COVID-19 pandemic control: balancing detection policy and lockdown intervention under ICU sustainability
Identifieur interne : 000025 ( Main/Curation ); précédent : 000024; suivant : 000026COVID-19 pandemic control: balancing detection policy and lockdown intervention under ICU sustainability
Auteurs : Arthur Charpentier [Canada] ; Romuald Elie [France] ; Mathieu Laurière [États-Unis] ; Viet-Chi Tran [France]Source :
Descripteurs français
- Wicri :
- topic : Essai.
English descriptors
- mix :
Abstract
We consider here an extended $SIR$ model, including several features of the recent COVID-19 outbreak: in particular the infected and recovered individuals can either be detected (+) or undetected (-) and we also integrate an intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of the optimal policy for the control of the epidemic dynamics using both lockdown and detection intervention levers. With parametric specification based on literature on COVID-19, we investigate the sensitivities of various quantities on the optimal strategies, taking into account the subtle trade-off between the sanitary and the socio-economic cost of the pandemic, together with the limited capacity level of ICU. We identify the optimal lockdown policy as an intervention structured in 4 successive phases: First a quick and strong lockdown intervention to stop the exponential growth of the contagion; second a short transition phase to reduce the prevalence of the virus; third a long period with full ICU capacity and stable virus prevalence; finally a return to normal social interactions with disappearance of the virus. The optimal scenario hereby avoids the second wave of infection, provided the lockdown is released sufficiently slowly. We also provide optimal intervention measures with increasing ICU capacity, as well as optimization over the effort on detection of infectious and immune individuals. Whenever massive resources are introduced to detect infected individuals, the pressure on social distancing can be released, whereas the impact of detection of immune individuals reveals to be more moderate.
Url:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Hal, to step Corpus: Pour aller vers cette notice dans l'étape Curation :000087
- to stream Hal, to step Curation: Pour aller vers cette notice dans l'étape Curation :000087
- to stream Hal, to step Checkpoint: Pour aller vers cette notice dans l'étape Curation :000025
- to stream Main, to step Merge: Pour aller vers cette notice dans l'étape Curation :000025
Links to Exploration step
Hal:hal-02572966Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">COVID-19 pandemic control: balancing detection policy and lockdown intervention under ICU sustainability</title>
<author><name sortKey="Charpentier, Arthur" sort="Charpentier, Arthur" uniqKey="Charpentier A" first="Arthur" last="Charpentier">Arthur Charpentier</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="institution" xml:id="struct-360045" status="VALID"> <orgName>Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">UQAM</orgName>
<desc> <address> <addrLine>Université du Québec à Montréal CP 8888, succursale Centre-ville Montréal (Québec) H3C 3P8 </addrLine>
<country key="CA"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">http://www.uqam.ca/</ref>
</desc>
</hal:affiliation>
<country>Canada</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Elie, Romuald" sort="Elie, Romuald" uniqKey="Elie R" first="Romuald" last="Elie">Romuald Elie</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-1004422" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">140519378</idno>
<idno type="RNSR">200212718V</idno>
<orgName>Laboratoire Analyse et Mathématiques Appliquées</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">LAMA</orgName>
<date type="start">2020-01-01</date>
<desc> <address> <addrLine>Université Gustave Eiffel, 5 boulevard Descartes, F-77454 Marne-la-Vallée, FranceUniversité Paris-Est Créteil LAMA UMR CNRS 8050 UFR des Sciences et TechnologieBâtiment P3 - 4ème étage -61, avenue du Général de Gaulle 94010 Créteil Cedex</addrLine>
<country key="FR"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">https://lama.u-pem.fr/</ref>
</desc>
<listRelation> <relation name="UMR8050" active="#struct-420786" type="direct"></relation>
<relation name="UMR8050" active="#struct-441569" type="direct"></relation>
<relation name="UMR8050" active="#struct-580722" type="direct"></relation>
</listRelation>
<tutelles><tutelle name="UMR8050" active="#struct-420786" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-420786" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">028021037</idno>
<idno type="ISNI">0000000121497878</idno>
<orgName>Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">UPEC UP12</orgName>
<date type="start">1970-01-01</date>
<desc> <address> <addrLine>61 avenue du Général de Gaulle - 94010 Créteil cedex</addrLine>
<country key="FR"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">http://www.u-pec.fr/</ref>
</desc>
</org>
</tutelle>
<tutelle name="UMR8050" active="#struct-441569" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-441569" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">02636817X</idno>
