Deriving effective vaccine allocation strategies for pandemic influenza: Comparison of an agent-based simulation and a compartmental model
Identifieur interne : 000726 ( Main/Merge ); précédent : 000725; suivant : 000727Deriving effective vaccine allocation strategies for pandemic influenza: Comparison of an agent-based simulation and a compartmental model
Auteurs : Özden O. Dalg Ç [Canada] ; Osman Y. Özalt N [États-Unis] ; William A. Ciccotelli [Canada] ; Fatih S. Erenay [Canada]Source :
- PLoS ONE [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2017.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Allocation des ressources, Analyse des systèmes, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Facteurs de l'âge, Facteurs temps, Grippe humaine (), Grippe humaine (transmission), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Humains, Jeune adulte, Modèles théoriques, Nourrisson, Pandémies (), Population urbaine, Risque, Simulation numérique, Sujet âgé, Transmission de maladie infectieuse (), Vaccins antigrippaux (ressources et distribution), Washington.
- MESH :
- ressources et distribution : Vaccins antigrippaux.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Allocation des ressources, Analyse des systèmes, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Facteurs de l'âge, Facteurs temps, Grippe humaine, Humains, Jeune adulte, Modèles théoriques, Nourrisson, Pandémies, Population urbaine, Risque, Simulation numérique, Sujet âgé, Transmission de maladie infectieuse, Washington.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Child, Child, Preschool, Computer Simulation, Disease Transmission, Infectious (statistics & numerical data), Humans, Infant, Influenza Vaccines (supply & distribution), Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (prevention & control), Influenza, Human (transmission), Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Pandemics (prevention & control), Resource Allocation, Risk, Systems Analysis, Time Factors, Urban Population, Washington, Young Adult.
- MESH :
- chemical , supply & distribution : Influenza Vaccines.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- prevention & control : Influenza, Human, Pandemics.
- statistics & numerical data : Disease Transmission, Infectious.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Child, Child, Preschool, Computer Simulation, Humans, Infant, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Resource Allocation, Risk, Systems Analysis, Time Factors, Urban Population, Washington, Young Adult.
Abstract
Individuals are prioritized based on their risk profiles when allocating limited vaccine stocks during an influenza pandemic. Computationally expensive but realistic agent-based simulations and fast but stylized compartmental models are typically used to derive effective vaccine allocation strategies. A detailed comparison of these two approaches, however, is often omitted. We derive age-specific vaccine allocation strategies to mitigate a pandemic influenza outbreak in Seattle by applying derivative-free optimization to an agent-based simulation and also to a compartmental model. We compare the strategies derived by these two approaches under various infection aggressiveness and vaccine coverage scenarios. We observe that both approaches primarily vaccinate school children, however they may allocate the remaining vaccines in different ways. The vaccine allocation strategies derived by using the agent-based simulation are associated with up to 70% decrease in total cost and 34% reduction in the number of infections compared to the strategies derived by using the compartmental model. Nevertheless, the latter approach may still be competitive for very low and/or very high infection aggressiveness. Our results provide insights about potential differences between the vaccine allocation strategies derived by using agent-based simulations and those derived by using compartmental models.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0172261
PubMed: 28222123
PubMed Central: 5319753
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PMC:5319753Le document en format XML
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Individuals are prioritized based on their risk profiles when allocating limited vaccine stocks during an influenza pandemic. Computationally expensive but realistic agent-based simulations and fast but stylized compartmental models are typically used to derive effective vaccine allocation strategies. A detailed comparison of these two approaches, however, is often omitted. We derive age-specific vaccine allocation strategies to mitigate a pandemic influenza outbreak in Seattle by applying derivative-free optimization to an agent-based simulation and also to a compartmental model. We compare the strategies derived by these two approaches under various infection aggressiveness and vaccine coverage scenarios. We observe that both approaches primarily vaccinate school children, however they may allocate the remaining vaccines in different ways. The vaccine allocation strategies derived by using the agent-based simulation are associated with up to 70% decrease in total cost and 34% reduction in the number of infections compared to the strategies derived by using the compartmental model. Nevertheless, the latter approach may still be competitive for very low and/or very high infection aggressiveness. Our results provide insights about potential differences between the vaccine allocation strategies derived by using agent-based simulations and those derived by using compartmental models.</p>
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