Increased frequency of travel in the presence of cross-immunity may act to decrease the chance of a global pandemic.
Identifieur interne : 000330 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000329; suivant : 000331Increased frequency of travel in the presence of cross-immunity may act to decrease the chance of a global pandemic.
Auteurs : R N Thompson [Royaume-Uni] ; C P Thompson [Royaume-Uni] ; O. Pelerman [Israël] ; S. Gupta [Royaume-Uni] ; U. Obolski [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences [ 1471-2970 ] ; 2019.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Flambées de maladies, Grippe humaine (immunologie), Grippe humaine (transmission), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Humains, Modèles théoriques, Pandémies, Probabilité, Protection croisée, Santé mondiale, Virulence, Virus de la grippe A (immunologie), Virus de la grippe A (pathogénicité), Virus de la grippe A (physiologie), Voyage ().
- MESH :
- immunologie : Grippe humaine, Virus de la grippe A.
- pathogénicité : Virus de la grippe A.
- physiologie : Virus de la grippe A.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine.
- Flambées de maladies, Humains, Modèles théoriques, Pandémies, Probabilité, Protection croisée, Santé mondiale, Virulence, Voyage.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Cross Protection, Disease Outbreaks, Global Health, Humans, Influenza A virus (immunology), Influenza A virus (pathogenicity), Influenza A virus (physiology), Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (immunology), Influenza, Human (transmission), Models, Theoretical, Pandemics, Probability, Travel (statistics & numerical data), Virulence.
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- immunology : Influenza A virus, Influenza, Human.
- pathogenicity : Influenza A virus.
- physiology : Influenza A virus.
- statistics & numerical data : Travel.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Cross Protection, Disease Outbreaks, Global Health, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Pandemics, Probability, Virulence.
Abstract
The high frequency of modern travel has led to concerns about a devastating pandemic since a lethal pathogen strain could spread worldwide quickly. Many historical pandemics have arisen following pathogen evolution to a more virulent form. However, some pathogen strains invoke immune responses that provide partial cross-immunity against infection with related strains. Here, we consider a mathematical model of successive outbreaks of two strains-a low virulence (LV) strain outbreak followed by a high virulence (HV) strain outbreak. Under these circumstances, we investigate the impacts of varying travel rates and cross-immunity on the probability that a major epidemic of the HV strain occurs, and the size of that outbreak. Frequent travel between subpopulations can lead to widespread immunity to the HV strain, driven by exposure to the LV strain. As a result, major epidemics of the HV strain are less likely, and can potentially be smaller, with more connected subpopulations. Cross-immunity may be a factor contributing to the absence of a global pandemic as severe as the 1918 influenza pandemic in the century since. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2018.0274
PubMed: 31056047
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream PubMed, to step Corpus: 000142
- to stream PubMed, to step Curation: 000142
- to stream PubMed, to step Checkpoint: 000134
- to stream Ncbi, to step Merge: 001F52
- to stream Ncbi, to step Curation: 001F52
- to stream Ncbi, to step Checkpoint: 001F52
- to stream Main, to step Merge: 000329
- to stream Main, to step Curation: 000330
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Increased frequency of travel in the presence of cross-immunity may act to decrease the chance of a global pandemic.</title><author><name sortKey="Thompson, R N" sort="Thompson, R N" uniqKey="Thompson R" first="R N" last="Thompson">R N Thompson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1 Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford , Andrew Wiles Building, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG , UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>1 Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford , Andrew Wiles Building, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG </wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Oxford OX2 6GG </wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Thompson, C P" sort="Thompson, C P" uniqKey="Thompson C" first="C P" last="Thompson">C P Thompson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>2 Department of Zoology, University of Oxford , South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS , UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>2 Department of Zoology, University of Oxford , South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS </wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Oxford OX1 3PS </wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pelerman, O" sort="Pelerman, O" uniqKey="Pelerman O" first="O" last="Pelerman">O. Pelerman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>4 The Chaim Rosenberg School of Jewish Studies, Tel Aviv University , Tel Aviv 69978 , Israel.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country><wicri:regionArea>4 The Chaim Rosenberg School of Jewish Studies, Tel Aviv University , Tel Aviv 69978 </wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Tel Aviv 69978 </wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gupta, S" sort="Gupta, S" uniqKey="Gupta S" first="S" last="Gupta">S. Gupta</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>2 Department of Zoology, University of Oxford , South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS , UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>2 Department of Zoology, University of Oxford , South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS </wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Oxford OX1 3PS </wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Obolski, U" sort="Obolski, U" uniqKey="Obolski U" first="U" last="Obolski">U. Obolski</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>2 Department of Zoology, University of Oxford , South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS , UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>2 Department of Zoology, University of Oxford , South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS </wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Oxford OX1 3PS </wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2019">2019</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:31056047</idno><idno type="pmid">31056047</idno><idno type="doi">10.1098/rstb.2018.0274</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000142</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000142</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000142</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000142</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000134</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000134</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">001F52</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">001F52</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">001F52</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000329</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000330</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000330</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Increased frequency of travel in the presence of cross-immunity may act to decrease the chance of a global pandemic.