN">1091-6490</idno><imprint><date when="2008">2008</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Chicago</term><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Cooperative Behavior</term><term>Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control)</term><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (prevention & control)</term><term>Influenza, Human (transmission)</term><term>Models, Biological</term><term>Patient Isolation</term><term>United States</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Chicago</term><term>Comportement coopératif</term><term>Flambées de maladies ()</term><term>Grippe humaine ()</term><term>Grippe humaine (transmission)</term><term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Humains</term><term>Isolement du patient</term><term>Modèles biologiques</term><term>Simulation numérique</term><term>États-Unis d'Amérique</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" xml:lang="en"><term>Chicago</term><term>United States</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Cooperative Behavior</term><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Biological</term><term>Patient Isolation</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Chicago</term><term>Comportement coopératif</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Humains</term><term>Isolement du patient</term><term>Modèles biologiques</term><term>Simulation numérique</term><term>États-Unis d'Amérique</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>États-Unis</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Planning a response to an outbreak of a pandemic strain of influenza is a high public health priority. Three research groups using different individual-based, stochastic simulation models have examined the consequences of intervention strategies chosen in consultation with U.S. public health workers. The first goal is to simulate the effectiveness of a set of potentially feasible intervention strategies. Combinations called targeted layered containment (TLC) of influenza antiviral treatment and prophylaxis and nonpharmaceutical interventions of quarantine, isolation, school closure, community social distancing, and workplace social distancing are considered. The second goal is to examine the robustness of the results to model assumptions. The comparisons focus on a pandemic outbreak in a population similar to that of Chicago, with ≈8.6 million people. The simulations suggest that at the expected transmissibility of a pandemic strain, timely implementation of a combination of targeted household antiviral prophylaxis, and social distancing measures could substantially lower the illness attack rate before a highly efficacious vaccine could become available. Timely initiation of measures and school closure play important roles. Because of the current lack of data on which to base such models, further field research is recommended to learn more about the sources of transmission and the effectiveness of social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission.</p></div></front></TEI></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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