<idno type="ISNI">0000000122597504</idno>
<orgName>Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">CNRS</orgName>
<date type="start">1939-10-19</date>
<desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">http://www.cnrs.fr/</ref>
</desc>
</org>
</tutelle>
<tutelle name="UMR8050" active="#struct-580722" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-580722" status="VALID"> <orgName>Université Gustave Eiffel</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">UNIV GUSTAVE EIFFEL</orgName>
<date type="start">2020-01-01</date>
<desc> <address> <addrLine>Cité Descartes5 Boulevard Descartes • Champs-sur-Marne77454 Marne-la-Vallée Cedex 2 • FRANCE</addrLine>
<country key="FR"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">https://www.univ-gustave-eiffel.fr/</ref>
</desc>
</org>
</tutelle>
</tutelles>
</hal:affiliation>
<country>France</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lauriere, Mathieu" sort="Lauriere, Mathieu" uniqKey="Lauriere M" first="Mathieu" last="Laurière">Mathieu Laurière</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-171622" status="VALID"> <orgName>Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">ORFE</orgName>
<desc> <address> <addrLine>Princeton University Sherrerd Hall, Charlton Street Princeton, NJ 08544</addrLine>
<country key="US"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">http://orfe.princeton.edu/</ref>
</desc>
<listRelation> <relation active="#struct-343468" type="direct"></relation>
</listRelation>
<tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-343468" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-343468" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Princeton University, School of Engineering and Applied Science</orgName>
<desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country>
</address>
</desc>
</org>
</tutelle>
</tutelles>
</hal:affiliation>
<country>États-Unis</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tran, Viet Chi" sort="Tran, Viet Chi" uniqKey="Tran V" first="Viet-Chi" last="Tran">Viet-Chi Tran</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-1004422" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">140519378</idno>
<idno type="RNSR">200212718V</idno>
<orgName>Laboratoire Analyse et Mathématiques Appliquées</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">LAMA</orgName>
<date type="start">2020-01-01</date>
<desc> <address> <addrLine>Université Gustave Eiffel, 5 boulevard Descartes, F-77454 Marne-la-Vallée, FranceUniversité Paris-Est Créteil LAMA UMR CNRS 8050 UFR des Sciences et TechnologieBâtiment P3 - 4ème étage -61, avenue du Général de Gaulle 94010 Créteil Cedex</addrLine>
<country key="FR"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">https://lama.u-pem.fr/</ref>
</desc>
<listRelation> <relation name="UMR8050" active="#struct-420786" type="direct"></relation>
<relation name="UMR8050" active="#struct-441569" type="direct"></relation>
<relation name="UMR8050" active="#struct-580722" type="direct"></relation>
</listRelation>
<tutelles><tutelle name="UMR8050" active="#struct-420786" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-420786" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">028021037</idno>
<idno type="ISNI">0000000121497878</idno>
<orgName>Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">UPEC UP12</orgName>
<date type="start">1970-01-01</date>
<desc> <address> <addrLine>61 avenue du Général de Gaulle - 94010 Créteil cedex</addrLine>
<country key="FR"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">http://www.u-pec.fr/</ref>
</desc>
</org>
</tutelle>
<tutelle name="UMR8050" active="#struct-441569" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-441569" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">02636817X</idno>
<idno type="ISNI">0000000122597504</idno>
<orgName>Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">CNRS</orgName>
<date type="start">1939-10-19</date>
<desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">http://www.cnrs.fr/</ref>
</desc>
</org>
</tutelle>
<tutelle name="UMR8050" active="#struct-580722" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-580722" status="VALID"> <orgName>Université Gustave Eiffel</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">UNIV GUSTAVE EIFFEL</orgName>
<date type="start">2020-01-01</date>
<desc> <address> <addrLine>Cité Descartes5 Boulevard Descartes • Champs-sur-Marne77454 Marne-la-Vallée Cedex 2 • FRANCE</addrLine>
<country key="FR"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">https://www.univ-gustave-eiffel.fr/</ref>
</desc>
</org>
</tutelle>
</tutelles>
</hal:affiliation>
<country>France</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">HAL</idno>
<idno type="RBID">Hal:hal-02572966</idno>
<idno type="halId">hal-02572966</idno>
<idno type="halUri">https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02572966</idno>
<idno type="url">https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02572966</idno>
