Comparison of incubation period distribution of human infections with MERS-CoV in South Korea and Saudi Arabia
Identifieur interne : 000437 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000436; suivant : 000438Comparison of incubation period distribution of human infections with MERS-CoV in South Korea and Saudi Arabia
Auteurs : Victor Virlogeux ; Vicky J. Fang ; Minah Park ; Joseph T. Wu ; Benjamin J. CowlingSource :
- Scientific Reports [ 2045-2322 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
The incubation period is an important epidemiologic distribution, it is often incorporated in case definitions, used to determine appropriate quarantine periods, and is an input to mathematical modeling studies. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS) is an emerging infectious disease in the Arabian Peninsula. There was a large outbreak of MERS in South Korea in 2015. We examined the incubation period distribution of MERS coronavirus infection for cases in South Korea and in Saudi Arabia. Using parametric and nonparametric methods, we estimated a mean incubation period of 6.9 days (95% credibility interval: 6.3–7.5) for cases in South Korea and 5.0 days (95% credibility interval: 4.0–6.6) among cases in Saudi Arabia. In a log-linear regression model, the mean incubation period was 1.42 times longer (95% credibility interval: 1.18–1.71) among cases in South Korea compared to Saudi Arabia. The variation that we identified in the incubation period distribution between locations could be associated with differences in ascertainment or reporting of exposure dates and illness onset dates, differences in the source or mode of infection, or environmental differences.
Url:
DOI: 10.1038/srep35839
PubMed: 27775012
PubMed Central: 5075793
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Victor Virlogeux<affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff3"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.462282.8</institution-id>
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<permissions><copyright-statement>© The Author(s) 2016</copyright-statement>
<license license-type="OpenAccess"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link>
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<abstract id="Abs1"><p>The incubation period is an important epidemiologic distribution, it is often incorporated in case definitions, used to determine appropriate quarantine periods, and is an input to mathematical modeling studies. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS) is an emerging infectious disease in the Arabian Peninsula. There was a large outbreak of MERS in South Korea in 2015. We examined the incubation period distribution of MERS coronavirus infection for cases in South Korea and in Saudi Arabia. Using parametric and nonparametric methods, we estimated a mean incubation period of 6.9 days (95% credibility interval: 6.3–7.5) for cases in South Korea and 5.0 days (95% credibility interval: 4.0–6.6) among cases in Saudi Arabia. In a log-linear regression model, the mean incubation period was 1.42 times longer (95% credibility interval: 1.18–1.71) among cases in South Korea compared to Saudi Arabia. The variation that we identified in the incubation period distribution between locations could be associated with differences in ascertainment or reporting of exposure dates and illness onset dates, differences in the source or mode of infection, or environmental differences.</p>
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<kwd-group kwd-group-type="npg-subject"><title>Subject terms</title>
<kwd>Viral infection</kwd>
<kwd>Epidemiology</kwd>
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