Serveur d'exploration MERS

Attention, ce site est en cours de développement !
Attention, site généré par des moyens informatiques à partir de corpus bruts.
Les informations ne sont donc pas validées.
***** Acces problem to record *****\

Identifieur interne : 0008110 ( Pmc/Corpus ); précédent : 0008109; suivant : 0008111 ***** probable Xml problem with record *****

Links to Exploration step


Le document en format XML

<record>
<TEI>
<teiHeader>
<fileDesc>
<titleStmt>
<title xml:lang="en">Assessing the pandemic potential of MERS-CoV</title>
<author>
<name sortKey="Bauch, Chris T" sort="Bauch, Chris T" uniqKey="Bauch C" first="Chris T" last="Bauch">Chris T. Bauch</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Oraby, Tamer" sort="Oraby, Tamer" uniqKey="Oraby T" first="Tamer" last="Oraby">Tamer Oraby</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt>
<idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno>
<idno type="pmid">23831143</idno>
<idno type="pmc">7137078</idno>
<idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7137078</idno>
<idno type="RBID">PMC:7137078</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61504-4</idno>
<date when="2013">2013</date>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000811</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000811</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc>
<biblStruct>
<analytic>
<title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Assessing the pandemic potential of MERS-CoV</title>
<author>
<name sortKey="Bauch, Chris T" sort="Bauch, Chris T" uniqKey="Bauch C" first="Chris T" last="Bauch">Chris T. Bauch</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Oraby, Tamer" sort="Oraby, Tamer" uniqKey="Oraby T" first="Tamer" last="Oraby">Tamer Oraby</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series>
<title level="j">Lancet (London, England)</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0140-6736</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1474-547X</idno>
<imprint>
<date when="2013">2013</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc>
<textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<back>
<div1 type="bibliography">
<listBibl>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct>
<analytic>
<author>
<name sortKey="Song, H D" uniqKey="Song H">H-D Song</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Tu, C C" uniqKey="Tu C">C-C Tu</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Zhang, G W" uniqKey="Zhang G">G-W Zhang</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct>
<analytic>
<author>
<name sortKey="Drosten, C" uniqKey="Drosten C">C Drosten</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Seilmaier, M" uniqKey="Seilmaier M">M Seilmaier</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Corman, Vm" uniqKey="Corman V">VM Corman</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct>
<analytic>
<author>
<name sortKey="Breban, R" uniqKey="Breban R">R Breban</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Riou, J" uniqKey="Riou J">J Riou</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Fontanet, A" uniqKey="Fontanet A">A Fontanet</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct>
<analytic>
<author>
<name sortKey="Diekmann, O" uniqKey="Diekmann O">O Diekmann</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Heesterbeek, Jap" uniqKey="Heesterbeek J">JAP Heesterbeek</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct>
<analytic>
<author>
<name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S Cauchemez</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Van Kerkhove, Md" uniqKey="Van Kerkhove M">MD Van Kerkhove</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Riley, S" uniqKey="Riley S">S Riley</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct>
<analytic>
<author>
<name sortKey="Bauch, Ct" uniqKey="Bauch C">CT Bauch</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Lloyd Smith, Jo" uniqKey="Lloyd Smith J">JO Lloyd-Smith</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Coffee, Mp" uniqKey="Coffee M">MP Coffee</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Galvani, Ap" uniqKey="Galvani A">AP Galvani</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct>
<analytic>
<author>
<name sortKey="Meyers, La" uniqKey="Meyers L">LA Meyers</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Pourbohloul, B" uniqKey="Pourbohloul B">B Pourbohloul</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Newman, Mej" uniqKey="Newman M">MEJ Newman</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct>
<analytic>
<author>
<name sortKey="Lloyd Smith, Jo" uniqKey="Lloyd Smith J">JO Lloyd-Smith</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Schreiber, Sj" uniqKey="Schreiber S">SJ Schreiber</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Kopp, Pe" uniqKey="Kopp P">PE Kopp</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Getz, Wm" uniqKey="Getz W">WM Getz</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct>
<analytic>
<author>
<name sortKey="Galvani, Ap" uniqKey="Galvani A">AP Galvani</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="May, Rm" uniqKey="May R">RM May</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct>
<analytic>
<author>
<name sortKey="Blumberg, S" uniqKey="Blumberg S">S Blumberg</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Lloyd Smith, Jo" uniqKey="Lloyd Smith J">JO Lloyd-Smith</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct>
<analytic>
<author>
<name sortKey="Khan, K" uniqKey="Khan K">K Khan</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Memish, Za" uniqKey="Memish Z">ZA Memish</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Chabbra, A" uniqKey="Chabbra A">A Chabbra</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct>
<analytic>
<author>
<name sortKey="Holmes, Kv" uniqKey="Holmes K">KV Holmes</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
</listBibl>
</div1>
</back>
</TEI>
<pmc article-type="discussion">
<pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Lancet</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Lancet</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Lancet (London, England)</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="ppub">0140-6736</issn>
