A Delay Differential Model for Pandemic Influenza with Antiviral Treatment
Identifieur interne : 000091 ( Istex/Curation ); précédent : 000090; suivant : 000092A Delay Differential Model for Pandemic Influenza with Antiviral Treatment
Auteurs : Murray E. Alexander [Canada] ; Seyed M. Moghadas [Canada] ; Gergely Röst [Hongrie, Canada] ; Jianhong Wu [Canada]Source :
- Bulletin of Mathematical Biology [ 0092-8240 ] ; 2008.
Abstract
Abstract: The use of antiviral drugs has been recognized as the primary public health strategy for mitigating the severity of a new influenza pandemic strain. However, the success of this strategy requires the prompt onset of therapy within 48 hours of the appearance of clinical symptoms. This requirement may be captured by a compartmental model that monitors the density of infected individuals in terms of the time elapsed since the onset of symptoms. We show that such a model can be expressed by a system of delay differential equations with both discrete and distributed delays. The model is analyzed to derive the criterion for disease control based on two critical factors: (i) the profile of treatment rate; and (ii) the level of treatment as a function of time lag in commencing therapy. Numerical results are also obtained to illustrate the feasible region of disease control. Our findings show that due to uncertainty in the attack rate of a pandemic strain, initiating therapy immediately upon diagnosis can significantly increase the likelihood of disease control and substantially reduce the required community-level of treatment. This suggests that reliable diagnostic methods for influenza cases should be rapidly implemented within an antiviral treatment strategy.
Url:
DOI: 10.1007/s11538-007-9257-2
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Istex, to step Corpus: Pour aller vers cette notice dans l'étape Curation :000091
Links to Exploration step
ISTEX:0F31436A23B1B09A9582C24F2854B73630CFCFCBLe document en format XML
<record><TEI wicri:istexFullTextTei="biblStruct"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">A Delay Differential Model for Pandemic Influenza with Antiviral Treatment</title>
<author><name sortKey="Alexander, Murray E" sort="Alexander, Murray E" uniqKey="Alexander M" first="Murray E." last="Alexander">Murray E. Alexander</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>Institute for Biodiagnostics, National Research Council Canada, R3B 1Y6, Winnipeg, MB, Canada</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute for Biodiagnostics, National Research Council Canada, R3B 1Y6, Winnipeg, MB</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>Department of Physics, The University of Winnipeg, R3B 2E9, Winnipeg, MB, Canada</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Physics, The University of Winnipeg, R3B 2E9, Winnipeg, MB</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Moghadas, Seyed M" sort="Moghadas, Seyed M" uniqKey="Moghadas S" first="Seyed M." last="Moghadas">Seyed M. Moghadas</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>Institute for Biodiagnostics, National Research Council Canada, R3B 1Y6, Winnipeg, MB, Canada</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute for Biodiagnostics, National Research Council Canada, R3B 1Y6, Winnipeg, MB</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Winnipeg, R3B 2E9, Winnipeg, MB, Canada</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Winnipeg, R3B 2E9, Winnipeg, MB</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>E-mail: Seyed.Moghadas@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca</mods:affiliation>
<country wicri:rule="url">Canada</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Rost, Gergely" sort="Rost, Gergely" uniqKey="Rost G" first="Gergely" last="Röst">Gergely Röst</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>Analysis and Stochastics Research Group, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1, 6720, Szeged, Hungary</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Hongrie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Analysis and Stochastics Research Group, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1, 6720, Szeged</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>Centre for Disease Modelling, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele Street, M3J 1P3, Toronto, ON, Canada</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Centre for Disease Modelling, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele Street, M3J 1P3, Toronto, ON</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wu, Jianhong" sort="Wu, Jianhong" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Jianhong" last="Wu">Jianhong Wu</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>Centre for Disease Modelling, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele Street, M3J 1P3, Toronto, ON, Canada</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Centre for Disease Modelling, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele Street, M3J 1P3, Toronto, ON</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">ISTEX</idno>
<idno type="RBID">ISTEX:0F31436A23B1B09A9582C24F2854B73630CFCFCB</idno>
<date when="2007" year="2007">2007</date>
<idno type="doi">10.1007/s11538-007-9257-2</idno>
<idno type="url">https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/VQC-4NC642N6-5/fulltext.pdf</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Corpus">000091</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="ISTEX">000091</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Curation">000091</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title level="a" type="main" xml:lang="en">A Delay Differential Model for Pandemic Influenza with Antiviral Treatment</title>
