Serveur d'exploration sur les pandémies grippales

Attention, ce site est en cours de développement !
Attention, site généré par des moyens informatiques à partir de corpus bruts.
Les informations ne sont donc pas validées.

Geographic transmission hubs of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the United States.

Identifieur interne : 000343 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000342; suivant : 000344

Geographic transmission hubs of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the United States.

Auteurs : Stephen M. Kissler [Royaume-Uni] ; Julia R. Gog [Royaume-Uni] ; Cécile Viboud [États-Unis] ; Vivek Charu [États-Unis] ; Ottar N. Bj Rnstad [États-Unis] ; Lone Simonsen [Danemark] ; Bryan T. Grenfell [États-Unis]

Source :

RBID : pubmed:30327253

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

A key issue in infectious disease epidemiology is to identify and predict geographic sites of epidemic establishment that contribute to onward spread, especially in the context of invasion waves of emerging pathogens. Conventional wisdom suggests that these sites are likely to be in densely-populated, well-connected areas. For pandemic influenza, however, epidemiological data have not been available at a fine enough geographic resolution to test this assumption. Here, we make use of fine-scale influenza-like illness incidence data derived from electronic medical claims records gathered from 834 3-digit ZIP (postal) codes across the US to identify the key geographic establishment sites, or "hubs", of the autumn wave of the 2009 A/H1N1pdm influenza pandemic in the United States. A mechanistic spatial transmission model is fit to epidemic onset times inferred from the data. Hubs are identified by tracing the most probable transmission routes back to a likely first establishment site. Four hubs are identified: two in the southeastern US, one in the central valley of California, and one in the midwestern US. According to the model, 75% of the 834 observed ZIP-level outbreaks in the US were seeded by these four hubs or their epidemiological descendants. Counter-intuitively, the pandemic hubs do not coincide with large and well-connected cities, indicating that factors beyond population density and travel volume are necessary to explain the establishment sites of the major autumn wave of the pandemic. Geographic regions are identified where infection can be statistically traced back to a hub, providing a testable prediction of the outbreak's phylogeography. Our method therefore provides an important way forward to reconcile spatial diffusion patterns inferred from epidemiological surveillance data and pathogen sequence data.

DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.10.002
PubMed: 30327253


Affiliations:


Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)