<issn pub-type="epub">1474-547X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>Elsevier Ltd.</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmid">23831143</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7137078</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S0140-6736(13)61504-4</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61504-4</article-id>
<article-categories>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Article</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>Assessing the pandemic potential of MERS-CoV</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="au10">
<name>
<surname>Bauch</surname>
<given-names>Chris T</given-names>
</name>
<email>cbauch@uwaterloo.ca</email>
<xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref>
<xref rid="aff2" ref-type="aff">b</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="au20">
<name>
<surname>Oraby</surname>
<given-names>Tamer</given-names>
</name>
<xref rid="aff2" ref-type="aff">b</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="aff1">
<label>a</label>
Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>b</label>
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pmc-release">
<day>5</day>
<month>7</month>
<year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on .</pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub" iso-8601-date="2013-08-30">
<season>24-30 August</season>
<year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>5</day>
<month>7</month>
<year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>382</volume>
<issue>9893</issue>
<fpage>662</fpage>
<lpage>664</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2013</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder>Elsevier Ltd</copyright-holder>
<license>
<license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<related-article related-article-type="article-reference" id="d32e278" ext-link-type="doi" xlink:href="10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61492-0"></related-article>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body>
<p id="para10">The emergence in 2012 of a new disease-causing coronavirus has generated substantial concern. As of June 26, 2013, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) had caused 77 laboratory-confirmed cases and 40 deaths.
<xref rid="bib1" ref-type="bibr">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
The virus is related to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) that emerged in 2002–03. And, as SARS-CoV had during its prepandemic stage, MERS-CoV has probably been transmitted from an unknown animal host to human beings repeatedly in the past year.
<xref rid="bib2" ref-type="bibr">2</xref>
,
<xref rid="bib3" ref-type="bibr">3</xref>
Cases of human-to-human transmission have also been documented in several countries.
<xref rid="bib1" ref-type="bibr">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
This raises an important question: does MERS-CoV have the potential to cause a pandemic?</p>
<p id="para20">In
<italic>The Lancet,</italic>
Romulus Breban and colleagues
<xref rid="bib4" ref-type="bibr">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
address this question. Mathematical epidemiologists often use a simple but useful measure called the basic reproduction number (R
<sub>0</sub>
)—the average number of infections caused by one infected individual in a fully susceptible population.
<xref rid="bib5" ref-type="bibr">5</xref>
,
<xref rid="bib6" ref-type="bibr">6</xref>
,
<xref rid="bib7" ref-type="bibr">7</xref>
,
<xref rid="bib8" ref-type="bibr">8</xref>
If R
<sub>0</sub>
is greater than 1, cases could grow exponentially and cause a full-blown epidemic (
<xref rid="fig1" ref-type="fig">figure</xref>
). By contrast, if R
<sub>0</sub>
is less than 1, then transmission is guaranteed to fade away, other things being equal. A primary task upon emergence of a new pathogen is estimation of its R
<sub>0</sub>
.
<xref rid="bib6" ref-type="bibr">6</xref>
,
<xref rid="bib7" ref-type="bibr">7</xref>
,
<xref rid="bib8" ref-type="bibr">8</xref>
<fig id="fig1">
<label>Figure</label>
<caption>
<p>Early generations of infection transmission according to whether R
<sub>0</sub>
is greater than or less than 1</p>
<p>R
<sub>0</sub>
=basic reproduction number.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="gr1_lrg"></graphic>
</fig>
</p>
<p id="para30">Estimation of R
<sub>0</sub>
during the prepandemic stage can be plagued by data uncertainty and variability, however. The number of secondary infections caused by an index case can be highly variable.
<xref rid="bib8" ref-type="bibr">8</xref>
,
<xref rid="bib9" ref-type="bibr">9</xref>
,
<xref rid="bib10" ref-type="bibr">10</xref>
Sometimes, an individual with a highly infectious disease will only cause a few infections. Conversely, individuals with a disease of normally low infectiousness can occasionally cause many infections. This effect is compounded by the small number of confirmed cases during the prepandemic stage, and the difficulty of identifying whether the earliest patients were infected by other human beings or by animals. Additionally, if R
<sub>0</sub>
is not much larger than 1 (ie, between 1 and about 1·5), there is a fair chance that transmission will fade out anyway. Hence we cannot conclude that R
<sub>0</sub>
is less than 1 just because secondary transmission seems to be low, as is the case for MERS-CoV so far. Using intuition to estimate whether R
<sub>0</sub>
is greater than or less than 1 might not be accurate during the prepandemic stage, necessitating investigation using statistical methods.</p>
<p id="para40">Breban and colleagues
<xref rid="bib4" ref-type="bibr">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
apply a specialised statistical method to estimate the R
<sub>0</sub>
of MERS-CoV.
<xref rid="bib11" ref-type="bibr">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
By carefully constructing different scenarios for who infected whom in recent MERS-CoV clusters, the investigators compute R
<sub>0</sub>
under best-case and worst-case scenarios for MERS-CoV transmission trees. In the worst-case scenario, R
<sub>0</sub>
is only 0·69 (95% CI 0·50–0·92). Despite the small number of confirmed cases so far, the upper 95% CI on the R
<sub>0</sub>
is less than 1, meaning that MERS-CoV is unlikely to cause a pandemic, although a 99·7% CI might also have been useful to estimate pandemic risk, in addition to the standard 95% interval. For comparison, the investigators estimate that R
