A Bayesian approach for detecting a disease that is not being modeled
Identifieur interne : 001055 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 001054; suivant : 001056A Bayesian approach for detecting a disease that is not being modeled
Auteurs : John M. Aronis [États-Unis] ; Jeffrey P. Ferraro [États-Unis] ; Per H. Gesteland [États-Unis] ; Fuchiang Tsui [États-Unis] ; Ye Ye [États-Unis] ; Michael M. Wagner [États-Unis] ; Gregory F. Cooper [États-Unis]Source :
- PLoS ONE [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Over the past decade, outbreaks of new or reemergent viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) virus, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) virus, and Zika have claimed thousands of lives and cost governments and healthcare systems billions of dollars. Because the appearance of new or transformed diseases is likely to continue, the detection and characterization of emergent diseases is an important problem. We describe a Bayesian statistical model that can detect and characterize previously unknown and unmodeled diseases from patient-care reports and evaluate its performance on historical data.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229658
PubMed: 32109254
PubMed Central: 7048291
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Ferraro</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gesteland, Per H" sort="Gesteland, Per H" uniqKey="Gesteland P" first="Per H." last="Gesteland">Per H. Gesteland</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tsui, Fuchiang" sort="Tsui, Fuchiang" uniqKey="Tsui F" first="Fuchiang" last="Tsui">Fuchiang Tsui</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>Real-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Real-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ye, Ye" sort="Ye, Ye" uniqKey="Ye Y" first="Ye" last="Ye">Ye Ye</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>Real-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Real-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wagner, Michael M" sort="Wagner, Michael M" uniqKey="Wagner M" first="Michael M." last="Wagner">Michael M. 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Aronis</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>Real-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Real-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ferraro, Jeffrey P" sort="Ferraro, Jeffrey P" uniqKey="Ferraro J" first="Jeffrey P." last="Ferraro">Jeffrey P. Ferraro</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gesteland, Per H" sort="Gesteland, Per H" uniqKey="Gesteland P" first="Per H." last="Gesteland">Per H. Gesteland</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tsui, Fuchiang" sort="Tsui, Fuchiang" uniqKey="Tsui F" first="Fuchiang" last="Tsui">Fuchiang Tsui</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>Real-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Real-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ye, Ye" sort="Ye, Ye" uniqKey="Ye Y" first="Ye" last="Ye">Ye Ye</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>Real-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Real-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wagner, Michael M" sort="Wagner, Michael M" uniqKey="Wagner M" first="Michael M." last="Wagner">Michael M. Wagner</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>Real-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Real-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cooper, Gregory F" sort="Cooper, Gregory F" uniqKey="Cooper G" first="Gregory F." last="Cooper">Gregory F. Cooper</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>Real-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Real-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS ONE</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Over the past decade, outbreaks of new or reemergent viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) virus, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) virus, and Zika have claimed thousands of lives and cost governments and healthcare systems billions of dollars. Because the appearance of new or transformed diseases is likely to continue, the detection and characterization of emergent diseases is an important problem. We describe a Bayesian statistical model that can detect and characterize previously unknown and unmodeled diseases from patient-care reports and evaluate its performance on historical data.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Metcalf, Cje" uniqKey="Metcalf C">CJE Metcalf</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lessler, J" uniqKey="Lessler J">J Lessler</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Holmes, Ec" uniqKey="Holmes E">EC Holmes</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rambaut, A" uniqKey="Rambaut A">A Rambaut</name></author><author><name sortKey="Andersen, Kg" uniqKey="Andersen K">KG Andersen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Dato, V" uniqKey="Dato V">V Dato</name></author><author><name sortKey="Shephard, R" uniqKey="Shephard R">R Shephard</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wagner, Mm" uniqKey="Wagner M">MM Wagner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wagner, Mm" uniqKey="Wagner M">MM Wagner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Moore, Aw" uniqKey="Moore A">AW Moore</name></author><author><name sortKey="Aryel, Rm" uniqKey="Aryel R">RM Aryel</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wagner, Mm" uniqKey="Wagner M">MM Wagner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gresham, Ls" uniqKey="Gresham L">LS Gresham</name></author><author><name sortKey="Dato, V" uniqKey="Dato V">V Dato</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wagner, Mm" uniqKey="Wagner M">MM Wagner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Moore, Aw" uniqKey="Moore A">AW Moore</name></author><author><name sortKey="Aryel, Rm" uniqKey="Aryel R">RM Aryel</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Velikina, R" uniqKey="Velikina R">R Velikina</name></author><author><name sortKey="Dato, V" uniqKey="Dato V">V Dato</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wagner, Mm" uniqKey="Wagner M">MM Wagner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wagner, Mm" uniqKey="Wagner M">MM Wagner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Moore, Aw" uniqKey="Moore A">AW Moore</name></author><author><name sortKey="Aryel, Rm" uniqKey="Aryel R">RM Aryel</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wagner, Mm" uniqKey="Wagner M">MM Wagner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hogan, Wr" uniqKey="Hogan W">WR Hogan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Aryel, Rm" uniqKey="Aryel R">RM Aryel</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wagner, Mm" uniqKey="Wagner M">MM Wagner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Moore, Aw" uniqKey="Moore A">AW Moore</name></author><author><name sortKey="Aryel, Rm" uniqKey="Aryel R">RM Aryel</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Brokopp, C" uniqKey="Brokopp C">C Brokopp</name></author><author><name sortKey="Resultan, E" uniqKey="Resultan E">E