Probabilistic differential diagnosis of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) using the time from immigration to illness onset among imported cases.
Identifieur interne : 001A92 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 001A91; suivant : 001A93Probabilistic differential diagnosis of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) using the time from immigration to illness onset among imported cases.
Auteurs : Keisuke Ejima [Japon] ; Kazuyuki Aihara [Japon] ; Hiroshi Nishiura [Japon]Source :
- Journal of theoretical biology [ 1095-8541 ] ; 2014.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Coronavirus, Diagnostic différentiel, Facteurs temps, Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Humains, Infections de l'appareil respiratoire (diagnostic), Infections de l'appareil respiratoire (épidémiologie), Infections à coronavirus (diagnostic), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Modèles biologiques, Moyen Orient, Probabilité, Émigration et immigration ().
- MESH :
- diagnostic : Infections de l'appareil respiratoire, Infections à coronavirus.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine, Infections de l'appareil respiratoire, Infections à coronavirus.
- Coronavirus, Diagnostic différentiel, Facteurs temps, Humains, Modèles biologiques, Moyen Orient, Probabilité, Émigration et immigration.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Coronavirus, Coronavirus Infections (diagnosis), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Diagnosis, Differential, Emigration and Immigration (statistics & numerical data), Humans, Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Middle East, Models, Biological, Probability, Respiratory Tract Infections (diagnosis), Respiratory Tract Infections (epidemiology), Time Factors.
- MESH :
- geographic : Middle East.
- diagnosis : Coronavirus Infections, Respiratory Tract Infections.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Influenza, Human, Respiratory Tract Infections.
- statistics & numerical data : Emigration and Immigration.
- Coronavirus, Diagnosis, Differential, Humans, Models, Biological, Probability, Time Factors.
Abstract
Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) has spread worldwide since 2012. As the clinical symptoms of MERS tend to be non-specific, the incubation period has been shown to complement differential diagnosis, especially to rule out influenza. However, because an infection event is seldom directly observable, the present study aims to construct a diagnostic model that predicts the probability of MERS diagnosis given the time from immigration to illness onset among imported cases which are suspected of MERS. Addressing censoring by considering the transmission dynamics in an exporting country, we demonstrate that the illness onset within 2 days from immigration is suggestive of influenza. Two exceptions to suspect MERS even for those with illness onset within 2 days since immigration are (i) when we observe substantial community transmissions of MERS and (ii) when the cases are at high risk of MERS (e.g. cases with close contact in hospital or household). It is vital to collect the information of the incubation period upon emergence of a novel infectious disease, and moreover, in our model, the fundamental transmission dynamics including the initial growth rate has to be explored to differentiate the disease diagnoses with non-specific symptoms.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2013.12.024
PubMed: 24406808
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As the clinical symptoms of MERS tend to be non-specific, the incubation period has been shown to complement differential diagnosis, especially to rule out influenza. However, because an infection event is seldom directly observable, the present study aims to construct a diagnostic model that predicts the probability of MERS diagnosis given the time from immigration to illness onset among imported cases which are suspected of MERS. Addressing censoring by considering the transmission dynamics in an exporting country, we demonstrate that the illness onset within 2 days from immigration is suggestive of influenza. Two exceptions to suspect MERS even for those with illness onset within 2 days since immigration are (i) when we observe substantial community transmissions of MERS and (ii) when the cases are at high risk of MERS (e.g. cases with close contact in hospital or household). It is vital to collect the information of the incubation period upon emergence of a novel infectious disease, and moreover, in our model, the fundamental transmission dynamics including the initial growth rate has to be explored to differentiate the disease diagnoses with non-specific symptoms. </div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">24406808</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2014</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>18</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>07</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1095-8541</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>346</Volume><PubDate><Year>2014</Year><Month>Apr</Month><Day>07</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Journal of theoretical biology</Title><ISOAbbreviation>J. Theor. Biol.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Probabilistic differential diagnosis of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) using the time from immigration to illness onset among imported cases.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>47-53</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.jtbi.2013.12.024</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S0022-5193(13)00589-4</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) has spread worldwide since 2012. As the clinical symptoms of MERS tend to be non-specific, the incubation period has been shown to complement differential diagnosis, especially to rule out influenza. However, because an infection event is seldom directly observable, the present study aims to construct a diagnostic model that predicts the probability of MERS diagnosis given the time from immigration to illness onset among imported cases which are suspected of MERS. Addressing censoring by considering the transmission dynamics in an exporting country, we demonstrate that the illness onset within 2 days from immigration is suggestive of influenza. Two exceptions to suspect MERS even for those with illness onset within 2 days since immigration are (i) when we observe substantial community transmissions of MERS and (ii) when the cases are at high risk of MERS (e.g. cases with close contact in hospital or household). It is vital to collect the information of the incubation period upon emergence of a novel infectious disease, and moreover, in our model, the fundamental transmission dynamics including the initial growth rate has to be explored to differentiate the disease diagnoses with non-specific symptoms. </AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ejima</LastName><ForeName>Keisuke</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Medical Building No. 3, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan; Department of Mathematical Informatics, Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Aihara</LastName><ForeName>Kazuyuki</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Mathematical Informatics, Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan; Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Nishiura</LastName><ForeName>Hiroshi</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Medical Building No. 3, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan; PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama, Japan. 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