<author><name sortKey="Alexander, Murray E" sort="Alexander, Murray E" uniqKey="Alexander M" first="Murray E." last="Alexander">Murray E. Alexander</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>Institute for Biodiagnostics, National Research Council Canada, R3B 1Y6, Winnipeg, MB, Canada</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute for Biodiagnostics, National Research Council Canada, R3B 1Y6, Winnipeg, MB</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>Department of Physics, The University of Winnipeg, R3B 2E9, Winnipeg, MB, Canada</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Physics, The University of Winnipeg, R3B 2E9, Winnipeg, MB</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Moghadas, Seyed M" sort="Moghadas, Seyed M" uniqKey="Moghadas S" first="Seyed M." last="Moghadas">Seyed M. Moghadas</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>Institute for Biodiagnostics, National Research Council Canada, R3B 1Y6, Winnipeg, MB, Canada</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute for Biodiagnostics, National Research Council Canada, R3B 1Y6, Winnipeg, MB</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Winnipeg, R3B 2E9, Winnipeg, MB, Canada</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Winnipeg, R3B 2E9, Winnipeg, MB</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>E-mail: Seyed.Moghadas@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca</mods:affiliation>
<country wicri:rule="url">Canada</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Rost, Gergely" sort="Rost, Gergely" uniqKey="Rost G" first="Gergely" last="Röst">Gergely Röst</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>Analysis and Stochastics Research Group, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1, 6720, Szeged, Hungary</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Hongrie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Analysis and Stochastics Research Group, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1, 6720, Szeged</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>Centre for Disease Modelling, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele Street, M3J 1P3, Toronto, ON, Canada</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Centre for Disease Modelling, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele Street, M3J 1P3, Toronto, ON</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wu, Jianhong" sort="Wu, Jianhong" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Jianhong" last="Wu">Jianhong Wu</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><mods:affiliation>Centre for Disease Modelling, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele Street, M3J 1P3, Toronto, ON, Canada</mods:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Centre for Disease Modelling, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele Street, M3J 1P3, Toronto, ON</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<monogr></monogr>
<series><title level="j" type="main">Bulletin of Mathematical Biology</title>
<title level="j" type="abbrev">Bull. Math. Biol.</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0092-8240</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1522-9602</idno>
<imprint><publisher ref="https://scientific-publisher.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/H02-SWLMH5L1-1">Springer-Verlag</publisher>
<pubPlace>New York</pubPlace>
<date type="published" when="2008">2008</date>
<biblScope unit="vol" from="70" to="70">70</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="issue" from="2" to="2">2</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="page" from="382">382</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="page" to="397">397</biblScope>
</imprint>
<idno type="ISSN">0092-8240</idno>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
<seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0092-8240</idno>
</seriesStmt>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Abstract: The use of antiviral drugs has been recognized as the primary public health strategy for mitigating the severity of a new influenza pandemic strain. However, the success of this strategy requires the prompt onset of therapy within 48 hours of the appearance of clinical symptoms. This requirement may be captured by a compartmental model that monitors the density of infected individuals in terms of the time elapsed since the onset of symptoms. We show that such a model can be expressed by a system of delay differential equations with both discrete and distributed delays. The model is analyzed to derive the criterion for disease control based on two critical factors: (i) the profile of treatment rate; and (ii) the level of treatment as a function of time lag in commencing therapy. Numerical results are also obtained to illustrate the feasible region of disease control. Our findings show that due to uncertainty in the attack rate of a pandemic strain, initiating therapy immediately upon diagnosis can significantly increase the likelihood of disease control and substantially reduce the required community-level of treatment. This suggests that reliable diagnostic methods for influenza cases should be rapidly implemented within an antiviral treatment strategy.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/PandemieGrippaleV1/Data/Istex/Curation
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000091 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Istex/Curation/biblio.hfd -nk 000091 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Sante |area= PandemieGrippaleV1 |flux= Istex |étape= Curation |type= RBID |clé= ISTEX:0F31436A23B1B09A9582C24F2854B73630CFCFCB |texte= A Delay Differential Model for Pandemic Influenza with Antiviral Treatment }}
![]() | This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.34. | ![]() |