</title><author><name sortKey="Thompson, R N" sort="Thompson, R N" uniqKey="Thompson R" first="R N" last="Thompson">R N Thompson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1 Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford , Andrew Wiles Building, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG , UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>1 Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford , Andrew Wiles Building, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG </wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Oxford OX2 6GG </wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Thompson, C P" sort="Thompson, C P" uniqKey="Thompson C" first="C P" last="Thompson">C P Thompson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>2 Department of Zoology, University of Oxford , South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS , UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>2 Department of Zoology, University of Oxford , South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS </wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Oxford OX1 3PS </wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pelerman, O" sort="Pelerman, O" uniqKey="Pelerman O" first="O" last="Pelerman">O. Pelerman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>4 The Chaim Rosenberg School of Jewish Studies, Tel Aviv University , Tel Aviv 69978 , Israel.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country><wicri:regionArea>4 The Chaim Rosenberg School of Jewish Studies, Tel Aviv University , Tel Aviv 69978 </wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Tel Aviv 69978 </wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gupta, S" sort="Gupta, S" uniqKey="Gupta S" first="S" last="Gupta">S. Gupta</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>2 Department of Zoology, University of Oxford , South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS , UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>2 Department of Zoology, University of Oxford , South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS </wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Oxford OX1 3PS </wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Obolski, U" sort="Obolski, U" uniqKey="Obolski U" first="U" last="Obolski">U. Obolski</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>2 Department of Zoology, University of Oxford , South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS , UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>2 Department of Zoology, University of Oxford , South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS </wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Oxford OX1 3PS </wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences</title><idno type="eISSN">1471-2970</idno><imprint><date when="2019" type="published">2019</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Cross Protection</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Global Health</term><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza A virus (immunology)</term><term>Influenza A virus (pathogenicity)</term><term>Influenza A virus (physiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (immunology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (transmission)</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Probability</term><term>Travel (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Virulence</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Grippe humaine (immunologie)</term><term>Grippe humaine (transmission)</term><term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Probabilité</term><term>Protection croisée</term><term>Santé mondiale</term><term>Virulence</term><term>Virus de la grippe A (immunologie)</term><term>Virus de la grippe A (pathogénicité)</term><term>Virus de la grippe A (physiologie)</term><term>Voyage ()</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="immunologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Virus de la grippe A</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="immunology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza A virus</term><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="pathogenicity" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza A virus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="pathogénicité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Virus de la grippe A</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Virus de la grippe A</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza A virus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Travel</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Cross Protection</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Global Health</term><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Probability</term><term>Virulence</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Probabilité</term><term>Protection croisée</term><term>Santé mondiale</term><term>Virulence</term><term>Voyage</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The high frequency of modern travel has led to concerns about a devastating pandemic since a lethal pathogen strain could spread worldwide quickly. Many historical pandemics have arisen following pathogen evolution to a more virulent form. However, some pathogen strains invoke immune responses that provide partial cross-immunity against infection with related strains. Here, we consider a mathematical model of successive outbreaks of two strains-a low virulence (LV) strain outbreak followed by a high virulence (HV) strain outbreak. Under these circumstances, we investigate the impacts of varying travel rates and cross-immunity on the probability that a major epidemic of the HV strain occurs, and the size of that outbreak. Frequent travel between subpopulations can lead to widespread immunity to the HV strain, driven by exposure to the LV strain. As a result, major epidemics of the HV strain are less likely, and can potentially be smaller, with more connected subpopulations. Cross-immunity may be a factor contributing to the absence of a global pandemic as severe as the 1918 influenza pandemic in the century since. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Israël</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li></country></list><tree><country name="Royaume-Uni"><noRegion><name sortKey="Thompson, R N" sort="Thompson, R N" uniqKey="Thompson R" first="R N" last="Thompson">R N Thompson</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Gupta, S" sort="Gupta, S" uniqKey="Gupta S" first="S" last="Gupta">S. Gupta</name><name sortKey="Obolski, U" sort="Obolski, U" uniqKey="Obolski U" first="U" last="Obolski">U. Obolski</name><name sortKey="Thompson, C P" sort="Thompson, C P" uniqKey="Thompson C" first="C P" last="Thompson">C P Thompson</name></country><country name="Israël"><noRegion><name sortKey="Pelerman, O" sort="Pelerman, O" uniqKey="Pelerman O" first="O" last="Pelerman">O. Pelerman</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/PandemieGrippaleV1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000330 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 000330 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= PandemieGrippaleV1
|flux= Main
|étape= Exploration
|type= RBID
|clé= pubmed:31056047
|texte= Increased frequency of travel in the presence of cross-immunity may act to decrease the chance of a global pandemic.
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:31056047" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a PandemieGrippaleV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.34. |  |