Estimating the risk of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) death during the course of the outbreak in the Republic of Korea, 2015
Identifieur interne : 000703 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000702; suivant : 000704Estimating the risk of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) death during the course of the outbreak in the Republic of Korea, 2015
Auteurs : Kenji Mizumoto [Japon] ; Masaya Saitoh [Japon] ; Gerardo Chowell [États-Unis] ; Yuichiro Miyamatsu [Japon] ; Hiroshi Nishiura [Japon]Source :
- International Journal of Infectious Diseases [ 1201-9712 ] ; 2015.
Abstract
A large cluster of MERS was observed from May to July 2015 in the Republic of Korea. Accounting for the time delay from illness onset to death, the risk of MERS death was estimated. The estimated CFR in Korea was consistent with 20%, one of published estimates among secondary cases. The estimated CFR decreased with time, perhaps due to increased case ascertainment during the course of outbreak.
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DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2015.08.005
PubMed: 26275845
PubMed Central: 7110731
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Masaya" uniqKey="Saitoh M" first="Masaya" last="Saitoh">Masaya Saitoh</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0015">CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0020">School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Miyamatsu, Yuichiro" sort="Miyamatsu, Yuichiro" uniqKey="Miyamatsu Y" first="Yuichiro" last="Miyamatsu">Yuichiro Miyamatsu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0015">CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0015">CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">International Journal of Infectious Diseases</title><idno type="ISSN">1201-9712</idno><idno type="eISSN">1878-3511</idno><imprint><date when="2015">2015</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Highlights</title><p><list list-type="simple" id="lis0005"><list-item id="lsti0005"><label>•</label><p id="par0005">A large cluster of MERS was observed from May to July 2015 in the Republic of Korea.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0010"><label>•</label><p id="par0010">Accounting for the time delay from illness onset to death, the risk of MERS death was estimated.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0015"><label>•</label><p id="par0015">The estimated CFR in Korea was consistent with 20%, one of published estimates among secondary cases.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0020"><label>•</label><p id="par0020">The estimated CFR decreased with time, perhaps due to increased case ascertainment during the course of outbreak.</p></list-item></list></p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Dyer, O" uniqKey="Dyer O">O. Dyer</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hui, D S" uniqKey="Hui D">D.S. Hui</name></author><author><name sortKey="Perlman, S" uniqKey="Perlman S">S. Perlman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zumla, A" uniqKey="Zumla A">A. Zumla</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ghani, A C" uniqKey="Ghani A">A.C. Ghani</name></author><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, C A" uniqKey="Donnelly C">C.A. Donnelly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cox, D R" uniqKey="Cox D">D.R. Cox</name></author><author><name sortKey="Griffin, J T" uniqKey="Griffin J">J.T. Griffin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C. Fraser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lam, T H" uniqKey="Lam T">T.H. Lam</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Kucharski, A J" uniqKey="Kucharski A">A.J. Kucharski</name></author><author><name sortKey="Edmunds, W J" uniqKey="Edmunds W">W.J. Edmunds</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wong, J Y" uniqKey="Wong J">J.Y. Wong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, P" uniqKey="Wu P">P. Wu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H">H. Nishiura</name></author><author><name sortKey="Goldstein, E" uniqKey="Goldstein E">E. Goldstein</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lau, E H" uniqKey="Lau E">E.H. Lau</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, L" uniqKey="Yang L">L. Yang</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S. Cauchemez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C. 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Heesterbeek</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Garske, T" uniqKey="Garske T">T. Garske</name></author><author><name sortKey="Legrand, J" uniqKey="Legrand J">J. Legrand</name></author><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, C A" uniqKey="Donnelly C">C.A. Donnelly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ward, H" uniqKey="Ward H">H. Ward</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S. Cauchemez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C. Fraser</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Assiri, A" uniqKey="Assiri A">A. Assiri</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mcgeer, A" uniqKey="Mcgeer A">A. McGeer</name></author><author><name sortKey="Perl, T M" uniqKey="Perl T">T.M. Perl</name></author><author><name sortKey="Price, C S" uniqKey="Price C">C.S. Price</name></author><author><name sortKey="Al Rabeeah, A A" uniqKey="Al Rabeeah A">A.A. 