PandemieGrippaleV1, Hal, Curation, bibRecord, 000198

Epidemiological monitoring and control perspectives: application of a parsimonious modelling framework to the COVID-19 dynamics in France

Identifieur interne : 000198 ( Hal/Curation ); précédent : 000197; suivant : 000199

Epidemiological monitoring and control perspectives: application of a parsimonious modelling framework to the COVID-19 dynamics in France

Auteurs : Mircea T. Sofonea [France] ; Bastien Reyné ; Baptiste Elie [France] ; Ramsès Djidjou-Demasse [France] ; Christian Selinger [France] ; Yannis Michalakis [France] ; Samuel Alizon [France]

Source :

RBID : Hal:hal-02619546

English descriptors

mix :
- COVID-19, discrete time modelling, epidemiology, memory effects, non-pharmaceutical interventions, public health, reproduction number 1.

Abstract

10 SARS-Cov-2 virus has spread over the world creating one of the fastest pandemics ever. The absence of immunity, asymptomatic transmission, and the relatively high level of virulence of the COVID-19 infection it causes led to a massive flow of patients in intensive care units (ICU). This unprecedented situation calls for rapid and accurate mathematical models to best inform public health policies. We develop an original parsimonious model that accounts for the effect 15 of the age of infection on the natural history of the disease. Analysing the ongoing COVID-19 in France, we estimate the value of the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number (R 0), and the efficiency of the national control strategy. We then use our deterministic model to explore several scenarios posterior to lock-down lifting and compare the efficiency of non pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) described in the literature. 20

Url:

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02619546

DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.22.20110593

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Le document en format XML

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Epidemiological monitoring and control perspectives: application of a parsimonious modelling framework to the COVID-19 dynamics in France

Epidemiological monitoring and control perspectives: application of a parsimonious modelling framework to the COVID-19 dynamics in France

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