Temporal dynamics of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Arabian Peninsula, 2012–2017
Identifieur interne : 000C54 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000C53; suivant : 000C55Temporal dynamics of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Arabian Peninsula, 2012–2017
Auteurs : M. A. Alkhamis [Koweït, États-Unis] ; A. Fernández-Fontelo [Espagne] ; K. Vanderwaal [États-Unis] ; S. Abuhadida [Koweït] ; P. Puig [Espagne] ; A. Alba-Casals [États-Unis, Espagne]Source :
- Epidemiology and Infection [ 0950-2688 ] ; 2018.
Abstract
Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) remains a notable disease and poses a significant threat to global public health. The Arabian Peninsula is considered a major global epicentre for the disease and the virus has crossed regional and continental boundaries since 2012. In this study, we focused on exploring the temporal dynamics of MERS-CoV in human populations in the Arabian Peninsula between 2012 and 2017, using publicly available data on case counts and combining two analytical methods. Disease progression was assessed by quantifying the time-dependent reproductive number (TD-Rs), while case series temporal pattern was modelled using the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). We accounted for geographical variability between three major affected regions in Saudi Arabia including Eastern Province, Riyadh and Makkah. In Saudi Arabia, the epidemic size was large with TD-Rs >1, indicating significant spread until 2017. In both Makkah and Riyadh regions, the epidemic progression reached its peak in April 2014 (TD-Rs > 7), during the highest incidence period of MERS-CoV cases. In Eastern Province, one unique super-spreading event (TD-R > 10) was identified in May 2013, which comprised of the most notable cases of human-to-human transmission. Best-fitting ARIMA model inferred statistically significant biannual seasonality in Riyadh region, a region characterised by heavy seasonal camel-related activities. However, no statistical evidence of seasonality was identified in Eastern Province and Makkah. Instead, both areas were marked by an endemic pattern of cases with sporadic outbreaks. Our study suggested new insights into the epidemiology of the virus, including inferences about epidemic progression and evidence for seasonality. Despite the inherent limitations of the available data, our conclusions provide further guidance to currently implement risk-based surveillance in high-risk populations and, subsequently, improve related interventions strategies against the epidemic at country and regional levels.
Url:
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268818002728
PubMed: 30293534
PubMed Central: 6518552
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Pmc, to step Corpus: Pour aller vers cette notice dans l'étape Curation :000C54
Links to Exploration step
PMC:6518552Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Temporal dynamics of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Arabian Peninsula, 2012–2017</title>
<author><name sortKey="Alkhamis, M A" sort="Alkhamis, M A" uniqKey="Alkhamis M" first="M. A." last="Alkhamis">M. A. Alkhamis</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics</addr-line>
,<institution>Faculty of Public Health, Health Sciences Center, Kuwait University Kuwait</institution>
,<addr-line>Khaldiya</addr-line>
,<country>Kuwait</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Koweït</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Department of Veterinary Population Medicine</addr-line>
,<institution>College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota</institution>
,<addr-line>St. Paul</addr-line>
,<country>USA</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fernandez Fontelo, A" sort="Fernandez Fontelo, A" uniqKey="Fernandez Fontelo A" first="A." last="Fernández-Fontelo">A. Fernández-Fontelo</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><addr-line>Departament de Matemàtiques</addr-line>
,<institution>Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès</institution>
,<addr-line>Barcelona</addr-line>
,<country>Spain</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Espagne</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Vanderwaal, K" sort="Vanderwaal, K" uniqKey="Vanderwaal K" first="K." last="Vanderwaal">K. Vanderwaal</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Department of Veterinary Population Medicine</addr-line>
,<institution>College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota</institution>
,<addr-line>St. Paul</addr-line>
,<country>USA</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Abuhadida, S" sort="Abuhadida, S" uniqKey="Abuhadida S" first="S." last="Abuhadida">S. Abuhadida</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4"><addr-line>Health Planning and Follow-up Department</addr-line>
,<institution>Assistant Undersecretary Office of Quality and Development, Ministry of Health</institution>
,<addr-line>Kuwait City</addr-line>
,<country>Kuwait</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Koweït</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Puig, P" sort="Puig, P" uniqKey="Puig P" first="P." last="Puig">P. Puig</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><addr-line>Departament de Matemàtiques</addr-line>
,<institution>Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès</institution>
,<addr-line>Barcelona</addr-line>
,<country>Spain</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Espagne</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Alba Casals, A" sort="Alba Casals, A" uniqKey="Alba Casals A" first="A." last="Alba-Casals">A. Alba-Casals</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Department of Veterinary Population Medicine</addr-line>
,<institution>College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota</institution>
,<addr-line>St. Paul</addr-line>
,<country>USA</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5"><institution>IRTA, Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA, IRTA-UAB), Campus de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona</institution>
,<addr-line>08193, Bellaterra, Barcelona</addr-line>
,<country>Spain</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Espagne</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno>
<idno type="pmid">30293534</idno>
<idno type="pmc">6518552</idno>
<idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6518552</idno>
<idno type="RBID">PMC:6518552</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1017/S0950268818002728</idno>
