Dynamic versus static models in cost‐effectiveness analyses of anti‐viral drug therapy to mitigate an influenza pandemic
Identifieur interne : 003555 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 003554; suivant : 003556Dynamic versus static models in cost‐effectiveness analyses of anti‐viral drug therapy to mitigate an influenza pandemic
Auteurs : Anna K. Lugnér [Pays-Bas] ; Sido D. Mylius [Pays-Bas] ; Jacco Wallinga [Pays-Bas]Source :
- Health Economics [ 1057-9230 ] ; 2010-05.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Analyse coût-bénéfice, Antiviraux (usage thérapeutique), Antiviraux (économie), Arbres de décision, Flambées de maladies (), Flambées de maladies (économie), Grippe humaine (traitement médicamenteux), Grippe humaine (transmission), Grippe humaine (économie), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Humains, Modèles économétriques, Oséltamivir (usage thérapeutique), Oséltamivir (économie), Pays-Bas (épidémiologie), Transmission de maladie infectieuse ().
- MESH :
- traitement médicamenteux : Grippe humaine.
- usage thérapeutique : Antiviraux, Grippe humaine, Oséltamivir.
- économie : Antiviraux, Flambées de maladies, Grippe humaine, Oséltamivir.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine, Pays-Bas.
- Analyse coût-bénéfice, Arbres de décision, Flambées de maladies, Humains, Modèles économétriques, Transmission de maladie infectieuse.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Pays-Bas.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Antiviral Agents (economics), Antiviral Agents (therapeutic use), Cost-Benefit Analysis, Decision Trees, Disease Outbreaks (economics), Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control), Disease Transmission, Infectious (prevention & control), Humans, Influenza, Human (drug therapy), Influenza, Human (economics), Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (transmission), Models, Econometric, Netherlands (epidemiology), Oseltamivir (economics), Oseltamivir (therapeutic use).
- MESH :
- chemical , economics : Antiviral Agents, Oseltamivir.
- chemical , therapeutic use : Antiviral Agents, Oseltamivir.
- geographic , epidemiology : Netherlands.
- drug therapy : Influenza, Human.
- economics : Disease Outbreaks, Influenza, Human.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- prevention & control : Disease Outbreaks, Disease Transmission, Infectious.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Teeft :
- Antibiotics hospitalization, Antiviral, Antiviral drugs, Attack rate, Attack rates, Average time, Base case, Beutels, Clinical attack rates, Complications antibiotics, Consecutive stage, Copyright, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Costeffectiveness ratio, Decision Trees, Different assumptions, Different models, Different sources, Disease exposure, Duintjer tebbens, Dutch guidelines, Dynamic model, Dynamic modeling, Dynamic models, Econ, Economic evaluation, Edmunds, Epidemic size, Friction cost method, Friction period, Future pandemic, Generation interval, Health council, Health econ, Health economics, Health effects, Herd immunity, High value, Humans, Important role, Indirect effects, Infection attack rate, Infection attack rates, Infectious diseases, Infectious individuals, Infectious period, Infectious periods, Initial proportion, John wiley sons, Large uncertainty, Life years, Lipsitch, Lugner, Markov models, Measles eradication, Medical decision, Model approaches, Model choice, Model equations, Modeling, Modeling approaches, Models, Econometric, National experts, National institute, Netherlands, Oostenbrink, Outpatient utilization, Pandemic, Pandemic planning, Pandemic preparedness, Pandemic vaccine, Pandemic virus, Pandemic wave, Pharmacoeconomic research, Pharmacoeconomics, Postma, Production losses, Production value, Productivity elasticity, Productivity loss, Public health, Reproductive number, Risk groups, Scenario, Sensitivity analyses, Static, Static model, Static models, Statistics netherlands, Susceptible individuals, Therapeutic treatment, Total population, Uncontrolled pandemic, Unit costs, Vaccination, Vaccination programmes, Vaccination programs, Vaccine, Viral transmission, Wallinga, Whole population.
