Insights from past millennia into climatic impacts on human health and survival
Identifieur interne : 000306 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000305; suivant : 000307Insights from past millennia into climatic impacts on human health and survival
Auteurs : Anthony J. McmichaelSource :
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [ 0027-8424 ] ; 2012.
Abstract
Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and survival via weather extremes and climatic impacts on food yields, fresh water, infectious diseases, conflict, and displacement. Paradoxically, these risks to health are neither widely nor fully recognized. Historical experiences of diverse societies experiencing climatic changes, spanning multicentury to single-year duration, provide insights into population health vulnerability—even though most climatic changes were considerably less than those anticipated this century and beyond. Historical experience indicates the following. (
Url:
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1120177109
PubMed: 22315419
PubMed Central: 3324023
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and survival via weather extremes and climatic impacts on food yields, fresh water, infectious diseases, conflict, and displacement. Paradoxically, these risks to health are neither widely nor fully recognized. Historical experiences of diverse societies experiencing climatic changes, spanning multicentury to single-year duration, provide insights into population health vulnerability—even though most climatic changes were considerably less than those anticipated this century and beyond. Historical experience indicates the following. (<italic>i</italic>
) Long-term climate changes have often destabilized civilizations, typically via food shortages, consequent hunger, disease, and unrest. (<italic>ii</italic>
) Medium-term climatic adversity has frequently caused similar health, social, and sometimes political consequences. (<italic>iii</italic>
) Infectious disease epidemics have often occurred in association with briefer episodes of temperature shifts, food shortages, impoverishment, and social disruption. (<italic>iv</italic>
) Societies have often learnt to cope (despite hardship for some groups) with recurring shorter-term (decadal to multiyear) regional climatic cycles (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation)—except when extreme phases occur. (<italic>v</italic>
) The drought–famine–starvation nexus has been the main, recurring, serious threat to health. Warming this century is not only likely to greatly exceed the Holocene's natural multidecadal temperature fluctuations but to occur faster. Along with greater climatic variability, models project an increased geographic range and severity of droughts. Modern societies, although larger, better resourced, and more interconnected than past societies, are less flexible, more infrastructure-dependent, densely populated, and hence are vulnerable. Adverse historical climate-related health experiences underscore the case for abating human-induced climate change.</p>
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<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1073/pnas.1120177109</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Biological Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Environmental Sciences</subject>
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<subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Physical Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Environmental Sciences</subject>
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<series-title>Inaugural Article</series-title>
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<title-group><article-title>Insights from past millennia into climatic impacts on human health and survival</article-title>
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<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>McMichael</surname>
<given-names>Anthony J.</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>1</sup>
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<aff id="aff1">National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health,<institution>Australian National University</institution>
, Canberra ACT 0200,<country>Australia</country>
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<author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><sup>1</sup>
E-mail: <email>tony.mcmichael@anu.edu.au</email>
.</corresp>
<fn fn-type="edited-by"><p>Contributed by Anthony J. McMichael, December 7, 2011 (sent for review September 10, 2011)</p>
</fn>
<fn fn-type="con"><p>Author contributions: A.J.M. reviewed the literature, analyzed data, and wrote the paper.</p>
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<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>27</day>
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<volume>109</volume>
<issue>13</issue>
<fpage>4730</fpage>
<lpage>4737</lpage>
<permissions><license license-type="open-access"><license-p>Freely available online through the PNAS open access policy.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:title="pdf" xlink:type="simple" xlink:href="pnas.201120177.pdf"></self-uri>
<abstract><p>Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and survival via weather extremes and climatic impacts on food yields, fresh water, infectious diseases, conflict, and displacement. Paradoxically, these risks to health are neither widely nor fully recognized. Historical experiences of diverse societies experiencing climatic changes, spanning multicentury to single-year duration, provide insights into population health vulnerability—even though most climatic changes were considerably less than those anticipated this century and beyond. Historical experience indicates the following. (<italic>i</italic>
) Long-term climate changes have often destabilized civilizations, typically via food shortages, consequent hunger, disease, and unrest. (<italic>ii</italic>
) Medium-term climatic adversity has frequently caused similar health, social, and sometimes political consequences. (<italic>iii</italic>
) Infectious disease epidemics have often occurred in association with briefer episodes of temperature shifts, food shortages, impoverishment, and social disruption. (<italic>iv</italic>
) Societies have often learnt to cope (despite hardship for some groups) with recurring shorter-term (decadal to multiyear) regional climatic cycles (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation)—except when extreme phases occur. (<italic>v</italic>
) The drought–famine–starvation nexus has been the main, recurring, serious threat to health. Warming this century is not only likely to greatly exceed the Holocene's natural multidecadal temperature fluctuations but to occur faster. Along with greater climatic variability, models project an increased geographic range and severity of droughts. Modern societies, although larger, better resourced, and more interconnected than past societies, are less flexible, more infrastructure-dependent, densely populated, and hence are vulnerable. Adverse historical climate-related health experiences underscore the case for abating human-induced climate change.</p>
</abstract>
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