Resultan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Holmes, H" uniqKey="Holmes H">H Holmes</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wagner, Mm" uniqKey="Wagner M">MM Wagner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wagner, Mm" uniqKey="Wagner M">MM Wagner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Moore, Aw" uniqKey="Moore A">AW Moore</name></author><author><name sortKey="Aryel, Rm" uniqKey="Aryel R">RM Aryel</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wong, Wk" uniqKey="Wong W">WK Wong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Moore, Aw" uniqKey="Moore A">AW Moore</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wagner, Mm" uniqKey="Wagner M">MM Wagner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Moore, Aw" uniqKey="Moore A">AW Moore</name></author><author><name sortKey="Aryel, Rm" uniqKey="Aryel R">RM Aryel</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Moore, Aw" uniqKey="Moore A">AW Moore</name></author><author><name sortKey="Anderson, B" uniqKey="Anderson B">B Anderson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Das, K" uniqKey="Das K">K Das</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wong, Wk" uniqKey="Wong W">WK Wong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wagner, Mm" uniqKey="Wagner M">MM Wagner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Moore, Aw" uniqKey="Moore A">AW Moore</name></author><author><name sortKey="Aryel, Rm" uniqKey="Aryel R">RM Aryel</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cooper, Gf" uniqKey="Cooper G">GF Cooper</name></author><author><name sortKey="Villamarin, R" uniqKey="Villamarin R">R Villamarin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tsui, Fcr" uniqKey="Tsui F">FCR Tsui</name></author><author><name sortKey="Millett, N" uniqKey="Millett N">N Millett</name></author><author><name sortKey="Espino, Ju" uniqKey="Espino J">JU Espino</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wagner, Mm" uniqKey="Wagner M">MM Wagner</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Aliabadi, N" uniqKey="Aliabadi N">N Aliabadi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Messacar, K" uniqKey="Messacar K">K Messacar</name></author><author><name sortKey="Pastula, Dm" uniqKey="Pastula D">DM Pastula</name></author><author><name sortKey="Robinson, Cc" uniqKey="Robinson C">CC Robinson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leshem, E" uniqKey="Leshem E">E Leshem</name></author><author><name sortKey="Sejvar, J" uniqKey="Sejvar J">J Sejvar</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">PLoS One</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">PLoS ONE</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">plos</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">plosone</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>PLoS ONE</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1932-6203</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Public Library of Science</publisher-name><publisher-loc>San Francisco, CA USA</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">32109254</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7048291</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">PONE-D-19-24937</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0229658</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Epidemiology</subject></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Infectious Diseases</subject><subj-group><subject>Viral Diseases</subject><subj-group><subject>Influenza</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Critical Care and Emergency Medicine</subject></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Biology and Life Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Physiology</subject><subj-group><subject>Physiological Processes</subject><subj-group><subject>Coughing</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Physiology</subject><subj-group><subject>Physiological Processes</subject><subj-group><subject>Coughing</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Diagnostic Medicine</subject><subj-group><subject>Signs and Symptoms</subject><subj-group><subject>Coughing</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Pathology and Laboratory Medicine</subject><subj-group><subject>Signs and Symptoms</subject><subj-group><subject>Coughing</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Infectious Diseases</subject><subj-group><subject>Viral Diseases</subject><subj-group><subject>SARS</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Engineering and Technology</subject><subj-group><subject>Equipment</subject><subj-group><subject>Measurement Equipment</subject><subj-group><subject>Thermometers</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Diagnostic Medicine</subject><subj-group><subject>Signs and Symptoms</subject><subj-group><subject>Fevers</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Pathology and Laboratory Medicine</subject><subj-group><subject>Signs and Symptoms</subject><subj-group><subject>Fevers</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Health Care</subject></subj-group></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>A Bayesian approach for detecting a disease that is not being modeled</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="running-head">A Bayesian approach for detecting a disease that is not being modeled</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" equal-contrib="yes"><contrib-id authenticated="true" contrib-id-type="orcid">http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5821-3672</contrib-id><name><surname>Aronis</surname><given-names>John M.</given-names></name><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Conceptualization</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Investigation</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Methodology</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Software</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Validation</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Writing – original draft</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Writing – review & editing</role><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff001"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor001">*</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Ferraro</surname><given-names>Jeffrey P.</given-names></name><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Data curation</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Investigation</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Writing – review & editing</role><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff002"><sup>2</sup></xref><xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="econtrib001"><sup>‡</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Gesteland</surname><given-names>Per H.