Le document en format XML

<record>
<TEI>
<teiHeader>
<fileDesc>
<titleStmt>
<title xml:lang="en">Geographic transmission hubs of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the United States.</title>
<author>
<name sortKey="Kissler, Stephen M" sort="Kissler, Stephen M" uniqKey="Kissler S" first="Stephen M" last="Kissler">Stephen M. Kissler</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge, United Kingdom. Electronic address: sk792@cam.ac.uk.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge</wicri:regionArea>
<orgName type="university">Université de Cambridge</orgName>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Cambridge</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Angleterre de l'Est</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Gog, Julia R" sort="Gog, Julia R" uniqKey="Gog J" first="Julia R" last="Gog">Julia R. Gog</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge, United Kingdom.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge</wicri:regionArea>
<orgName type="university">Université de Cambridge</orgName>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Cambridge</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Angleterre de l'Est</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Viboud, Cecile" sort="Viboud, Cecile" uniqKey="Viboud C" first="Cécile" last="Viboud">Cécile Viboud</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:affiliation>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Charu, Vivek" sort="Charu, Vivek" uniqKey="Charu V" first="Vivek" last="Charu">Vivek Charu</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:affiliation>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Bj Rnstad, Ottar N" sort="Bj Rnstad, Ottar N" uniqKey="Bj Rnstad O" first="Ottar N" last="Bj Rnstad">Ottar N. Bj Rnstad</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Entomology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Entomology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Pennsylvanie</region>
<settlement type="city">University Park (Pennsylvanie)</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université d'État de Pennsylvanie</orgName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Simonsen, Lone" sort="Simonsen, Lone" uniqKey="Simonsen L" first="Lone" last="Simonsen">Lone Simonsen</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3">
<nlm:affiliation>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Danemark</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Copenhague</settlement>
<region type="région" nuts="2">Hovedstaden</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Grenfell, Bryan T" sort="Grenfell, Bryan T" uniqKey="Grenfell B" first="Bryan T" last="Grenfell">Bryan T. Grenfell</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Princeton, Princeton, NJ, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Princeton, Princeton, NJ, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt>
<idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno>
<date when="2019">2019</date>
<idno type="RBID">pubmed:30327253</idno>
<idno type="pmid">30327253</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1016/j.epidem.2018.10.002</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000214</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000214</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000214</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000214</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000146</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000146</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">001E78</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">001E78</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">001E78</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000342</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000343</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000343</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc>
<biblStruct>
<analytic>
<title xml:lang="en">Geographic transmission hubs of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the United States.</title>
<author>
<name sortKey="Kissler, Stephen M" sort="Kissler, Stephen M" uniqKey="Kissler S" first="Stephen M" last="Kissler">Stephen M. Kissler</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge, United Kingdom. Electronic address: sk792@cam.ac.uk.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge</wicri:regionArea>
<orgName type="university">Université de Cambridge</orgName>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Cambridge</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Angleterre de l'Est</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Gog, Julia R" sort="Gog, Julia R" uniqKey="Gog J" first="Julia R" last="Gog">Julia R. Gog</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge, United Kingdom.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge</wicri:regionArea>
<orgName type="university">Université de Cambridge</orgName>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Cambridge</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Angleterre de l'Est</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Viboud, Cecile" sort="Viboud, Cecile" uniqKey="Viboud C" first="Cécile" last="Viboud">Cécile Viboud</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:affiliation>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Charu, Vivek" sort="Charu, Vivek" uniqKey="Charu V" first="Vivek" last="Charu">Vivek Charu</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:affiliation>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Bj Rnstad, Ottar N" sort="Bj Rnstad, Ottar N" uniqKey="Bj Rnstad O" first="Ottar N" last="Bj Rnstad">Ottar N. Bj Rnstad</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Entomology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Entomology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Pennsylvanie</region>
<settlement type="city">University Park (Pennsylvanie)</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université d'État de Pennsylvanie</orgName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Simonsen, Lone" sort="Simonsen, Lone" uniqKey="Simonsen L" first="Lone" last="Simonsen">Lone Simonsen</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3">
<nlm:affiliation>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Danemark</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Copenhague</settlement>
<region type="région" nuts="2">Hovedstaden</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Grenfell, Bryan T" sort="Grenfell, Bryan T" uniqKey="Grenfell B" first="Bryan T" last="Grenfell">Bryan T. Grenfell</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Princeton, Princeton, NJ, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Princeton, Princeton, NJ, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series>
