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Spatial modelling of contribution of individual level risk factors for mortality from Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Arabian Peninsula

Identifieur interne : 001032 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 001031; suivant : 001033

Spatial modelling of contribution of individual level risk factors for mortality from Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Arabian Peninsula

Auteurs : Oyelola A. Adegboye [Qatar] ; Ezra Gayawan [Nigeria] ; Fahad Hanna [Qatar]

Source :

RBID : PMC:5536289

Abstract

Background

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus is a contagious respiratory pathogen that is contracted via close contact with an infected subject. Transmission of the pathogen has occurred through animal-to-human contact at first followed by human-to-human contact within families and health care facilities.

Data and methods

This study is based on a retrospective analysis of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia between June 2012 and July 2015. A Geoadditive variable model for binary outcomes was applied to account for both individual level risk factors as well spatial variation via a fully Bayesian approach.

Results

Out of 959 confirmed cases, 642 (67%) were males and 317 (33%) had died. Three hundred and sixty four (38%) cases occurred in Ar Riyad province, while 325 (34%) cases occurred in Makkah. Individuals with some comorbidity had a significantly higher likelihood of dying from MERS-CoV compared with those who did not suffer comorbidity [Odds ratio (OR) = 2.071; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.307, 3.263]. Health-care workers were significantly less likely to die from the disease compared with non-health workers [OR = 0.372, 95% CI: 0.151, 0.827]. Patients who had fatal clinical experience and those with clinical and subclinical experiences were equally less likely to die from the disease compared with patients who did not have fatal clinical experience and those without clinical and subclinical experiences respectively. The odds of dying from the disease was found to increase as age increased beyond 25 years and was much higher for individuals with any underlying comorbidities.

Conclusion

Interventions to minimize mortality from the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus should particularly focus individuals with comorbidity, non-health-care workers, patients with no clinical fatal experience, and patients without any clinical and subclinical experiences.


Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0181215
PubMed: 28759623
PubMed Central: 5536289

