The emerging influenza pandemic: estimating the case fatality ratio.
Identifieur interne : 003E52 ( Main/Merge ); précédent : 003E51; suivant : 003E53The emerging influenza pandemic: estimating the case fatality ratio.
Auteurs : N. Wilson [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; M G BakerSource :
- Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin [ 1560-7917 ] ; 2009.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- methods : Risk Assessment.
- mortality : Communicable Diseases, Emerging, Influenza, Human.
- statistics & numerical data : Disease Outbreaks.
- Humans, Incidence, Mortality, Population Surveillance, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Factors, Survival Analysis, Survival Rate.
Abstract
To determine appropriate influenza pandemic containment and mitigation measures, health authorities need to know the approximate case fatality ratio (CFR) for this new infection. We present four different methods for very provisionally estimating the plausible range of the CFR for symptomatic infection by this pandemic strain in developed countries. All of the methods produce substantially lower values (range 0.06% to 0.0004%) than a previously published estimate for Mexico (0.4%). As these results have many limitations, improved surveillance and serological surveys are needed in both developed and developing countries to produce more accurate estimates.
PubMed: 19573509
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Wilson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand. nick.wilson@otago.ac.nz</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Nouvelle-Zélande</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Wellington</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Baker, M G" sort="Baker, M G" uniqKey="Baker M" first="M G" last="Baker">M G Baker</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2009">2009</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:19573509</idno><idno type="pmid">19573509</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">001716</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">001716</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">001716</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">001716</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">001448</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">001448</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000926</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000926</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">000926</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">003E52</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">The emerging influenza pandemic: estimating the case fatality ratio.</title><author><name sortKey="Wilson, N" sort="Wilson, N" uniqKey="Wilson N" first="N" last="Wilson">N. Wilson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand. nick.wilson@otago.ac.nz</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Nouvelle-Zélande</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Wellington</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Baker, M G" sort="Baker, M G" uniqKey="Baker M" first="M G" last="Baker">M G Baker</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin</title><idno type="eISSN">1560-7917</idno><imprint><date when="2009" type="published">2009</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Communicable Diseases, Emerging (mortality)</term><term>Disease Outbreaks (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Humans</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Influenza, Human (mortality)</term><term>Mortality</term><term>Population Surveillance</term><term>Proportional Hazards Models</term><term>Risk Assessment (methods)</term><term>Risk Factors</term><term>Survival Analysis</term><term>Survival Rate</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Analyse de survie</term><term>Facteurs de risque</term><term>Flambées de maladies ()</term><term>Grippe humaine (mortalité)</term><term>Humains</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Maladies transmissibles émergentes (mortalité)</term><term>Modèles de hasards proportionnels</term><term>Mortalité</term><term>Surveillance de la population</term><term>Taux de survie</term><term>Évaluation des risques ()</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="methods" xml:lang="en"><term>Risk Assessment</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Communicable Diseases, Emerging</term><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortalité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Maladies transmissibles émergentes</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Outbreaks</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Humans</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Mortality</term><term>Population Surveillance</term><term>Proportional Hazards Models</term><term>Risk Factors</term><term>Survival Analysis</term><term>Survival Rate</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Analyse de survie</term><term>Facteurs de risque</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Humains</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Modèles de hasards proportionnels</term><term>Mortalité</term><term>Surveillance de la population</term><term>Taux de survie</term><term>Évaluation des risques</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">To determine appropriate influenza pandemic containment and mitigation measures, health authorities need to know the approximate case fatality ratio (CFR) for this new infection. We present four different methods for very provisionally estimating the plausible range of the CFR for symptomatic infection by this pandemic strain in developed countries. All of the methods produce substantially lower values (range 0.06% to 0.0004%) than a previously published estimate for Mexico (0.4%). As these results have many limitations, improved surveillance and serological surveys are needed in both developed and developing countries to produce more accurate estimates.</div></front></TEI></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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