Risk of MERS importation and onward transmission: a systematic review and analysis of cases reported to WHO.
Identifieur interne : 000F91 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 000F90; suivant : 000F92Risk of MERS importation and onward transmission: a systematic review and analysis of cases reported to WHO.
Auteurs : Chiara Poletto [France] ; Pierre-Yves Boëlle [France] ; Vittoria Colizza [France]Source :
- BMC infectious diseases [ 1471-2334 ] ; 2016.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Middle East.
- mortality : Coronavirus Infections.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections.
- Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Infection Control, Models, Theoretical, Public Health, Risk Factors, World Health Organization.
Abstract
The continuing circulation of MERS in the Middle East makes the international dissemination of the disease a permanent threat. To inform risk assessment, we investigated the spatiotemporal pattern of MERS global dissemination and looked for factors explaining the heterogeneity observed in transmission events following importation.
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-016-1787-5
PubMed: 27562369
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Louis d'épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), 75012, Paris, France. chiara.poletto@inserm.fr.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), 75012, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Boelle, Pierre Yves" sort="Boelle, Pierre Yves" uniqKey="Boelle P" first="Pierre-Yves" last="Boëlle">Pierre-Yves Boëlle</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), 75012, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), 75012, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Colizza, Vittoria" sort="Colizza, Vittoria" uniqKey="Colizza V" first="Vittoria" last="Colizza">Vittoria Colizza</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), 75012, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), 75012, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">BMC infectious diseases</title><idno type="eISSN">1471-2334</idno><imprint><date when="2016" type="published">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (mortality)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Humans</term><term>Infection Control</term><term>Middle East (epidemiology)</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Public Health</term><term>Risk Factors</term><term>World Health Organization</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Facteurs de risque</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Humains</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (mortalité)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (transmission)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term><term>Lutte contre l'infection</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Moyen Orient (épidémiologie)</term><term>Organisation mondiale de la santé</term><term>Santé publique</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Middle East</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortalité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Moyen Orient</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Humans</term><term>Infection Control</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Public Health</term><term>Risk Factors</term><term>World Health Organization</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Facteurs de risque</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Humains</term><term>Lutte contre l'infection</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Organisation mondiale de la santé</term><term>Santé publique</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The continuing circulation of MERS in the Middle East makes the international dissemination of the disease a permanent threat. To inform risk assessment, we investigated the spatiotemporal pattern of MERS global dissemination and looked for factors explaining the heterogeneity observed in transmission events following importation.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" IndexingMethod="Curated" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">27562369</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2017</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>06</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2018</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>02</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1471-2334</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>16</Volume><Issue>1</Issue><PubDate><Year>2016</Year><Month>Aug</Month><Day>25</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>BMC infectious diseases</Title><ISOAbbreviation>BMC Infect. Dis.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Risk of MERS importation and onward transmission: a systematic review and analysis of cases reported to WHO.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>448</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1186/s12879-016-1787-5</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">The continuing circulation of MERS in the Middle East makes the international dissemination of the disease a permanent threat. To inform risk assessment, we investigated the spatiotemporal pattern of MERS global dissemination and looked for factors explaining the heterogeneity observed in transmission events following importation.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">We reviewed imported MERS cases worldwide up to July 2015. We modelled importations in time based on air travel combined with incidence in Middle East. We used the detailed history of MERS case management after importation (time to hospitalization and isolation, number of hospitals visited,…) in logistic regression to identify risk factors for secondary transmission. We assessed changes in time to hospitalization and isolation in relation to collective and public health attention to the epidemic, measured by three indicators (Google Trends, ProMED-mail, Disease Outbreak News).</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">Modelled importation events were found to reproduce both the temporal and geographical structure of those observed - the Pearson correlation coefficient between predicted and observed monthly time series was large (r = 0.78, p < 10(-4)). The risk of secondary transmission following importation increased with the time to case isolation or death (OR = 1.7 p = 0.04) and more precisely with the duration of hospitalization (OR = 1.7, p = 0.02). The average daily number of secondary cases was 0.02 [0.0,0.12] in the community and 0.20 [0.03,9.0] in the hospital. Time from hospitalisation to isolation decreased in periods of high public health attention (2.33 ± 0.34 vs. 6.44 ± 0.97 days during baseline attention).</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Countries at risk of importation should focus their resources on strict infection control measures for the management of potential cases in healthcare settings and on prompt MERS cases identification. Individual and collective awareness are key to substantially improve such preparedness.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Poletto</LastName><ForeName>Chiara</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), 75012, Paris, France. chiara.poletto@inserm.fr.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Boëlle</LastName><ForeName>Pierre-Yves</ForeName><Initials>PY</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), 75012, Paris, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Colizza</LastName><ForeName>Vittoria</ForeName><Initials>V</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), 75012, Paris, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, via Alassio 11/c, 10126, Torino, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D016454">Review</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D000078182">Systematic Review</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2016</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>25</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>BMC Infect Dis</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>100968551</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1471-2334</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName 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