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PMC:5536289

Le document en format XML

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<title>Background</title>
<p>Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus is a contagious respiratory pathogen that is contracted via close contact with an infected subject. Transmission of the pathogen has occurred through animal-to-human contact at first followed by human-to-human contact within families and health care facilities.</p>
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<p>This study is based on a retrospective analysis of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia between June 2012 and July 2015. A Geoadditive variable model for binary outcomes was applied to account for both individual level risk factors as well spatial variation via a fully Bayesian approach.</p>
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<p>Out of 959 confirmed cases, 642 (67%) were males and 317 (33%) had died. Three hundred and sixty four (38%) cases occurred in Ar Riyad province, while 325 (34%) cases occurred in Makkah. Individuals with some comorbidity had a significantly higher likelihood of dying from MERS-CoV compared with those who did not suffer comorbidity [Odds ratio (OR) = 2.071; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.307, 3.263]. Health-care workers were significantly less likely to die from the disease compared with non-health workers [OR = 0.372, 95% CI: 0.151, 0.827]. Patients who had fatal clinical experience and those with clinical and subclinical experiences were equally less likely to die from the disease compared with patients who did not have fatal clinical experience and those without clinical and subclinical experiences respectively. The odds of dying from the disease was found to increase as age increased beyond 25 years and was much higher for individuals with any underlying comorbidities.</p>
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<p>Interventions to minimize mortality from the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus should particularly focus individuals with comorbidity, non-health-care workers, patients with no clinical fatal experience, and patients without any clinical and subclinical experiences.</p>
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<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0181215</article-id>
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<article-title>Spatial modelling of contribution of individual level risk factors for mortality from Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Arabian Peninsula</article-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="running-head">Risk of mortality from Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus</alt-title>
</title-group>
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<name>
<surname>Adegboye</surname>
<given-names>Oyelola A.</given-names>
</name>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Conceptualization</role>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Data curation</role>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Formal analysis</role>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Methodology</role>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Resources</role>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Software</role>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Validation</role>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Visualization</role>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Writing – original draft</role>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Writing – review & editing</role>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff001">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Gayawan</surname>
<given-names>Ezra</given-names>
</name>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Data curation</role>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Formal analysis</role>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Investigation</role>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Software</role>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Writing – original draft</role>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff002">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<contrib-id authenticated="true" contrib-id-type="orcid">http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0494-9585</contrib-id>
<name>
<surname>Hanna</surname>
<given-names>Fahad</given-names>
</name>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Conceptualization</role>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Formal analysis</role>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Methodology</role>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Validation</role>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Visualization</role>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Writing – original draft</role>
<role content-type="http://credit.casrai.org/">Writing – review & editing</role>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff003">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor001">*</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="aff001">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, 2713 Doha, Qatar</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff002">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff003">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Qatar University, 2713 Doha, Qatar</addr-line>
</aff>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="editor">
<name>
<surname>Khatab</surname>
<given-names>Khaled</given-names>
</name>
<role>Editor</role>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="edit1"></xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="edit1">
<addr-line>UNITED KINGDOM</addr-line>
</aff>
<author-notes>
<fn fn-type="COI-statement" id="coi001">
<p>
<bold>Competing Interests: </bold>
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.</p>
</fn>
<corresp id="cor001">* E-mail:
<email>fhanna@qu.edu.qa</email>
</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="collection">
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>31</day>
<month>7</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>12</volume>
<issue>7</issue>
<elocation-id>e0181215</elocation-id>
<history>
<date date-type="received">
<day>3</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2016</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted">
<day>28</day>
<month>6</month>
<year>2017</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>© 2017 Adegboye et al</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2017</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder>Adegboye et al</copyright-holder>
<license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
<license-p>This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the
<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution License</ext-link>
, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:href="pone.0181215.pdf"></self-uri>
<abstract>
<sec id="sec001">
<title>Background</title>
<p>Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus is a contagious respiratory pathogen that is contracted via close contact with an infected subject. Transmission of the pathogen has occurred through animal-to-human contact at first followed by human-to-human contact within families and health care facilities.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec002">
<title>Data and methods</title>
<p>This study is based on a retrospective analysis of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia between June 2012 and July 2015. A Geoadditive variable model for binary outcomes was applied to account for both individual level risk factors as well spatial variation via a fully Bayesian approach.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec003">
<title>Results</title>
<p>Out of 959 confirmed cases, 642 (67%) were males and 317 (33%) had died. Three hundred and sixty four (38%) cases occurred in Ar Riyad province, while 325 (34%) cases occurred in Makkah. Individuals with some comorbidity had a significantly higher likelihood of dying from MERS-CoV compared with those who did not suffer comorbidity [Odds ratio (OR) = 2.071; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.307, 3.263]. Health-care workers were significantly less likely to die from the disease compared with non-health workers [OR = 0.372, 95% CI: 0.151, 0.827]. Patients who had fatal clinical experience and those with clinical and subclinical experiences were equally less likely to die from the disease compared with patients who did not have fatal clinical experience and those without clinical and subclinical experiences respectively. The odds of dying from the disease was found to increase as age increased beyond 25 years and was much higher for individuals with any underlying comorbidities.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec004">
<title>Conclusion</title>
<p>Interventions to minimize mortality from the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus should particularly focus individuals with comorbidity, non-health-care workers, patients with no clinical fatal experience, and patients without any clinical and subclinical experiences.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>
<funding-group>
<funding-statement>The authors recieved no specific funding for this work. All data analyzed in this study were publicly available.</funding-statement>
</funding-group>
<counts>
<fig-count count="4"></fig-count>
<table-count count="2"></table-count>
<page-count count="15"></page-count>
</counts>
<custom-meta-group>
<custom-meta id="data-availability">
<meta-name>Data Availability</meta-name>
<meta-value>Data are made publicly available by Dr. Andrew Rambaut from
<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://epidemic.bio.ed.ac.uk/coronavirus_background">http://epidemic.bio.ed.ac.uk/coronavirus_background</ext-link>
.</meta-value>
</custom-meta>
</custom-meta-group>
</article-meta>
<notes>
<title>Data Availability</title>
<p>Data are made publicly available by Dr. Andrew Rambaut from
<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://epidemic.bio.ed.ac.uk/coronavirus_background">http://epidemic.bio.ed.ac.uk/coronavirus_background</ext-link>
.</p>
</notes>
</front>
</pmc>
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