<title level="j">Epidemics</title>
<idno type="eISSN">1878-0067</idno>
<imprint>
<date when="2019" type="published">2019</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc>
<textClass>
<keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en">
<term>California (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Disease Outbreaks</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Incidence</term>
<term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Pandemics (statistics & numerical data)</term>
<term>Seasons</term>
<term>Southeastern United States (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Travel</term>
<term>United States (epidemiology)</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Californie (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Flambées de maladies</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Incidence</term>
<term>Pandémies ()</term>
<term>Saisons</term>
<term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A</term>
<term>Voyage</term>
<term>États du Sud-Est des États-Unis (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>États-Unis d'Amérique (épidémiologie)</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en">
<term>California</term>
<term>Southeastern United States</term>
<term>United States</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en">
<term>Influenza, Human</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en">
<term>Pandemics</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Californie</term>
<term>Grippe humaine</term>
<term>États du Sud-Est des États-Unis</term>
<term>États-Unis d'Amérique</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en">
<term>Disease Outbreaks</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Incidence</term>
<term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term>
<term>Seasons</term>
<term>Travel</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Flambées de maladies</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Incidence</term>
<term>Pandémies</term>
<term>Saisons</term>
<term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A</term>
<term>Voyage</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr">
<term>États-Unis</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">A key issue in infectious disease epidemiology is to identify and predict geographic sites of epidemic establishment that contribute to onward spread, especially in the context of invasion waves of emerging pathogens. Conventional wisdom suggests that these sites are likely to be in densely-populated, well-connected areas. For pandemic influenza, however, epidemiological data have not been available at a fine enough geographic resolution to test this assumption. Here, we make use of fine-scale influenza-like illness incidence data derived from electronic medical claims records gathered from 834 3-digit ZIP (postal) codes across the US to identify the key geographic establishment sites, or "hubs", of the autumn wave of the 2009 A/H1N1pdm influenza pandemic in the United States. A mechanistic spatial transmission model is fit to epidemic onset times inferred from the data. Hubs are identified by tracing the most probable transmission routes back to a likely first establishment site. Four hubs are identified: two in the southeastern US, one in the central valley of California, and one in the midwestern US. According to the model, 75% of the 834 observed ZIP-level outbreaks in the US were seeded by these four hubs or their epidemiological descendants. Counter-intuitively, the pandemic hubs do not coincide with large and well-connected cities, indicating that factors beyond population density and travel volume are necessary to explain the establishment sites of the major autumn wave of the pandemic. Geographic regions are identified where infection can be statistically traced back to a hub, providing a testable prediction of the outbreak's phylogeography. Our method therefore provides an important way forward to reconcile spatial diffusion patterns inferred from epidemiological surveillance data and pathogen sequence data.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<affiliations>
<list>
<country>
<li>Danemark</li>
<li>Royaume-Uni</li>
<li>États-Unis</li>
</country>
<region>
<li>Angleterre</li>
<li>Angleterre de l'Est</li>
<li>Hovedstaden</li>
<li>Maryland</li>
<li>Pennsylvanie</li>
</region>
<settlement>
<li>Cambridge</li>
<li>Copenhague</li>
<li>University Park (Pennsylvanie)</li>
</settlement>
<orgName>
<li>Université d'État de Pennsylvanie</li>
<li>Université de Cambridge</li>
</orgName>
</list>
<tree>
<country name="Royaume-Uni">
<region name="Angleterre">
<name sortKey="Kissler, Stephen M" sort="Kissler, Stephen M" uniqKey="Kissler S" first="Stephen M" last="Kissler">Stephen M. Kissler</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Gog, Julia R" sort="Gog, Julia R" uniqKey="Gog J" first="Julia R" last="Gog">Julia R. Gog</name>
</country>
<country name="États-Unis">
<region name="Maryland">
<name sortKey="Viboud, Cecile" sort="Viboud, Cecile" uniqKey="Viboud C" first="Cécile" last="Viboud">Cécile Viboud</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Bj Rnstad, Ottar N" sort="Bj Rnstad, Ottar N" uniqKey="Bj Rnstad O" first="Ottar N" last="Bj Rnstad">Ottar N. Bj Rnstad</name>
<name sortKey="Charu, Vivek" sort="Charu, Vivek" uniqKey="Charu V" first="Vivek" last="Charu">Vivek Charu</name>
<name sortKey="Grenfell, Bryan T" sort="Grenfell, Bryan T" uniqKey="Grenfell B" first="Bryan T" last="Grenfell">Bryan T. Grenfell</name>
</country>
<country name="Danemark">
<region name="Hovedstaden">
<name sortKey="Simonsen, Lone" sort="Simonsen, Lone" uniqKey="Simonsen L" first="Lone" last="Simonsen">Lone Simonsen</name>
</region>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/PandemieGrippaleV1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000343 | SxmlIndent | more

Ou

HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 000343 | SxmlIndent | more

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri

{{Explor lien
   |wiki=    Sante
   |area=    PandemieGrippaleV1
   |flux=    Main
   |étape=   Exploration
   |type=    RBID
   |clé=     pubmed:30327253
   |texte=   Geographic transmission hubs of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the United States.
}}

Pour générer des pages wiki

HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i   -Sk "pubmed:30327253" \
       | HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd   \
       | NlmPubMed2Wicri -a PandemieGrippaleV1 

Wicri

This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.34.
Data generation: Wed Jun 10 11:04:28 2020. Site generation: Sun Mar 28 09:10:28 2021