Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis.
Identifieur interne : 000158 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000157; suivant : 000159Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis.
Auteurs : Shu Yang ; Peihua Cao ; Peipei Du ; Ziting Wu ; Zian Zhuang ; Lin Yang ; Xuan Yu ; Qi Zhou ; Xixi Feng ; Xiaohui Wang ; Weiguo Li ; Enmei Liu ; Ju Chen ; Yaolong Chen ; Daihai HeSource :
- Annals of translational medicine [ 2305-5839 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2], named COVID-19, hit a major city of China, Wuhan in December 2019 and subsequently spread to other provinces/regions of China and overseas. Several studies have been done to estimate the basic reproduction number in the early phase of this outbreak, yet there are no reliable estimates of case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 to date.
DOI: 10.21037/atm.2020.02.66
PubMed: 32175421
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis.</title><author><name sortKey="Yang, Shu" sort="Yang, Shu" uniqKey="Yang S" first="Shu" last="Yang">Shu Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cao, Peihua" sort="Cao, Peihua" uniqKey="Cao P" first="Peihua" last="Cao">Peihua Cao</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clinical Research Center, Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510280, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Du, Peipei" sort="Du, Peipei" uniqKey="Du P" first="Peipei" last="Du">Peipei Du</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu 610500, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Ziting" sort="Wu, Ziting" uniqKey="Wu Z" first="Ziting" last="Wu">Ziting Wu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhuang, Zian" sort="Zhuang, Zian" uniqKey="Zhuang Z" first="Zian" last="Zhuang">Zian Zhuang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Lin" sort="Yang, Lin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lin" last="Yang">Lin Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Xuan" sort="Yu, Xuan" uniqKey="Yu X" first="Xuan" last="Yu">Xuan Yu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhou, Qi" sort="Zhou, Qi" uniqKey="Zhou Q" first="Qi" last="Zhou">Qi Zhou</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The First Clinical Medical College of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Feng, Xixi" sort="Feng, Xixi" uniqKey="Feng X" first="Xixi" last="Feng">Xixi Feng</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu 610500, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Xiaohui" sort="Wang, Xiaohui" uniqKey="Wang X" first="Xiaohui" last="Wang">Xiaohui Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Weiguo" sort="Li, Weiguo" uniqKey="Li W" first="Weiguo" last="Li">Weiguo Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Respiratory, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400014, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, Enmei" sort="Liu, Enmei" uniqKey="Liu E" first="Enmei" last="Liu">Enmei Liu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Respiratory, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400014, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Ju" sort="Chen, Ju" uniqKey="Chen J" first="Ju" last="Chen">Ju Chen</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Yaolong" sort="Chen, Yaolong" uniqKey="Chen Y" first="Yaolong" last="Chen">Yaolong Chen</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32175421</idno><idno type="pmid">32175421</idno><idno type="doi">10.21037/atm.2020.02.66</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000158</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000158</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis.</title><author><name sortKey="Yang, Shu" sort="Yang, Shu" uniqKey="Yang S" first="Shu" last="Yang">Shu Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cao, Peihua" sort="Cao, Peihua" uniqKey="Cao P" first="Peihua" last="Cao">Peihua Cao</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clinical Research Center, Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510280, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Du, Peipei" sort="Du, Peipei" uniqKey="Du P" first="Peipei" last="Du">Peipei Du</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu 610500, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Ziting" sort="Wu, Ziting" uniqKey="Wu Z" first="Ziting" last="Wu">Ziting Wu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhuang, Zian" sort="Zhuang, Zian" uniqKey="Zhuang Z" first="Zian" last="Zhuang">Zian Zhuang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Lin" sort="Yang, Lin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lin" last="Yang">Lin Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Xuan" sort="Yu, Xuan" uniqKey="Yu X" first="Xuan" last="Yu">Xuan Yu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhou, Qi" sort="Zhou, Qi" uniqKey="Zhou Q" first="Qi" last="Zhou">Qi Zhou</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The First Clinical Medical College of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Feng, Xixi" sort="Feng, Xixi" uniqKey="Feng X" first="Xixi" last="Feng">Xixi Feng</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu 610500, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Xiaohui" sort="Wang, Xiaohui" uniqKey="Wang X" first="Xiaohui" last="Wang">Xiaohui Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Weiguo" sort="Li, Weiguo" uniqKey="Li W" first="Weiguo" last="Li">Weiguo Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Respiratory, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400014, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, Enmei" sort="Liu, Enmei" uniqKey="Liu E" first="Enmei" last="Liu">Enmei Liu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Respiratory, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400014, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Ju" sort="Chen, Ju" uniqKey="Chen J" first="Ju" last="Chen">Ju Chen</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Yaolong" sort="Chen, Yaolong" uniqKey="Chen Y" first="Yaolong" last="Chen">Yaolong Chen</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Annals of translational medicine</title><idno type="ISSN">2305-5839</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2], named COVID-19, hit a major city of China, Wuhan in December 2019 and subsequently spread to other provinces/regions of China and overseas. Several studies have been done to estimate the basic reproduction number in the early phase of this outbreak, yet there are no reliable estimates of case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 to date.