</given-names></name><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Data curation</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Investigation</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Writing – review & editing</role><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff002"><sup>2</sup></xref><xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="econtrib001"><sup>‡</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Tsui</surname><given-names>Fuchiang</given-names></name><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Conceptualization</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Data curation</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Writing – review & editing</role><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff001"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="econtrib001"><sup>‡</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Ye</surname><given-names>Ye</given-names></name><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Data curation</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Writing – review & editing</role><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff001"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="econtrib001"><sup>‡</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wagner</surname><given-names>Michael M.</given-names></name><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Conceptualization</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Data curation</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Funding acquisition</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Investigation</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Methodology</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Project administration</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Writing – review & editing</role><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff001"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="econtrib001"><sup>‡</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" equal-contrib="yes"><name><surname>Cooper</surname><given-names>Gregory F.</given-names></name><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Conceptualization</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Formal analysis</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Investigation</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Methodology</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Supervision</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Writing – original draft</role><role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Writing – review & editing</role><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff001"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff001"><label>1</label><addr-line>Real-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff002"><label>2</label><addr-line>Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States of America</addr-line></aff><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="editor"><name><surname>d’Onofrio</surname><given-names>Alberto</given-names></name><role>Editor</role><xref ref-type="aff" rid="edit1"></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="edit1"><addr-line>International Prevention Research Institute, FRANCE</addr-line></aff><author-notes><fn fn-type="COI-statement" id="coi001"><p><bold>Competing Interests: </bold>The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.</p></fn><fn fn-type="other" id="econtrib001"><p>‡These authors also contributed equally to this work.</p></fn><corresp id="cor001">* E-mail: <email>jma18@pitt.edu</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2020</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day><month>2</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><volume>15</volume><issue>2</issue><elocation-id>e0229658</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>4</day><month>9</month><year>2019</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>12</day><month>2</month><year>2020</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2020 Aronis et al</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Aronis et al</copyright-holder><license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><license-p>This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution License</ext-link>, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:href="pone.0229658.pdf"></self-uri><abstract><p>Over the past decade, outbreaks of new or reemergent viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) virus, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) virus, and Zika have claimed thousands of lives and cost governments and healthcare systems billions of dollars. Because the appearance of new or transformed diseases is likely to continue, the detection and characterization of emergent diseases is an important problem. We describe a Bayesian statistical model that can detect and characterize previously unknown and unmodeled diseases from patient-care reports and evaluate its performance on historical data.</p></abstract><funding-group><award-group id="award001"><funding-source><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="funder-id">http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000002</institution-id><institution>National Institutes of Health</institution></institution-wrap></funding-source><award-id>R01 LM011370</award-id><principal-award-recipient><name><surname>Wagner</surname><given-names>Michael M.</given-names></name></principal-award-recipient></award-group><award-group id="award002"><funding-source><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="funder-id">http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000057</institution-id><institution>National Institute of General Medical Sciences</institution></institution-wrap></funding-source><award-id>1U24GM110707</award-id><principal-award-recipient><name><surname>Wagner</surname><given-names>Michael M.</given-names></name></principal-award-recipient></award-group><funding-statement>MMW was supported by R01 LM011370, National Institutes of Health, nih.gov, Probabilistic Disease Surveillance; and 1U24GM110707, National Institute of General Medical Sciences, nigms.nih.gov, Modeling Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.</funding-statement></funding-group><counts><fig-count count="6"></fig-count><table-count count="1"></table-count><page-count count="15"></page-count></counts><custom-meta-group><custom-meta id="data-availability"><meta-name>Data Availability</meta-name><meta-value>Patient records were used in this work and cannot be shared publicly to maintain patient confidentiality. The data for this study may be requested from the third-party data owner (Intermountain Healthcare) via the Institutional Review Board at the University of Pittsburgh (<email>IRB@imail.org</email>). Access may be granted on a case-by-case basis to researchers who meet the necessary criteria.</meta-value></custom-meta></custom-meta-group></article-meta><notes><title>Data Availability</title><p>Patient records were used in this work and cannot be shared publicly to maintain patient confidentiality. The data for this study may be requested from the third-party data owner (Intermountain Healthcare) via the Institutional Review Board at the University of Pittsburgh (<email>IRB@imail.org</email>). Access may be granted on a case-by-case basis to researchers who meet the necessary criteria.</p></notes></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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