<date when="2018">2018</date>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000C54</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000C54</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000C54</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000C54</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Temporal dynamics of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Arabian Peninsula, 2012–2017</title>
<author><name sortKey="Alkhamis, M A" sort="Alkhamis, M A" uniqKey="Alkhamis M" first="M. A." last="Alkhamis">M. A. Alkhamis</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics</addr-line>
,<institution>Faculty of Public Health, Health Sciences Center, Kuwait University Kuwait</institution>
,<addr-line>Khaldiya</addr-line>
,<country>Kuwait</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Koweït</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Department of Veterinary Population Medicine</addr-line>
,<institution>College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota</institution>
,<addr-line>St. Paul</addr-line>
,<country>USA</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fernandez Fontelo, A" sort="Fernandez Fontelo, A" uniqKey="Fernandez Fontelo A" first="A." last="Fernández-Fontelo">A. Fernández-Fontelo</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><addr-line>Departament de Matemàtiques</addr-line>
,<institution>Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès</institution>
,<addr-line>Barcelona</addr-line>
,<country>Spain</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Espagne</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Vanderwaal, K" sort="Vanderwaal, K" uniqKey="Vanderwaal K" first="K." last="Vanderwaal">K. Vanderwaal</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Department of Veterinary Population Medicine</addr-line>
,<institution>College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota</institution>
,<addr-line>St. Paul</addr-line>
,<country>USA</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Abuhadida, S" sort="Abuhadida, S" uniqKey="Abuhadida S" first="S." last="Abuhadida">S. Abuhadida</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4"><addr-line>Health Planning and Follow-up Department</addr-line>
,<institution>Assistant Undersecretary Office of Quality and Development, Ministry of Health</institution>
,<addr-line>Kuwait City</addr-line>
,<country>Kuwait</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Koweït</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Puig, P" sort="Puig, P" uniqKey="Puig P" first="P." last="Puig">P. Puig</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><addr-line>Departament de Matemàtiques</addr-line>
,<institution>Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès</institution>
,<addr-line>Barcelona</addr-line>
,<country>Spain</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Espagne</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Alba Casals, A" sort="Alba Casals, A" uniqKey="Alba Casals A" first="A." last="Alba-Casals">A. Alba-Casals</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Department of Veterinary Population Medicine</addr-line>
,<institution>College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota</institution>
,<addr-line>St. Paul</addr-line>
,<country>USA</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5"><institution>IRTA, Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA, IRTA-UAB), Campus de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona</institution>
,<addr-line>08193, Bellaterra, Barcelona</addr-line>
,<country>Spain</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Espagne</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Epidemiology and Infection</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0950-2688</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1469-4409</idno>
<imprint><date when="2018">2018</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) remains a notable disease and poses a significant threat to global public health. The Arabian Peninsula is considered a major global epicentre for the disease and the virus has crossed regional and continental boundaries since 2012. In this study, we focused on exploring the temporal dynamics of MERS-CoV in human populations in the Arabian Peninsula between 2012 and 2017, using publicly available data on case counts and combining two analytical methods. Disease progression was assessed by quantifying the time-dependent reproductive number (TD-Rs), while case series temporal pattern was modelled using the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). We accounted for geographical variability between three major affected regions in Saudi Arabia including Eastern Province, Riyadh and Makkah. In Saudi Arabia, the epidemic size was large with TD-Rs >1, indicating significant spread until 2017. In both Makkah and Riyadh regions, the epidemic progression reached its peak in April 2014 (TD-Rs > 7), during the highest incidence period of MERS-CoV cases. In Eastern Province, one unique super-spreading event (TD-R > 10) was identified in May 2013, which comprised of the most notable cases of human-to-human transmission. Best-fitting ARIMA model inferred statistically significant biannual seasonality in Riyadh region, a region characterised by heavy seasonal camel-related activities. However, no statistical evidence of seasonality was identified in Eastern Province and Makkah. Instead, both areas were marked by an endemic pattern of cases with sporadic outbreaks. Our study suggested new insights into the epidemiology of the virus, including inferences about epidemic progression and evidence for seasonality. Despite the inherent limitations of the available data, our conclusions provide further guidance to currently implement risk-based surveillance in high-risk populations and, subsequently, improve related interventions strategies against the epidemic at country and regional levels.</p>
</div>
</front>
