Strategies for containing a global influenza pandemic.
Identifieur interne : 000358 ( Ncbi/Curation ); précédent : 000357; suivant : 000359Strategies for containing a global influenza pandemic.
Auteurs : Antoine Flahault [France] ; Elisabeta Vergu ; Laurent Coudeville ; Rebecca F. GraisSource :
- Vaccine [ 0264-410X ] ; 2006.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- usage thérapeutique : Antiviraux, Grippe humaine.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine.
- Contrôle des maladies contagieuses, Flambées de maladies, Humains, Modèles théoriques, Simulation numérique, Voyage.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- chemical , therapeutic use : Antiviral Agents.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- methods : Communicable Disease Control.
- prevention & control : Disease Outbreaks.
- statistics & numerical data : Travel.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Computer Simulation, Humans, Models, Theoretical.
Abstract
Mathematical modelling provides useful insight into the geographic and temporal spread of pandemic influenza. It has been recently used to assess the ability to stop a pandemic at a very early stage. Here, we model the global diffusion of pandemic influenza and the impact of available preventive and control measures. We refined a published SEIR deterministic model of disease dynamics within 52 cities interconnected via air transport to simulate the impact of five interventions in a variety of scenarios: vaccination, case isolation, therapeutic and prophylactic antiviral treatment, and air traffic reduction. The impact of these measures was assessed on the spread of a potential pandemic strain profile, with an average attack-rate of 26%, a case-fatality rate of 2.5% and a residual immunity of 25%. Our analysis highlighted the importance of: (1) a global perspective for dealing with pandemic risks; (2) the time factor and, hence, the importance of surveillance systems; (3) the complementary role of available control measures. Results provide general guidance for the issues of concern to public-health decision-makers: when to set up interventions, where, and at which administrative levels.
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.079
PubMed: 16843574
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It has been recently used to assess the ability to stop a pandemic at a very early stage. Here, we model the global diffusion of pandemic influenza and the impact of available preventive and control measures. We refined a published SEIR deterministic model of disease dynamics within 52 cities interconnected via air transport to simulate the impact of five interventions in a variety of scenarios: vaccination, case isolation, therapeutic and prophylactic antiviral treatment, and air traffic reduction. The impact of these measures was assessed on the spread of a potential pandemic strain profile, with an average attack-rate of 26%, a case-fatality rate of 2.5% and a residual immunity of 25%. Our analysis highlighted the importance of: (1) a global perspective for dealing with pandemic risks; (2) the time factor and, hence, the importance of surveillance systems; (3) the complementary role of available control measures. Results provide general guidance for the issues of concern to public-health decision-makers: when to set up interventions, where, and at which administrative levels.</div></front></TEI></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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