<date when="2020-05-13">2020-05-13</date>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Hal/Corpus">000087</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Hal/Curation">000087</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Hal/Checkpoint">000025</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Hal" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000025</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000025</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000025</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">COVID-19 pandemic control: balancing detection policy and lockdown intervention under ICU sustainability</title>
<author><name sortKey="Charpentier, Arthur" sort="Charpentier, Arthur" uniqKey="Charpentier A" first="Arthur" last="Charpentier">Arthur Charpentier</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="institution" xml:id="struct-360045" status="VALID"> <orgName>Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">UQAM</orgName>
<desc> <address> <addrLine>Université du Québec à Montréal CP 8888, succursale Centre-ville Montréal (Québec) H3C 3P8 </addrLine>
<country key="CA"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">http://www.uqam.ca/</ref>
</desc>
</hal:affiliation>
<country>Canada</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Elie, Romuald" sort="Elie, Romuald" uniqKey="Elie R" first="Romuald" last="Elie">Romuald Elie</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-1004422" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">140519378</idno>
<idno type="RNSR">200212718V</idno>
<orgName>Laboratoire Analyse et Mathématiques Appliquées</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">LAMA</orgName>
<date type="start">2020-01-01</date>
<desc> <address> <addrLine>Université Gustave Eiffel, 5 boulevard Descartes, F-77454 Marne-la-Vallée, FranceUniversité Paris-Est Créteil LAMA UMR CNRS 8050 UFR des Sciences et TechnologieBâtiment P3 - 4ème étage -61, avenue du Général de Gaulle 94010 Créteil Cedex</addrLine>
<country key="FR"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">https://lama.u-pem.fr/</ref>
</desc>
<listRelation> <relation name="UMR8050" active="#struct-420786" type="direct"></relation>
<relation name="UMR8050" active="#struct-441569" type="direct"></relation>
<relation name="UMR8050" active="#struct-580722" type="direct"></relation>
</listRelation>
<tutelles><tutelle name="UMR8050" active="#struct-420786" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-420786" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">028021037</idno>
<idno type="ISNI">0000000121497878</idno>
<orgName>Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">UPEC UP12</orgName>
<date type="start">1970-01-01</date>
<desc> <address> <addrLine>61 avenue du Général de Gaulle - 94010 Créteil cedex</addrLine>
<country key="FR"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">http://www.u-pec.fr/</ref>
</desc>
</org>
</tutelle>
<tutelle name="UMR8050" active="#struct-441569" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-441569" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">02636817X</idno>
<idno type="ISNI">0000000122597504</idno>
<orgName>Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">CNRS</orgName>
<date type="start">1939-10-19</date>
<desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">http://www.cnrs.fr/</ref>
</desc>
</org>
</tutelle>
<tutelle name="UMR8050" active="#struct-580722" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-580722" status="VALID"> <orgName>Université Gustave Eiffel</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">UNIV GUSTAVE EIFFEL</orgName>
<date type="start">2020-01-01</date>
<desc> <address> <addrLine>Cité Descartes5 Boulevard Descartes • Champs-sur-Marne77454 Marne-la-Vallée Cedex 2 • FRANCE</addrLine>
<country key="FR"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">https://www.univ-gustave-eiffel.fr/</ref>
</desc>
</org>
</tutelle>
</tutelles>
</hal:affiliation>
<country>France</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lauriere, Mathieu" sort="Lauriere, Mathieu" uniqKey="Lauriere M" first="Mathieu" last="Laurière">Mathieu Laurière</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-171622" status="VALID"> <orgName>Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">ORFE</orgName>
<desc> <address> <addrLine>Princeton University Sherrerd Hall, Charlton Street Princeton, NJ 08544</addrLine>
<country key="US"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">http://orfe.princeton.edu/</ref>
</desc>
<listRelation> <relation active="#struct-343468" type="direct"></relation>
</listRelation>
<tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-343468" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-343468" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Princeton University, School of Engineering and Applied Science</orgName>
<desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country>
</address>
</desc>
</org>
</tutelle>
</tutelles>
</hal:affiliation>
<country>États-Unis</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tran, Viet Chi" sort="Tran, Viet Chi" uniqKey="Tran V" first="Viet-Chi" last="Tran">Viet-Chi Tran</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-1004422" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">140519378</idno>
