Planning for the next influenza H1N1 season: a modelling study.
Identifieur interne : 003155 ( Main/Merge ); précédent : 003154; suivant : 003156Planning for the next influenza H1N1 season: a modelling study.
Auteurs : Fabrice Carrat [France] ; Camille Pelat [France] ; Daniel Levy-Bruhl [France] ; Isabelle Bonmarin [France] ; Nathanael Lapidus [France]Source :
- BMC Infectious Diseases [ 1471-2334 ] ; 2010.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The level of herd immunity before and after the first 2009 pandemic season is not precisely known, and predicting the shape of the next pandemic H1N1 season is a difficult challenge. METHODS: This was a modelling study based on data on medical visits for influenza-like illness collected by the French General Practitioner Sentinel network, as well as pandemic H1N1 vaccination coverage rates, and an individual-centred model devoted to influenza. We estimated infection attack rates during the first 2009 pandemic H1N1 season in France, and the rates of pre- and post-exposure immunity. We then simulated various scenarios in which a pandemic influenza H1N1 virus would be reintroduced into a population with varying levels of protective cross-immunity, and considered the impact of extending influenza vaccination. RESULTS: During the first pandemic season in France, the proportion of infected persons was 18.1% overall, 38.3% among children, 14.8% among younger adults and 1.6% among the elderly. The rates of pre-exposure immunity required to fit data collected during the first pandemic season were 36% in younger adults and 85% in the elderly. We estimated that the rate of post-exposure immunity was 57.3% (95% Confidence Interval (95%CI) 49.6%-65.0%) overall, 44.6% (95%CI 35.5%-53.6%) in children, 53.8% (95%CI 44.5%-63.1%) in younger adults, and 87.4% (95%CI 82.0%-92.8%) in the elderly.The shape of a second season would depend on the degree of persistent protective cross-immunity to descendants of the 2009 H1N1 viruses. A cross-protection rate of 70% would imply that only a small proportion of the population would be affected. With a cross-protection rate of 50%, the second season would have a disease burden similar to the first, while vaccination of 50% of the entire population, in addition to the population vaccinated during the first pandemic season, would halve this burden. With a cross-protection rate of 30%, the second season could be more substantial, and vaccination would not provide a significant benefit. CONCLUSIONS: These model-based findings should help to prepare for a second pandemic season, and highlight the need for studies of the different components of immune protection.
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DOI: 10.1186/1471-2334-10-301
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Paris 6</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">UPMC</orgName> <date type="end">2017-12-31</date> <desc> <address> <addrLine>4 place Jussieu - 75005 Paris</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.upmc.fr/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle><tutelle name="U707" active="#struct-303623" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-303623" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">026388278</idno> <orgName>Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">INSERM</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>101, rue de Tolbiac, 75013 Paris </addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.inserm.fr</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>France</country></affiliation></author></analytic><idno type="DOI">10.1186/1471-2334-10-301</idno><series><title level="j">BMC Infectious Diseases</title><idno type="ISSN">1471-2334</idno><imprint><date type="datePub">2010</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"> <p>BACKGROUND: The level of herd immunity before and after the first 2009 pandemic season is not precisely known, and predicting the shape of the next pandemic H1N1 season is a difficult challenge. METHODS: This was a modelling study based on data on medical visits for influenza-like illness collected by the French General Practitioner Sentinel network, as well as pandemic H1N1 vaccination coverage rates, and an individual-centred model devoted to influenza. We estimated infection attack rates during the first 2009 pandemic H1N1 season in France, and the rates of pre- and post-exposure immunity. We then simulated various scenarios in which a pandemic influenza H1N1 virus would be reintroduced into a population with varying levels of protective cross-immunity, and considered the impact of extending influenza vaccination. RESULTS: During the first pandemic season in France, the proportion of infected persons was 18.1% overall, 38.3% among children, 14.8% among younger adults and 1.6% among the elderly. The rates of pre-exposure immunity required to fit data collected during the first pandemic season were 36% in younger adults and 85% in the elderly. We estimated that the rate of post-exposure immunity was 57.3% (95% Confidence Interval (95%CI) 49.6%-65.0%) overall, 44.6% (95%CI 35.5%-53.6%) in children, 53.8% (95%CI 44.5%-63.1%) in younger adults, and 87.4% (95%CI 82.0%-92.8%) in the elderly.The shape of a second season would depend on the degree of persistent protective cross-immunity to descendants of the 2009 H1N1 viruses. A cross-protection rate of 70% would imply that only a small proportion of the population would be affected. With a cross-protection rate of 50%, the second season would have a disease burden similar to the first, while vaccination of 50% of the entire population, in addition to the population vaccinated during the first pandemic season, would halve this burden. With a cross-protection rate of 30%, the second season could be more substantial, and vaccination would not provide a significant benefit. CONCLUSIONS: These model-based findings should help to prepare for a second pandemic season, and highlight the need for studies of the different components of immune protection.</p> </div></front></TEI></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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