Estimating the risk of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) death during the course of the outbreak in the Republic of Korea, 2015.
Identifieur interne : 001506 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 001505; suivant : 001507Estimating the risk of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) death during the course of the outbreak in the Republic of Korea, 2015.
Auteurs : Kenji Mizumoto ; Masaya Saitoh ; Gerardo Chowell ; Yuichiro Miyamatsu ; Hiroshi NishiuraSource :
- International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases [ 1878-3511 ] ; 2015.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Republic of Korea.
- mortality : Coronavirus Infections.
- Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Middle Aged, Risk.
Abstract
A large cluster of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) linked to healthcare setting occurred from May to July 2015 in the Republic of Korea. The present study aimed to estimate the case fatality ratio (CFR) by appropriately taking into account the time delay from illness onset to death. We then compare our estimate against previously published values of the CFR for MERS, i.e., 20% and 40%.
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2015.08.005
PubMed: 26275845
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Estimating the risk of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) death during the course of the outbreak in the Republic of Korea, 2015.</title><author><name sortKey="Mizumoto, Kenji" sort="Mizumoto, Kenji" uniqKey="Mizumoto K" first="Kenji" last="Mizumoto">Kenji Mizumoto</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 3-8-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 1538902, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Saitoh, Masaya" sort="Saitoh, Masaya" uniqKey="Saitoh M" first="Masaya" last="Saitoh">Masaya Saitoh</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan; CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Miyamatsu, Yuichiro" sort="Miyamatsu, Yuichiro" uniqKey="Miyamatsu Y" first="Yuichiro" last="Miyamatsu">Yuichiro Miyamatsu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan; CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan; CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan. Electronic address: nishiurah@m.u-tokyo.ac.jp.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2015">2015</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:26275845</idno><idno type="pmid">26275845</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.ijid.2015.08.005</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">001506</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">001506</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Estimating the risk of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) death during the course of the outbreak in the Republic of Korea, 2015.</title><author><name sortKey="Mizumoto, Kenji" sort="Mizumoto, Kenji" uniqKey="Mizumoto K" first="Kenji" last="Mizumoto">Kenji Mizumoto</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 3-8-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 1538902, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Saitoh, Masaya" sort="Saitoh, Masaya" uniqKey="Saitoh M" first="Masaya" last="Saitoh">Masaya Saitoh</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan; CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Miyamatsu, Yuichiro" sort="Miyamatsu, Yuichiro" uniqKey="Miyamatsu Y" first="Yuichiro" last="Miyamatsu">Yuichiro Miyamatsu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan; CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan; CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan. Electronic address: nishiurah@m.u-tokyo.ac.jp.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases</title><idno type="eISSN">1878-3511</idno><imprint><date when="2015" type="published">2015</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (mortality)</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Humans</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Republic of Korea (epidemiology)</term><term>Risk</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Republic of Korea</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Humans</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Risk</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">A large cluster of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) linked to healthcare setting occurred from May to July 2015 in the Republic of Korea. The present study aimed to estimate the case fatality ratio (CFR) by appropriately taking into account the time delay from illness onset to death. We then compare our estimate against previously published values of the CFR for MERS, i.e., 20% and 40%.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" IndexingMethod="Curated" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">26275845</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2016</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>16</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>07</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1878-3511</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>39</Volume><PubDate><Year>2015</Year><Month>Oct</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Int. J. Infect. Dis.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Estimating the risk of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) death during the course of the outbreak in the Republic of Korea, 2015.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>7-9</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.ijid.2015.08.005</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S1201-9712(15)00200-3</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="OBJECTIVES" NlmCategory="OBJECTIVE">A large cluster of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) linked to healthcare setting occurred from May to July 2015 in the Republic of Korea. The present study aimed to estimate the case fatality ratio (CFR) by appropriately taking into account the time delay from illness onset to death. We then compare our estimate against previously published values of the CFR for MERS, i.e., 20% and 40%.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">Dates of illness onset and death of the MERS outbreak in the Republic of Korea were extracted from secondary data sources. Using the known distribution of time from illness onset to death and an integral equation model, we estimated the delay-adjusted risk of MERS death for the South Korean cluster.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">Our most up-to-date estimate of CFR for the MERS outbreak in South Korea was estimated at 20.0% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 14.6, 26.2). During the course of the outbreak, estimate of the CFR in real time appeared to have decreased and become significantly lower than 40%.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">The risk of MERS death in Korea was consistent with published CFR. The estimate decreased with time perhaps due to time-dependent increase in case ascertainment. Crude ratio of cumulative deaths to cases underestimates the actual risk of MERS death because of time delay from illness onset to death.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Mizumoto</LastName><ForeName>Kenji</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 3-8-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 1538902, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Saitoh</LastName><ForeName>Masaya</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan; CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chowell</LastName><ForeName>Gerardo</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Miyamatsu</LastName><ForeName>Yuichiro</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan; CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Nishiura</LastName><ForeName>Hiroshi</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan; CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan. Electronic address: nishiurah@m.u-tokyo.ac.jp.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>BB/M008894/1</GrantID><Agency>Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council</Agency><Country>United Kingdom</Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D052061">Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013486">Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013487">Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2015</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>11</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Canada</Country><MedlineTA>Int J Infect Dis</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>9610933</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1201-9712</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="Y">mortality</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D004196" MajorTopicYN="Y">Disease Outbreaks</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008875" MajorTopicYN="N">Middle Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D056910" MajorTopicYN="N">Republic of Korea</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012306" 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