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Epidemic spreading : the role of host mobility and transportation networks

Identifieur interne : 000194 ( Hal/Curation ); précédent : 000193; suivant : 000195

Epidemic spreading : the role of host mobility and transportation networks

Auteurs : Paolo Bajardi [France]

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RBID : Hal:tel-01287729

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English descriptors

Abstract

In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to gather an unprecedented amount of data depicting the global interconnections of the modern society and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis and the modeling of dynamical pro- cesses unfolding on such a complex reality. In this perspective, the quantitative approach of Physics is catalyzing the growth of new interdisciplinary fields aimed at the understanding of complex techno-socio-ecological systems. By recognizing the crucial role of host mobility in the dissemination of infectious diseases and by leveraging on a network science approach to handle the large scale datasets describing the global interconnectivity, in this thesis we present a theo- retical and computational framework to simulate epidemics of emerging infectious diseases in real settings. In particular we will tackle two different public health related issues. First, we present a Global Epidemic and Mobility model (GLEaM) that is designed to simulate the spreading of an influenza-like illness at the global scale integrating real world-wide mobility data. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic demonstrated the need of mathematical models to provide epidemic forecasts and to assess the effectiveness of different intervention policies. In this perspective we present the results achieved in real time during the unfolding of the epidemic and a posteriori analysis on travel related mitigation strategies and model validation. The second problem that we address is related to the epidemic spreading on evolving networked systems. In particular we analyze a detailed dataset of livestock movements in order to characterize the temporal correlations and the statistical properties governing the system. We then study an infectious disease spreading, in order to characterize the vulnerability of the system and to design novel control strategies. This work is an interdisciplinary approach that merges statistical physics techniques, complex and multiscale system analysis in the context of hosts mobility and computational epidemiology.


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<p>Ces dernières années, la puissance croissante des ordinateurs a permis a` la fois de rassembler une quantité sans précédent de données décrivant la société moderne et d’envisager des outils numériques capables de s’attaquer a` l’analyse et la modélisation les processus dynamiques qui se déroulent dans cette réalité complexe. Dans cette perspective, l’approche quantitative de la physique est un des catalyseurs de la croissance de nouveaux domaines interdisciplinaires visant a` la compréhension des systèmes complexes techno-sociaux. Dans cette thèse, nous présentons dans cette thèse un cadre théorique et numérique pour simuler des épidémies de maladies infectieuses émergentes dans des contextes réalistes. Dans ce but, nous utilisons le rôle crucial de la mobilité des agents dans la diffusion des maladies infectieuses et nous nous appuyons sur l’ étude des réseaux complexes pour gérer les ensembles de données à grande échelle décrivant les interconnexions de la population mondiale. En particulier, nous abordons deux différents probl`emes de sant ́e publique. Tout d’abord, nous consid ́erons la propagation d’une ́epid ́emie au niveau mondial, et pr ́esentons un mod`ele de mobilit ́e (GLEAM) conc ̧u pour simuler la propagation d’une maladie de type grippal a` l’ ́echelle globale, en int ́egrant des donn ́ees r ́eelles de mobilit ́e dans le monde entier. La derni`ere pand ́emie de grippe H1N1 2009 a d ́emontr ́e la n ́ecessit ́e de mod`eles math ́ematiques pour fournir des pr ́evisions ́epid ́emiques et ́evaluer l’efficacit ́e des politiques d’interventions. Dans cette perspective, nous pr ́esentons les r ́esultats obtenus en temps r ́eel pendant le d ́eroulement de l’ ́epid ́emie, ainsi qu’une analyse a posteriori portant sur les strat ́egies de lutte et sur la validation du mod`ele. Le deuxi`eme probl`eme que nous abordons est li ́e a` la propagation de l’ ́epid ́emie sur des syst`emes en r ́eseau d ́ependant du temps. En particulier, nous analysons des donn ́ees d ́ecrivant les mouvements du b ́etail en Italie afin de caract ́eriser les corr ́elations temporelles et les propri ́et ́es statistiques qui r ́egissent ce syst`eme. Nous étudions ensuite la propagation d’une maladie infectieuse, en vue de caractériser la vulnérabilité du syst`eme et de concevoir des strat ́egies de controˆle. Ce travail est une approche interdisciplinaire qui combine les techniques de la physique statistique et de l’analyse des syst`emes complexes dans le contexte de la mobilit ́e des agents et de l’ ́epid ́emiologie num ́erique.</p>
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