Mortality and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona
Identifieur interne : 000859 ( Main/Curation ); précédent : 000858; suivant : 000860Mortality and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona
Auteurs : April J. Cobos [États-Unis] ; Clinton G. Nelson [États-Unis] ; Megan Jehn [États-Unis] ; Cécile Viboud [États-Unis] ; Gerardo Chowell [États-Unis]Source :
- BMC Infectious Diseases [ 1471-2334 ] ; 2016.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Arizona (épidémiologie), Bases de données factuelles, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Femelle, Grippe humaine (histoire), Grippe humaine (mortalité), Grippe humaine (transmission), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Histoire du 20ème siècle, Humains, Jeune adulte, Journaux, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Pandémies, Sous-type H2N2 du virus de la grippe A (isolement et purification), Sujet âgé, Taux de survie.
- MESH :
- histoire : Grippe humaine.
- isolement et purification : Sous-type H2N2 du virus de la grippe A.
- mortalité : Grippe humaine.
- épidémiologie : Arizona, Grippe humaine.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Bases de données factuelles, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Femelle, Histoire du 20ème siècle, Humains, Jeune adulte, Journaux, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Pandémies, Sujet âgé, Taux de survie.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Arizona (epidemiology), Child, Child, Preschool, Databases, Factual, Female, History, 20th Century, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype (isolation & purification), Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (history), Influenza, Human (mortality), Influenza, Human (transmission), Middle Aged, Newspapers as Topic, Pandemics, Survival Rate, Young Adult.
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Arizona, Influenza, Human.
- history : Influenza, Human.
- isolation & purification : Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype.
- mortality : Influenza, Human.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Child, Child, Preschool, Databases, Factual, Female, History, 20th Century, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Middle Aged, Newspapers as Topic, Pandemics, Survival Rate, Young Adult.
Abstract
While prior studies have quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic at broad geographic regions in the United States, little is known about the pandemic impact at a local level. Here we focus on analyzing the transmissibility and mortality burden of this pandemic in Arizona, a setting where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high.
Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, we quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 H2N2 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and assumed generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles published during 1957–1958 were also examined.
Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 16.59 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups exhibit very low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, the standardized mortality ratio was greatest (4.06) among children and young adolescents (5–14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on mortality rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957–1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was estimated at 1.08–1.11, assuming 3- or 4-day generation intervals with exponential or fixed distributions.
Maricopa County exhibited very low mortality impact associated with the 1957 influenza pandemic. Understanding the relatively low excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County during this historic pandemic may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-016-1716-7
PubMed: 27516082
PubMed Central: 4982429
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PMC:4982429Le document en format XML
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Mortality and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona</title>
<author><name sortKey="Cobos, April J" sort="Cobos, April J" uniqKey="Cobos A" first="April J." last="Cobos">April J. Cobos</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Nelson, Clinton G" sort="Nelson, Clinton G" uniqKey="Nelson C" first="Clinton G." last="Nelson">Clinton G. Nelson</name>
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<placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
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<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="Aff5">School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA USA</nlm:aff>
<country>États-Unis</country>
<placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region>
</placeName>
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<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Adult</term>
<term>Aged</term>
<term>Arizona (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Child</term>
<term>Child, Preschool</term>
<term>Databases, Factual</term>
<term>Female</term>
<term>History, 20th Century</term>
<term>Humans</term>
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<term>Infant, Newborn</term>
<term>Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype (isolation & purification)</term>
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<term>Influenza, Human (history)</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (mortality)</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (transmission)</term>
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<term>Newspapers as Topic</term>
<term>Pandemics</term>
<term>Survival Rate</term>
<term>Young Adult</term>
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<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Adulte</term>
<term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term>
<term>Arizona (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Bases de données factuelles</term>
<term>Enfant</term>
<term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term>
<term>Femelle</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (histoire)</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (mortalité)</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (transmission)</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Histoire du 20ème siècle</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Jeune adulte</term>
<term>Journaux</term>
<term>Nourrisson</term>
<term>Nouveau-né</term>
<term>Pandémies</term>
<term>Sous-type H2N2 du virus de la grippe A (isolement et purification)</term>
<term>Sujet âgé</term>
<term>Taux de survie</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Arizona</term>
<term>Influenza, Human</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="histoire" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="history" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="isolation & purification" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="isolement et purification" xml:lang="fr"><term>Sous-type H2N2 du virus de la grippe A</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortalité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Arizona</term>
<term>Grippe humaine</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Adult</term>
<term>Aged</term>
<term>Child</term>
<term>Child, Preschool</term>
<term>Databases, Factual</term>
<term>Female</term>
<term>History, 20th Century</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Infant</term>
<term>Infant, Newborn</term>
<term>Middle Aged</term>
<term>Newspapers as Topic</term>
<term>Pandemics</term>
<term>Survival Rate</term>
<term>Young Adult</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Adulte</term>
<term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term>
<term>Bases de données factuelles</term>
<term>Enfant</term>
<term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term>
<term>Femelle</term>
<term>Histoire du 20ème siècle</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Jeune adulte</term>
<term>Journaux</term>
<term>Nourrisson</term>
<term>Nouveau-né</term>
<term>Pandémies</term>
<term>Sujet âgé</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title>
<p>While prior studies have quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic at broad geographic regions in the United States, little is known about the pandemic impact at a local level. Here we focus on analyzing the transmissibility and mortality burden of this pandemic in Arizona, a setting where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p>Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, we quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 H2N2 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and assumed generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles published during 1957–1958 were also examined.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 16.59 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups exhibit very low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, the standardized mortality ratio was greatest (4.06) among children and young adolescents (5–14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on mortality rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957–1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was estimated at 1.08–1.11, assuming 3- or 4-day generation intervals with exponential or fixed distributions.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>Maricopa County exhibited very low mortality impact associated with the 1957 influenza pandemic. Understanding the relatively low excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County during this historic pandemic may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
<back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Olson, Dr" uniqKey="Olson D">DR Olson</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L Simonsen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Edelson, Pj" uniqKey="Edelson P">PJ Edelson</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Morse, Ss" uniqKey="Morse S">SS Morse</name>
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<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G Chowell</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C Viboud</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L Simonsen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Miller, Ma" uniqKey="Miller M">MA Miller</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Acuna Soto, R" uniqKey="Acuna Soto R">R Acuna-Soto</name>
</author>
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<author><name sortKey="Erkoreka, A" uniqKey="Erkoreka A">A Erkoreka</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C Viboud</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Echeverri Davila, B" uniqKey="Echeverri Davila B">B Echeverri-Davila</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chandra, S" uniqKey="Chandra S">S Chandra</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kuljanin, G" uniqKey="Kuljanin G">G Kuljanin</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wray, J" uniqKey="Wray J">J Wray</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Reichert, T" uniqKey="Reichert T">T Reichert</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G Chowell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mccullers, Ja" uniqKey="Mccullers J">JA McCullers</name>
</author>
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