<sub>0</sub>
was 0·80 (95% CI 0·54–1·13) for prepandemic SARS-CoV in southeast Asia (2002–03).</p>
<p id="para50">Breban and colleagues
<xref rid="bib4" ref-type="bibr">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
also provide calculations that enable the R
<sub>0</sub>
estimates to be updated as more information about new MERS-CoV cases is reported. If the next index patient infects eight or more individuals, the investigators estimate that there is a 5% chance that R
<sub>0</sub>
is actually above 1, under the worst-case scenario.</p>
<p id="para60">Breban and colleagues
<xref rid="bib4" ref-type="bibr">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
do a thorough job accounting for how their conclusions might be impacted by the quality of surveillance systems, the possibility of symptomatic and mild infections, and the network structure of who infected whom within MERS-CoV clusters. Other factors are more difficult to account for because the investigators would have to know how the situation might change in the future. For example, very recent reports document six asymptomatic infections.
<xref rid="bib1" ref-type="bibr">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
Additionally, R
<sub>0</sub>
might change seasonally according to climate, school calendars, or yearly gatherings such as pilgrimages that put individuals in closer proximity to one another.
<xref rid="bib12" ref-type="bibr">
<sup>12</sup>
</xref>
If such gatherings involve greater contact between humans and infected animals, they would also create an opportunity for more disease introductions from animal populations.</p>
<p id="para70">Another potential future development is that MERS-CoV might start evolving, as SARS-CoV did. In the case of SARS-CoV, several mutations enabled the spike glycoprotein of the virus to bind with the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 human receptor, making it much easier for the virus to infect humans and thus probably increasing the R
<sub>0</sub>
of the virus.
<xref rid="bib13" ref-type="bibr">
<sup>13</sup>
</xref>
Evolution presents a particularly relevant challenge for estimating R
<sub>0</sub>
from a series of outbreaks distributed through time. The approach used by Breban and colleagues
<xref rid="bib4" ref-type="bibr">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
implicitly assumes that R
<sub>0</sub>
does not change. Hence, a trend towards increasing cluster sizes would be interpreted by their method as natural variability unrelated to virus adaptation. If cluster sizes were actually growing because the virus was evolving a higher R
<sub>0</sub>
, the method would underestimate the actual, more evolved R
<sub>0</sub>
. Therefore, the significance of a large, new cluster might be misinterpreted. A method that allows for the estimated R
<sub>0</sub>
to rise or fall over time might capture movement toward the R
<sub>0</sub>
=1 threshold caused by viral adaptation or seasonality, although the amount of data available for MERS-CoV probably does not permit this at present.</p>
<p id="para80">To maximise our chances of containing MERS-CoV infection, we need continuing research, including updated R
<sub>0</sub>
estimates and methodological refinements. However, the analysis by Breban and colleagues
<xref rid="bib4" ref-type="bibr">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
concludes that MERS-CoV—in its current guise—is unlikely to cause a pandemic.</p>
</body>
<back>
<ref-list id="bibl10">
<title>References</title>
<ref id="bib1">
<label>1</label>
<element-citation publication-type="other" id="sbref10">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<collab>WHO</collab>
</person-group>
<article-title>Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) update</article-title>
<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.who.int/csr/don/2013_06_26/en/index.html" id="interrefs10">http://www.who.int/csr/don/2013_06_26/en/index.html</ext-link>
<year>June 26, 2013</year>
<comment>(accessed June 28, 2013).</comment>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="bib2">
<label>2</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal" id="sbref20">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Song</surname>
<given-names>H-D</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Tu</surname>
<given-names>C-C</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Zhang</surname>
<given-names>G-W</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Cross-host evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus in palm civet and human</article-title>
<source>Proc Natl Acad Sci USA</source>
<volume>102</volume>
<year>2005</year>
<fpage>2430</fpage>
<lpage>2435</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">15695582</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="bib3">
<label>3</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal" id="sbref30">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Drosten</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Seilmaier</surname>
<given-names>M</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Corman</surname>
<given-names>VM</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Clinical features and virological analysis of a case of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection</article-title>
<source>Lancet Infect Dis</source>
<year>2013</year>
<comment>published online June 17.</comment>
<pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/S1473-3099(13)70154-3</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="bib4">
<label>4</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal" id="sbref40">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Breban</surname>
<given-names>R</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Riou</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Fontanet</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk</article-title>
<source>Lancet</source>
<year>2013</year>
<comment>published online July 5.</comment>
<pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61492-0</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="bib5">
<label>5</label>
<element-citation publication-type="book" id="sbref50">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Diekmann</surname>
<given-names>O</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Heesterbeek</surname>