Abstract
Conventional (static) models used in health economics implicitly assume that the probability of disease exposure is constant over time and unaffected by interventions. For transmissible infectious diseases this is not realistic and another class of models is required, so‐called dynamic models. This study aims to examine the differences between one dynamic and one static model, estimating the effects of therapeutic treatment with antiviral (AV) drugs during an influenza pandemic in the Netherlands. Specifically, we focus on the sensitivity of the cost‐effectiveness ratios to model choice, to the assumed drug coverage, and to the value of several epidemiological factors. Therapeutic use of AV‐drugs is cost‐effective compared with non‐intervention, irrespective of which model approach is chosen. The findings further show that: (1) the cost‐effectiveness ratio according to the static model is insensitive to the size of a pandemic, whereas the ratio according to the dynamic model increases with the size of a pandemic; (2) according to the dynamic model, the cost per infection and the life‐years gained per treatment are not constant but depend on the proportion of cases that are treated; and (3) the age‐specific clinical attack rates affect the sensitivity of cost‐effectiveness ratio to model choice. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Url:
DOI: 10.1002/hec.1485
Affiliations:
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Le document en format XML
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<term>Antiviral Agents (therapeutic use)</term>
<term>Cost-Benefit Analysis</term>
<term>Decision Trees</term>
<term>Disease Outbreaks (economics)</term>
<term>Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control)</term>
<term>Disease Transmission, Infectious (prevention & control)</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (drug therapy)</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (economics)</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (transmission)</term>
<term>Models, Econometric</term>
<term>Netherlands (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Oseltamivir (economics)</term>
<term>Oseltamivir (therapeutic use)</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Analyse coût-bénéfice</term>
<term>Antiviraux (usage thérapeutique)</term>
<term>Antiviraux (économie)</term>
<term>Arbres de décision</term>
<term>Flambées de maladies ()</term>
<term>Flambées de maladies (économie)</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (traitement médicamenteux)</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (transmission)</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (économie)</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Modèles économétriques</term>
<term>Oséltamivir (usage thérapeutique)</term>
<term>Oséltamivir (économie)</term>
<term>Pays-Bas (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Transmission de maladie infectieuse ()</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" type="chemical" qualifier="economics" xml:lang="en"><term>Antiviral Agents</term>
<term>Oseltamivir</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" type="chemical" qualifier="therapeutic use" xml:lang="en"><term>Antiviral Agents</term>
<term>Oseltamivir</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Netherlands</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="drug therapy" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="economics" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Outbreaks</term>
<term>Influenza, Human</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term>
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<term>Disease Transmission, Infectious</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="traitement médicamenteux" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="usage thérapeutique" xml:lang="fr"><term>Antiviraux</term>
<term>Grippe humaine</term>
<term>Oséltamivir</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="économie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Antiviraux</term>
<term>Flambées de maladies</term>
<term>Grippe humaine</term>
<term>Oséltamivir</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term>
<term>Pays-Bas</term>
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<keywords scheme="Teeft" xml:lang="en"><term>Antibiotics hospitalization</term>
<term>Antiviral</term>
<term>Antiviral drugs</term>
<term>Attack rate</term>
<term>Attack rates</term>
<term>Average time</term>
<term>Base case</term>
<term>Beutels</term>
<term>Clinical attack rates</term>
<term>Complications antibiotics</term>
<term>Consecutive stage</term>
<term>Copyright</term>
<term>Cost-Benefit Analysis</term>
<term>Costeffectiveness ratio</term>
<term>Decision Trees</term>
<term>Different assumptions</term>
<term>Different models</term>
<term>Different sources</term>
<term>Disease exposure</term>
<term>Duintjer tebbens</term>
<term>Dutch guidelines</term>
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<term>Dynamic modeling</term>
<term>Dynamic models</term>
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<term>Economic evaluation</term>
<term>Edmunds</term>
<term>Epidemic size</term>
<term>Friction cost method</term>
<term>Friction period</term>
<term>Future pandemic</term>
<term>Generation interval</term>
<term>Health council</term>
<term>Health econ</term>
<term>Health economics</term>
<term>Health effects</term>
<term>Herd immunity</term>
<term>High value</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Important role</term>
<term>Indirect effects</term>
<term>Infection attack rate</term>
<term>Infection attack rates</term>
<term>Infectious diseases</term>
<term>Infectious individuals</term>
<term>Infectious period</term>
<term>Infectious periods</term>
<term>Initial proportion</term>
<term>John wiley sons</term>
<term>Large uncertainty</term>
<term>Life years</term>
<term>Lipsitch</term>
<term>Lugner</term>
<term>Markov models</term>
<term>Measles eradication</term>
<term>Medical decision</term>
<term>Model approaches</term>
<term>Model choice</term>
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<term>Modeling</term>
<term>Modeling approaches</term>
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<term>National experts</term>
<term>National institute</term>
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<term>Vaccination programmes</term>
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<term>Wallinga</term>
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<term>Modèles économétriques</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Conventional (static) models used in health economics implicitly assume that the probability of disease exposure is constant over time and unaffected by interventions. For transmissible infectious diseases this is not realistic and another class of models is required, so‐called dynamic models. This study aims to examine the differences between one dynamic and one static model, estimating the effects of therapeutic treatment with antiviral (AV) drugs during an influenza pandemic in the Netherlands. Specifically, we focus on the sensitivity of the cost‐effectiveness ratios to model choice, to the assumed drug coverage, and to the value of several epidemiological factors. Therapeutic use of AV‐drugs is cost‐effective compared with non‐intervention, irrespective of which model approach is chosen. The findings further show that: (1) the cost‐effectiveness ratio according to the static model is insensitive to the size of a pandemic, whereas the ratio according to the dynamic model increases with the size of a pandemic; (2) according to the dynamic model, the cost per infection and the life‐years gained per treatment are not constant but depend on the proportion of cases that are treated; and (3) the age‐specific clinical attack rates affect the sensitivity of cost‐effectiveness ratio to model choice. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</div>
</front>
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