<back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bialek, Sr" uniqKey="Bialek S">SR Bialek</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zumla, A" uniqKey="Zumla A">A Zumla</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Azhar, Ei" uniqKey="Azhar E">EI Azhar</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Alraddadi, Bm" uniqKey="Alraddadi B">BM Alraddadi</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lau, Sk" uniqKey="Lau S">SK Lau</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Du, L" uniqKey="Du L">L Du</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Han, Gz" uniqKey="Han G">GZ Han</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Assiri, A" uniqKey="Assiri A">A Assiri</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Majumder, Ms" uniqKey="Majumder M">MS Majumder</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zaki, Am" uniqKey="Zaki A">AM Zaki</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Al Tawfiq, Ja" uniqKey="Al Tawfiq J">JA Al-Tawfiq</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Shehata, Mm" uniqKey="Shehata M">MM Shehata</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Fagbo, Sf" uniqKey="Fagbo S">SF Fagbo</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S Cauchemez</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Mohd, Ha" uniqKey="Mohd H">HA Mohd</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Banik, Gr" uniqKey="Banik G">GR Banik</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Majumder, Ms" uniqKey="Majumder M">MS Majumder</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Poletto, C" uniqKey="Poletto C">C Poletto</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Colizza, V" uniqKey="Colizza V">V Colizza</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Boelle, P Y" uniqKey="Boelle P">P-Y Boëlle</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Nah, K" uniqKey="Nah K">K Nah</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Dietz, K" uniqKey="Dietz K">K Dietz</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Breban, R" uniqKey="Breban R">R Breban</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Riou, J" uniqKey="Riou J">J Riou</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fontanet, A" uniqKey="Fontanet A">A Fontanet</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Jornet Sanz, M" uniqKey="Jornet Sanz M">M Jornet-Sanz</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Fernandez Fontelo, A" uniqKey="Fernandez Fontelo A">A Fernandez-Fontelo</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J">J Wallinga</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Teunis, P" uniqKey="Teunis P">P Teunis</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Obadia, T" uniqKey="Obadia T">T Obadia</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Haneef, R" uniqKey="Haneef R">R Haneef</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Boelle, Py" uniqKey="Boelle P">PY Boelle</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Haydon, Dt" uniqKey="Haydon D">DT Haydon</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Alba, A" uniqKey="Alba A">A Alba</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Song, X" uniqKey="Song X">X Song</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Brockwell, Pj" uniqKey="Brockwell P">PJ Brockwell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Davis, Ra" uniqKey="Davis R">RA Davis</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hemida, Mg" uniqKey="Hemida M">MG Hemida</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Perera, Ra" uniqKey="Perera R">RA Perera</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Memish, Za" uniqKey="Memish Z">ZA Memish</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Meyer, B" uniqKey="Meyer B">B Meyer</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Nowotny, N" uniqKey="Nowotny N">N Nowotny</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kolodziejek, J" uniqKey="Kolodziejek J">J Kolodziejek</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Raj, Vs" uniqKey="Raj V">VS Raj</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Corman, Vm" uniqKey="Corman V">VM Corman</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Al Johani, S" uniqKey="Al Johani S">S Al Johani</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hajeer, Ah" uniqKey="Hajeer A">AH Hajeer</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Madani, Ta" uniqKey="Madani T">TA Madani</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Althaqafi, Ao" uniqKey="Althaqafi A">AO Althaqafi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Alraddadi, Bm" uniqKey="Alraddadi B">BM Alraddadi</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Memish, Za" uniqKey="Memish Z">ZA Memish</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Eifan, Sa" uniqKey="Eifan S">SA Eifan</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Dudas, G" uniqKey="Dudas G">G Dudas</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hemida, Mg" uniqKey="Hemida M">MG Hemida</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Khalaf, S" uniqKey="Khalaf S">S Khalaf</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Alqahtani, As" uniqKey="Alqahtani A">AS Alqahtani</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Williams, Jr" uniqKey="Williams J">JR Williams</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S Cauchemez</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Muller, Ma" uniqKey="Muller M">MA Muller</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
</listBibl>
</div1>
</back>
</TEI>
<pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Epidemiol Infect</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Epidemiol. Infect</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">HYG</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>Epidemiology and Infection</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="ppub">0950-2688</issn>
<issn pub-type="epub">1469-4409</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Cambridge University Press</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Cambridge, UK</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">30293534</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">6518552</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1017/S0950268818002728</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pii">S0950268818002728</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">00272</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Original Paper</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>Temporal dynamics of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Arabian Peninsula, 2012–2017</article-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="left-running">M. A. Alkhamis <italic>et al.</italic>
</alt-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="right-running"><italic>Epidemiology and Infection</italic>
</alt-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="false">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6451-5247</contrib-id>
<name><surname>Alkhamis</surname>
<given-names>M. A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"></xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Fernández-Fontelo</surname>