<given-names>JAP</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source>Mathematical epidemiology of infectious diseases</source>
<year>2000</year>
<publisher-name>John Wiley & Sons</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>New York</publisher-loc>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="bib6">
<label>6</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal" id="sbref60">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Cauchemez</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Van Kerkhove</surname>
<given-names>MD</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Riley</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Transmission scenarios for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and how to tell them apart</article-title>
<source>Euro Surveill</source>
<volume>18</volume>
<year>2013</year>
<fpage>20503</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">23787162</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="bib7">
<label>7</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal" id="sbref70">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Bauch</surname>
<given-names>CT</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Lloyd-Smith</surname>
<given-names>JO</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Coffee</surname>
<given-names>MP</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Galvani</surname>
<given-names>AP</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Dynamically modelling SARS and other newly emerging respiratory illnesses: past, present, and future</article-title>
<source>Epidemiology</source>
<volume>16</volume>
<year>2005</year>
<fpage>791</fpage>
<lpage>801</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">16222170</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="bib8">
<label>8</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal" id="sbref80">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Meyers</surname>
<given-names>LA</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Pourbohloul</surname>
<given-names>B</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Newman</surname>
<given-names>MEJ</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Network theory and SARS: predicting outbreak diversity</article-title>
<source>J Theor Biol</source>
<volume>232</volume>
<year>2005</year>
<fpage>71</fpage>
<lpage>81</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">15498594</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="bib9">
<label>9</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal" id="sbref90">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Lloyd-Smith</surname>
<given-names>JO</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Schreiber</surname>
<given-names>SJ</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Kopp</surname>
<given-names>PE</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Getz</surname>
<given-names>WM</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence</article-title>
<source>Nature</source>
<volume>438</volume>
<year>2005</year>
<fpage>355</fpage>
<lpage>359</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">16292310</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="bib10">
<label>10</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal" id="sbref100">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Galvani</surname>
<given-names>AP</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>May</surname>
<given-names>RM</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Dimensions of superspreading</article-title>
<source>Nature</source>
<volume>438</volume>
<year>2005</year>
<fpage>293</fpage>
<lpage>295</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">16292292</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="bib11">
<label>11</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal" id="sbref110">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Blumberg</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Lloyd-Smith</surname>
<given-names>JO</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Inference of
<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
and transmission heterogeneity from the size distribution of stuttering chains</article-title>
<source>PLoS Comput Biol</source>
<volume>9</volume>
<year>2013</year>
<fpage>e1002993</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">23658504</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="bib12">
<label>12</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal" id="sbref120">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Khan</surname>
<given-names>K</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Memish</surname>
<given-names>ZA</given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname>Chabbra</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Global public health implications of a mass gathering in Mecca, Saudi Arabia during the midst of an influenza pandemic</article-title>
<source>J Travel Med</source>
<volume>71</volume>
<year>2010</year>
<fpage>75</fpage>
<lpage>81</lpage>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="bib13">
<label>13</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal" id="sbref130">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Holmes</surname>
<given-names>KV</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Adaptation of SARS coronavirus to humans</article-title>
<source>Science</source>
<volume>309</volume>
<year>2005</year>
<fpage>1822</fpage>
<lpage>1823</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">16166506</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
<ack>
<p>We declare that we have no conflicts of interest.</p>
</ack>
</back>
</pmc>
</record>

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/MersV1/Data/Pmc/Corpus
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 0008110 | SxmlIndent | more

Ou

HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Pmc/Corpus/biblio.hfd -nk 0008110 | SxmlIndent | more

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri

{{Explor lien
   |wiki=    Sante
   |area=    MersV1
   |flux=    Pmc
   |étape=   Corpus
   |type=    RBID
   |clé=     
   |texte=   
}}

Wicri

This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33.
Data generation: Mon Apr 20 23:26:43 2020. Site generation: Sat Mar 27 09:06:09 2021