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32175421</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>19</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">2305-5839</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>8</Volume><Issue>4</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Feb</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Annals of translational medicine</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Ann Transl Med</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>128</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.21037/atm.2020.02.66</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="Background" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2], named COVID-19, hit a major city of China, Wuhan in December 2019 and subsequently spread to other provinces/regions of China and overseas. Several studies have been done to estimate the basic reproduction number in the early phase of this outbreak, yet there are no reliable estimates of case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 to date.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Methods" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">In this study, we used a purely data-driven statistical method to estimate the CFR in the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak. Daily numbers of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths were collected from January 10 to February 3, 2020 and divided into three clusters: Wuhan city, other cities of Hubei province, and other provinces of mainland China. Simple linear regression model was applied to estimate the CFR from each cluster.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Results" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">We estimated that CFR during the first weeks of the epidemic ranges from 0.15% (95% CI: 0.12-0.18%) in mainland China excluding Hubei through 1.41% (95% CI: 1.38-1.45%) in Hubei province excluding the city of Wuhan to 5.25% (95% CI: 4.98-5.51%) in Wuhan.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Conclusions" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">Our early estimates suggest that the CFR of COVID-19 is lower than the previous coronavirus epidemics caused by SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV).</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>2020 Annals of Translational Medicine. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yang</LastName><ForeName>Shu</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Digital Institute of Medicine, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cao</LastName><ForeName>Peihua</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Clinical Research Center, Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510280, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Du</LastName><ForeName>Peipei</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu 610500, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wu</LastName><ForeName>Ziting</ForeName><Initials>Z</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhuang</LastName><ForeName>Zian</ForeName><Initials>Z</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yang</LastName><ForeName>Lin</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yu</LastName><ForeName>Xuan</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhou</LastName><ForeName>Qi</ForeName><Initials>Q</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The First Clinical Medical College of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Feng</LastName><ForeName>Xixi</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu 610500, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wang</LastName><ForeName>Xiaohui</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Li</LastName><ForeName>Weiguo</ForeName><Initials>W</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Respiratory, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400014, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics, Chongqing 400014, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Liu</LastName><ForeName>Enmei</ForeName><Initials>E</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Respiratory, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400014, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics, Chongqing 400014, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chen</LastName><ForeName>Ju</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chen</LastName><ForeName>Yaolong</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>WHO Collaborating Centre for Guideline Implementation and Knowledge Translation, Lanzhou 730000, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>GIN (Guidelines International Network) Asia, Lanzhou 730000, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Key Laboratory of Evidence Based Medicine and Knowledge Translation of Gansu Province, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>He</LastName><ForeName>Daihai</ForeName><Initials>D</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>China</Country><MedlineTA>Ann Transl Med</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101617978</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2305-5839</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">2019 novel coronavirus</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">case fatality rate (CFR)</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)</Keyword></KeywordList><CoiStatement>Conflicts of Interest: The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>17</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>17</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>17</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32175421</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.21037/atm.2020.02.66</ArticleId><ArticleId 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