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Int J Infect Dis</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Int. J. Infect. Dis</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>International Journal of Infectious Diseases</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1201-9712</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1878-3511</issn><publisher><publisher-name>The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">26275845</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7110731</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S1201-9712(15)00200-3</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.ijid.2015.08.005</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Estimating the risk of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) death during the course of the outbreak in the Republic of Korea, 2015</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0005"><name><surname>Mizumoto</surname><given-names>Kenji</given-names></name><xref rid="aff0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0010"><name><surname>Saitoh</surname><given-names>Masaya</given-names></name><xref rid="aff0010" ref-type="aff">b</xref><xref rid="aff0015" ref-type="aff">c</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0015"><name><surname>Chowell</surname><given-names>Gerardo</given-names></name><xref rid="aff0020" ref-type="aff">d</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0020"><name><surname>Miyamatsu</surname><given-names>Yuichiro</given-names></name><xref rid="aff0010" ref-type="aff">b</xref><xref rid="aff0015" ref-type="aff">c</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0025"><name><surname>Nishiura</surname><given-names>Hiroshi</given-names></name><email>nishiurah@m.u-tokyo.ac.jp</email><xref rid="aff0010" ref-type="aff">b</xref><xref rid="aff0015" ref-type="aff">c</xref><xref rid="cor0005" ref-type="corresp">⁎</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff0005"><label>a</label>Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 3-8-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 1538902, Japan</aff><aff id="aff0010"><label>b</label>Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan</aff><aff id="aff0015"><label>c</label>CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan</aff><aff id="aff0020"><label>d</label>School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA</aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor0005"><label>⁎</label>Corresponding author. Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan. Tel.: +81 3 5841 3688; fax: +81 3 5841 3637. <email>nishiurah@m.u-tokyo.ac.jp</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>11</day><month>8</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on .</pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>10</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>11</day><month>8</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><volume>39</volume><fpage>7</fpage><lpage>9</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>18</day><month>6</month><year>2015</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>31</day><month>7</month><year>2015</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>4</day><month>8</month><year>2015</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2015 The Authors</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2015</copyright-year><license><license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract abstract-type="author-highlights" id="abs0005"><title>Highlights</title><p><list list-type="simple" id="lis0005"><list-item id="lsti0005"><label>•</label><p id="par0005">A large cluster of MERS was observed from May to July 2015 in the Republic of Korea.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0010"><label>•</label><p id="par0010">Accounting for the time delay from illness onset to death, the risk of MERS death was estimated.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0015"><label>•</label><p id="par0015">The estimated CFR in Korea was consistent with 20%, one of published estimates among secondary cases.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0020"><label>•</label><p id="par0020">The estimated CFR decreased with time, perhaps due to increased case ascertainment during the course of outbreak.</p></list-item></list></p></abstract><abstract id="abs0010"><title>Summary</title><sec><title>Objectives</title><p>A large cluster of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) linked to healthcare setting occurred from May to July 2015 in the Republic of Korea. The present study aimed to estimate the case fatality ratio (CFR) by appropriately taking into account the time delay from illness onset to death. We then compare our estimate against previously published values of the CFR for MERS, i.e., 20% and 40%.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>Dates of illness onset and death of the MERS outbreak in the Republic of Korea were extracted from secondary data sources. Using the known distribution of time from illness onset to death and an integral equation model, we estimated the delay-adjusted risk of MERS death for the South Korean cluster.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Our most up-to-date estimate of CFR for the MERS outbreak in South Korea was estimated at 20.0% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 14.6, 26.2). During the course of the outbreak, estimate of the CFR in real time appeared to have decreased and become significantly lower than 40%.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>The risk of MERS death in Korea was consistent with published CFR. The estimate decreased with time perhaps due to time-dependent increase in case ascertainment. Crude ratio of cumulative deaths to cases underestimates the actual risk of MERS death because of time delay from illness onset to death.</p></sec></abstract><kwd-group id="kwd0005"><title>Keywords</title><kwd>MERS</kwd><kwd>epidemic</kwd><kwd>case fatality ratio</kwd><kwd>statistical estimation</kwd><kwd>Korea</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta><notes><p id="misc0005"><bold>Corresponding Editor:</bold> Eskild Petersen, Aarhus, Denmark.</p></notes></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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