Estimation of MERS-Coronavirus Reproductive Number and Case Fatality Rate for the Spring 2014 Saudi Arabia Outbreak: Insights from Publicly Available Data.
Identifieur interne : 001699 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 001698; suivant : 001700Estimation of MERS-Coronavirus Reproductive Number and Case Fatality Rate for the Spring 2014 Saudi Arabia Outbreak: Insights from Publicly Available Data.
Auteurs : Maimuna S. Majumder [États-Unis] ; Caitlin Rivers [États-Unis] ; Eric Lofgren [États-Unis] ; David Fisman [Canada]Source :
- PLoS currents [ 2157-3999 ] ; 2014.
Abstract
The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was initially recognized as a source of severe respiratory illness and renal failure in 2012. Prior to 2014, MERS-CoV was mostly associated with sporadic cases of human illness, of presumed zoonotic origin, though chains of person-to-person transmission in the healthcare setting were reported. In spring 2014, large healthcare-associated outbreaks of MERS-CoV infection occurred in Jeddah and Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To date the epidemiological information published by public health investigators in affected jurisdictions has been relatively limited. However, it is important that the global public health community have access to information on the basic epidemiological features of the outbreak to date, including the basic reproduction number (R0) and best estimates of case-fatality rates (CFR). We sought to address these gaps using a publicly available line listing of MERS-CoV cases.
DOI: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.98d2f8f3382d84f390736cd5f5fe133c
PubMed: 25685622
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Majumder</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rivers, Caitlin" sort="Rivers, Caitlin" uniqKey="Rivers C" first="Caitlin" last="Rivers">Caitlin Rivers</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lofgren, Eric" sort="Lofgren, Eric" uniqKey="Lofgren E" first="Eric" last="Lofgren">Eric Lofgren</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fisman, David" sort="Fisman, David" uniqKey="Fisman D" first="David" last="Fisman">David Fisman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2014">2014</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:25685622</idno><idno type="pmid">25685622</idno><idno type="doi">10.1371/currents.outbreaks.98d2f8f3382d84f390736cd5f5fe133c</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">001699</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">001699</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">001699</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">001699</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Estimation of MERS-Coronavirus Reproductive Number and Case Fatality Rate for the Spring 2014 Saudi Arabia Outbreak: Insights from Publicly Available Data.</title><author><name sortKey="Majumder, Maimuna S" sort="Majumder, Maimuna S" uniqKey="Majumder M" first="Maimuna S" last="Majumder">Maimuna S. Majumder</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rivers, Caitlin" sort="Rivers, Caitlin" uniqKey="Rivers C" first="Caitlin" last="Rivers">Caitlin Rivers</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lofgren, Eric" sort="Lofgren, Eric" uniqKey="Lofgren E" first="Eric" last="Lofgren">Eric Lofgren</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fisman, David" sort="Fisman, David" uniqKey="Fisman D" first="David" last="Fisman">David Fisman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS currents</title><idno type="eISSN">2157-3999</idno><imprint><date when="2014" type="published">2014</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was initially recognized as a source of severe respiratory illness and renal failure in 2012. Prior to 2014, MERS-CoV was mostly associated with sporadic cases of human illness, of presumed zoonotic origin, though chains of person-to-person transmission in the healthcare setting were reported. In spring 2014, large healthcare-associated outbreaks of MERS-CoV infection occurred in Jeddah and Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To date the epidemiological information published by public health investigators in affected jurisdictions has been relatively limited. However, it is important that the global public health community have access to information on the basic epidemiological features of the outbreak to date, including the basic reproduction number (R0) and best estimates of case-fatality rates (CFR). We sought to address these gaps using a publicly available line listing of MERS-CoV cases.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">25685622</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2015</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>16</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2018</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>13</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2157-3999</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>6</Volume><PubDate><Year>2014</Year><Month>Dec</Month><Day>18</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>PLoS currents</Title><ISOAbbreviation>PLoS Curr</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Estimation of MERS-Coronavirus Reproductive Number and Case Fatality Rate for the Spring 2014 Saudi Arabia Outbreak: Insights from Publicly Available Data.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1371/currents.outbreaks.98d2f8f3382d84f390736cd5f5fe133c</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">ecurrents.outbreaks.98d2f8f3382d84f390736cd5f5fe133c</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was initially recognized as a source of severe respiratory illness and renal failure in 2012. Prior to 2014, MERS-CoV was mostly associated with sporadic cases of human illness, of presumed zoonotic origin, though chains of person-to-person transmission in the healthcare setting were reported. In spring 2014, large healthcare-associated outbreaks of MERS-CoV infection occurred in Jeddah and Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To date the epidemiological information published by public health investigators in affected jurisdictions has been relatively limited. However, it is important that the global public health community have access to information on the basic epidemiological features of the outbreak to date, including the basic reproduction number (R0) and best estimates of case-fatality rates (CFR). We sought to address these gaps using a publicly available line listing of MERS-CoV cases.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">R0 was estimated using the incidence decay with exponential adjustment ("IDEA") method, while period-specific case fatality rates that incorporated non-attributed death data were estimated using Monte Carlo simulation.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">707 cases were available for evaluation. 52% of cases were identified as primary, with the rest being secondary. IDEA model fits suggested a higher R0 in Jeddah (3.5-6.7) than in Riyadh (2.0-2.8); control parameters suggested more rapid reduction in transmission in the former city than the latter. The model accurately projected final size and end date of the Riyadh outbreak based on information available prior to the outbreak peak; for Jeddah, these projections were possible once the outbreak peaked. Overall case-fatality was 40%; depending on the timing of 171 deaths unlinked to case data, outbreak CFR could be higher, lower, or equivalent to pre-outbreak CFR.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Notwithstanding imperfect data, inferences about MERS-CoV epidemiology important for public health preparedness are possible using publicly available data sources. The R0 estimated in Riyadh appears similar to that seen for SARS-CoV, but CFR appears higher, and indirect evidence suggests control activities ended these outbreaks. These data suggest this disease should be regarded with equal or greater concern than the related SARS-CoV.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Majumder</LastName><ForeName>Maimuna S</ForeName><Initials>MS</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Rivers</LastName><ForeName>Caitlin</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lofgren</LastName><ForeName>Eric</ForeName><Initials>E</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fisman</LastName><ForeName>David</ForeName><Initials>D</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2014</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>18</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>PLoS Curr</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101515638</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2157-3999</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2015</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>17</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2015</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>17</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2015</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>17</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">25685622</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1371/currents.outbreaks.98d2f8f3382d84f390736cd5f5fe133c</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC4322060</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>N Engl J Med. 2012 Nov 8;367 (19):1814-20</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23075143</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Annu Rev Public Health. 2004;25:99-117</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">15015914</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>PLoS One. 2013 Dec 31;8(12):e83622</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24391797</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>BMC Med. 2014 May 28;12:88</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24885692</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Science. 2003 Jun 20;300(5627):1966-70</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">12766207</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet. 2014 Jan 18;383(9913):189-90</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24439726</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Science. 2003 Jun 20;300(5627):1961-6</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">12766206</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet. 2013 Aug 24;382(9893):694-9</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23831141</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Euro Surveill. 2012 Oct 04;17(40):20290</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23078800</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet Infect Dis. 2014 Jan;14(1):50-6</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24239323</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>N Engl J Med. 2013 Aug 1;369(5):407-16</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23782161</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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