<idno type="RNSR">200212718V</idno>
<orgName>Laboratoire Analyse et Mathématiques Appliquées</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">LAMA</orgName>
<date type="start">2020-01-01</date>
<desc> <address> <addrLine>Université Gustave Eiffel, 5 boulevard Descartes, F-77454 Marne-la-Vallée, FranceUniversité Paris-Est Créteil LAMA UMR CNRS 8050 UFR des Sciences et TechnologieBâtiment P3 - 4ème étage -61, avenue du Général de Gaulle 94010 Créteil Cedex</addrLine>
<country key="FR"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">https://lama.u-pem.fr/</ref>
</desc>
<listRelation> <relation name="UMR8050" active="#struct-420786" type="direct"></relation>
<relation name="UMR8050" active="#struct-441569" type="direct"></relation>
<relation name="UMR8050" active="#struct-580722" type="direct"></relation>
</listRelation>
<tutelles><tutelle name="UMR8050" active="#struct-420786" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-420786" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">028021037</idno>
<idno type="ISNI">0000000121497878</idno>
<orgName>Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">UPEC UP12</orgName>
<date type="start">1970-01-01</date>
<desc> <address> <addrLine>61 avenue du Général de Gaulle - 94010 Créteil cedex</addrLine>
<country key="FR"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">http://www.u-pec.fr/</ref>
</desc>
</org>
</tutelle>
<tutelle name="UMR8050" active="#struct-441569" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-441569" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">02636817X</idno>
<idno type="ISNI">0000000122597504</idno>
<orgName>Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">CNRS</orgName>
<date type="start">1939-10-19</date>
<desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">http://www.cnrs.fr/</ref>
</desc>
</org>
</tutelle>
<tutelle name="UMR8050" active="#struct-580722" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-580722" status="VALID"> <orgName>Université Gustave Eiffel</orgName>
<orgName type="acronym">UNIV GUSTAVE EIFFEL</orgName>
<date type="start">2020-01-01</date>
<desc> <address> <addrLine>Cité Descartes5 Boulevard Descartes • Champs-sur-Marne77454 Marne-la-Vallée Cedex 2 • FRANCE</addrLine>
<country key="FR"></country>
</address>
<ref type="url">https://www.univ-gustave-eiffel.fr/</ref>
</desc>
</org>
</tutelle>
</tutelles>
</hal:affiliation>
<country>France</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="mix" xml:lang="en"><term>COVID-19</term>
<term>Detection</term>
<term>Intensive Care Unit (ICU)</term>
<term>Lockdown</term>
<term>Optimal Control</term>
<term>Quarantine</term>
<term>SARS-CoV-2</term>
<term>Sustainability</term>
<term>Testing</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Essai</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"> <p>We consider here an extended $SIR$ model, including several features of the recent COVID-19 outbreak: in particular the infected and recovered individuals can either be detected (+) or undetected (-) and we also integrate an intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of the optimal policy for the control of the epidemic dynamics using both lockdown and detection intervention levers. With parametric specification based on literature on COVID-19, we investigate the sensitivities of various quantities on the optimal strategies, taking into account the subtle trade-off between the sanitary and the socio-economic cost of the pandemic, together with the limited capacity level of ICU. We identify the optimal lockdown policy as an intervention structured in 4 successive phases: First a quick and strong lockdown intervention to stop the exponential growth of the contagion; second a short transition phase to reduce the prevalence of the virus; third a long period with full ICU capacity and stable virus prevalence; finally a return to normal social interactions with disappearance of the virus. The optimal scenario hereby avoids the second wave of infection, provided the lockdown is released sufficiently slowly. We also provide optimal intervention measures with increasing ICU capacity, as well as optimization over the effort on detection of infectious and immune individuals. Whenever massive resources are introduced to detect infected individuals, the pressure on social distancing can be released, whereas the impact of detection of immune individuals reveals to be more moderate.</p>
</div>
</front>
</TEI>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/PandemieGrippaleV1/Data/Main/Curation
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000025 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Curation/biblio.hfd -nk 000025 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Sante |area= PandemieGrippaleV1 |flux= Main |étape= Curation |type= RBID |clé= Hal:hal-02572966 |texte= COVID-19 pandemic control: balancing detection policy and lockdown intervention under ICU sustainability }}
![]() | This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.34. | ![]() |