<given-names>A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">3</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>VanderWaal</surname>
<given-names>K.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Abuhadida</surname>
<given-names>S.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">4</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Puig</surname>
<given-names>P.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">3</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Alba-Casals</surname>
<given-names>A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">5</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="aff1"><label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics</addr-line>
,<institution>Faculty of Public Health, Health Sciences Center, Kuwait University Kuwait</institution>
,<addr-line>Khaldiya</addr-line>
,<country>Kuwait</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2"><label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Veterinary Population Medicine</addr-line>
,<institution>College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota</institution>
,<addr-line>St. Paul</addr-line>
,<country>USA</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3"><label>3</label>
<addr-line>Departament de Matemàtiques</addr-line>
,<institution>Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès</institution>
,<addr-line>Barcelona</addr-line>
,<country>Spain</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4"><label>4</label>
<addr-line>Health Planning and Follow-up Department</addr-line>
,<institution>Assistant Undersecretary Office of Quality and Development, Ministry of Health</institution>
,<addr-line>Kuwait City</addr-line>
,<country>Kuwait</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5"><label>5</label>
<institution>IRTA, Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA, IRTA-UAB), Campus de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona</institution>
,<addr-line>08193, Bellaterra, Barcelona</addr-line>
,<country>Spain</country>
</aff>
<author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><bold>Author for correspondence</bold>
: M. A. Alkhamis, E-mail: <email>malkahmi@umn.edu</email>
</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>8</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>147</volume>
<elocation-id>e21</elocation-id>
<history><date date-type="received"><day>14</day>
<month>6</month>
<year>2018</year>
</date>
<date date-type="rev-recd"><day>22</day>
<month>8</month>
<year>2018</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>13</day>
<month>9</month>
<year>2018</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>© The Author(s) 2018</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2018</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder>The Author(s)</copyright-holder>
<license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><license-p><pmc-comment>CREATIVE COMMONS</pmc-comment>
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link>
), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:title="pdf" xlink:href="S0950268818002728a.pdf"></self-uri>
<abstract abstract-type="normal"><p>Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) remains a notable disease and poses a significant threat to global public health. The Arabian Peninsula is considered a major global epicentre for the disease and the virus has crossed regional and continental boundaries since 2012. In this study, we focused on exploring the temporal dynamics of MERS-CoV in human populations in the Arabian Peninsula between 2012 and 2017, using publicly available data on case counts and combining two analytical methods. Disease progression was assessed by quantifying the time-dependent reproductive number (TD-Rs), while case series temporal pattern was modelled using the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). We accounted for geographical variability between three major affected regions in Saudi Arabia including Eastern Province, Riyadh and Makkah. In Saudi Arabia, the epidemic size was large with TD-Rs >1, indicating significant spread until 2017. In both Makkah and Riyadh regions, the epidemic progression reached its peak in April 2014 (TD-Rs > 7), during the highest incidence period of MERS-CoV cases. In Eastern Province, one unique super-spreading event (TD-R > 10) was identified in May 2013, which comprised of the most notable cases of human-to-human transmission. Best-fitting ARIMA model inferred statistically significant biannual seasonality in Riyadh region, a region characterised by heavy seasonal camel-related activities. However, no statistical evidence of seasonality was identified in Eastern Province and Makkah. Instead, both areas were marked by an endemic pattern of cases with sporadic outbreaks. Our study suggested new insights into the epidemiology of the virus, including inferences about epidemic progression and evidence for seasonality. Despite the inherent limitations of the available data, our conclusions provide further guidance to currently implement risk-based surveillance in high-risk populations and, subsequently, improve related interventions strategies against the epidemic at country and regional levels.</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group><title>Key words</title>
<kwd>ARIMA modelling</kwd>
<kwd>MERS-CoV</kwd>
<kwd>seasonality</kwd>
<kwd>surveillance</kwd>
<kwd>time-dependent reproductive number</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<counts><fig-count count="3"></fig-count>
<table-count count="2"></table-count>
<equation-count count="2"></equation-count>
<ref-count count="52"></ref-count>
<page-count count="10"></page-count>
</counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
</pmc>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/MersV1/Data/Pmc/Curation
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000C54 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Pmc/Curation/biblio.hfd -nk 000C54 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Sante |area= MersV1 |flux= Pmc |étape= Curation |type= RBID |clé= PMC:6518552 |texte= Temporal dynamics of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Arabian Peninsula, 2012–2017 }}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Pmc/Curation/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:30293534" \ | HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Pmc/Curation/biblio.hfd \ | NlmPubMed2Wicri -a MersV1
![]() | This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. | ![]() |