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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Using the Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model to understand transmission dynamics of MERS-CoV in a camel herd</title><author><name sortKey="Gardner, E G" sort="Gardner, E G" uniqKey="Gardner E" first="E. G." last="Gardner">E. G. Gardner</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff0005">University of Guelph, Ontario Veterinary College, Population Medicine, Guelph/CA</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ali, M" sort="Ali, M" uniqKey="Ali M" first="M." last="Ali">M. Ali</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff0010">National Research Centre, Centre of Scientific Excellence for Influenza Viruses, Giza/EG</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kayali, G" sort="Kayali, G" uniqKey="Kayali G" first="G." last="Kayali">G. Kayali</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff0015">Human Link, Baabda/LB</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kelton, D" sort="Kelton, D" uniqKey="Kelton D" first="D." last="Kelton">D. Kelton</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff0005">University of Guelph, Ontario Veterinary College, Population Medicine, Guelph/CA</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Greer, A" sort="Greer, A" uniqKey="Greer A" first="A." last="Greer">A. Greer</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff0005">University of Guelph, Ontario Veterinary College, Population Medicine, Guelph/CA</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmc">7129823</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7129823</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7129823</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.ijid.2016.11.312</idno><idno type="pmid">NONE</idno><date when="2016">2016</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000590</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000590</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Using the Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model to understand transmission dynamics of MERS-CoV in a camel herd</title><author><name sortKey="Gardner, E G" sort="Gardner, E G" uniqKey="Gardner E" first="E. G." last="Gardner">E. G. Gardner</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff0005">University of Guelph, Ontario Veterinary College, Population Medicine, Guelph/CA</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ali, M" sort="Ali, M" uniqKey="Ali M" first="M." last="Ali">M. Ali</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff0010">National Research Centre, Centre of Scientific Excellence for Influenza Viruses, Giza/EG</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kayali, G" sort="Kayali, G" uniqKey="Kayali G" first="G." last="Kayali">G. Kayali</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff0015">Human Link, Baabda/LB</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kelton, D" sort="Kelton, D" uniqKey="Kelton D" first="D." last="Kelton">D. Kelton</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff0005">University of Guelph, Ontario Veterinary College, Population Medicine, Guelph/CA</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Greer, A" sort="Greer, A" uniqKey="Greer A" first="A." last="Greer">A. Greer</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff0005">University of Guelph, Ontario Veterinary College, Population Medicine, Guelph/CA</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">International Journal of Infectious Diseases</title><idno type="ISSN">1201-9712</idno><idno type="eISSN">1878-3511</idno><imprint><date when="2016">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader></TEI><pmc article-type="abstract"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Int J Infect Dis</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Int. J. Infect. Dis</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>International Journal of Infectious Diseases</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1201-9712</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1878-3511</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Published by Elsevier Ltd.</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7129823</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S1201-9712(16)31530-2</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.ijid.2016.11.312</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Using the Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model to understand transmission dynamics of MERS-CoV in a camel herd</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0005"><name><surname>Gardner</surname><given-names>E.G.</given-names></name><xref rid="aff0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref><xref rid="cor0005" ref-type="corresp">⁎</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0010"><name><surname>Ali</surname><given-names>M.</given-names></name><xref rid="aff0010" ref-type="aff">b</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0015"><name><surname>Kayali</surname><given-names>G.</given-names></name><xref rid="aff0015" ref-type="aff">c</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0020"><name><surname>Kelton</surname><given-names>D.</given-names></name><xref rid="aff0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0025"><name><surname>Greer</surname><given-names>A.</given-names></name><xref rid="aff0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff0005"><label>a</label>University of Guelph, Ontario Veterinary College, Population Medicine, Guelph/CA</aff><aff id="aff0010"><label>b</label>National Research Centre, Centre of Scientific Excellence for Influenza Viruses, Giza/EG</aff><aff id="aff0015"><label>c</label>Human Link, Baabda/LB</aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor0005"><label>⁎</label>Corresponding author.</corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>22</day><month>12</month><year>2016</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on .</pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>12</month><year>2016</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>22</day><month>12</month><year>2016</year></pub-date><volume>53</volume><fpage>126</fpage><lpage>126</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright © 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2016</copyright-year><copyright-holder></copyright-holder><license><license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p></license></permissions></article-meta></front><body><p id="par0005"><bold>Purpose:</bold> Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is a zoonotic disease that emerged in 2012. To date, there have been over 1700 human cases reported. Camels appear to be the reservoir host, with infection sporadically spilling over to humans. However, little is known about the transmission dynamics of MERS-CoV in the reservoir population. We used the Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model to examine the spread of MERS-CoV within a single, closed camel herd in Egypt.</p><p id="par0010"><bold>Methods & Materials:</bold> A longitudinal study of a closed camel herd conducted from December 2014-February 2016 documented an outbreak of MERS-CoV over 8 site visits between January-May 2015. By the end of the outbreak, 96% (79/82) of all camels had been infected. Nasal swabs were tested and confirmed using the UpE and ORF1a rRT-PCR assays. We applied the 2-parameter IDEA model to cumulative incidence data to estimate R<sub>0</sub> and a control parameter (d) for the within-herd transmission using a generation time of 12 days (range: 10-15 days). The best fit R<sub>0</sub> and d parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood. We attempted to project the expected time course of the outbreak by iteratively fitting successive generations of data using a limited number of epidemic generations.</p><p id="par0015"><bold>Results:</bold> The best-fit estimate for R<sub>0</sub> was 2.62 (95% CI: 2.20-3.20) and for d was 0.09 (95% CI: 0.06-0.13). Parameter estimates stabilized at 5 generations, however, final outbreak size projections were underestimated until the full dataset was used (range: 38-90). Model performance was weaker when higher values of R<sub>0</sub> were estimated, consistent with previous applications of the IDEA model.</p><p id="par0020"><bold>Conclusion:</bold> Using a simple model and cumulative incidence data, our results provide a preliminary estimate of R<sub>0</sub> for camel-to-camel transmission of MERS-CoV. Our findings suggest that infection within a susceptible camel herd spreads rapidly (R<sub>0</sub> > 2.5) with very little decay of the transmission dynamics (d<0.1). These findings are consistent with a pathogen that causes mild or asymptomatic infection in the reservoir host population with little to no active intervention to prevent spread. This paper highlights the need for further epidemiological studies, which in turn will support evidence-based decisions regarding interventions aimed at reducing zoonotic transmission.</p></body></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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